Workflow
人民币与美元“双强”格局
icon
Search documents
汇率刷新逾1年来高位 人民币与美元“双强”格局显现
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan (RMB) is exhibiting strong resilience against the US dollar, achieving a one-year high while the dollar index is fluctuating upwards, indicating a "dual strong" pattern in the global currency market [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Performance - On November 25, the RMB exchange rate reached its highest level in over a year, with both onshore and offshore RMB against the US dollar recovering above the 7.09 mark [1]. - The three major RMB exchange rate indices against a basket of currencies have also reached new highs since April 2025, with the CFETS index at 98.22, the BIS index at 104.66, and the SDR index at 92.60 [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Strength - The strong performance of the RMB is attributed to its relative strength against non-USD currencies in terms of fundamentals and capital flows, as well as the continuous release of appreciation signals from the central parity rate [1]. - Analysts note that China's export performance has exceeded expectations this year, and the strengthening of the domestic capital market since July has increased demand for currency settlement, boosting market confidence in the RMB [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts believe that the upward space for the dollar index is limited, while the RMB is expected to remain strong, supported by seasonal demand for currency settlement in the fourth quarter [3]. - The potential for the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates may lead to a weaker dollar, which could increase corporate demand for currency settlement [3]. - The current cross-border capital flows in China are stabilizing, with a balanced supply and demand for foreign exchange, contributing to a more stable market outlook [3].