联系我们 | yicairi@yicai.com 第一财经研究院人民币名义有效汇率指数（NEER）在过去两周（2025年12月25日-2026年1月7日）上升了0.74%，收于97.8。 剔除了通胀影响的第一财经研究院人民币实际有效汇率指数（REER）在过去两周上升了0.84%，收于143.1。 年初以来，NEER升幅为0.40%，REER升幅为0.51%。 文 | 李嘉怡 第一财经研究院研究员 —— ...

2、离岸人民币外汇市场 12月，离岸（CNH）人民币兑美元即期汇率升值，在岸（CNY）人民币兑美元即期汇率升值。 即期市场：12月31日，CNH兑美元即期汇率收于6.9755，较上月末升值1.37%；CNY兑美元即期汇率收于6.9890，较上月末升值1.29%；日均平均价差 （CNY-CNH的绝对值）为59BP，较上月增加11BP。CFETS人民币汇率指数、参考BIS货币篮子、参考SDR货币篮子的人民币汇率指数分别为97.64、 104.42、92.45，分别较上月末下降0.29%、下降0.05%、下降0.01%。 汇率衍生品市场：价格方面，CNH 1年期掉期点收于-1277BP，较上月末上升74BP；CNY 1年期掉期点收于-1125BP，较上月末上升171BP。在岸和离岸日均 掉期点差（CNH-CNY）的绝对值为86BP，较上月上升16BP。成交量方面，2025年12月，港交所USD/CNH期货标准合约成交量为178.37万张，较上月减少 6.07%，月末未平仓合约3.23万张，较上月减少5.73%。港交所USD/CNH期权合约成交55张，较上月增加358.3%，月末未平仓合约309张，较上月减少5.2% ...

每经AI快讯，1月5日，中国外汇交易中心（CFETS）：12月31日人民币汇率指数按周涨0.35至97.99。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

一、11月末广义货币余额同比增长8% 11月末，广义货币（M2）余额336.99万亿元，同比增长8%。狭义货币（M1）余额112.89万亿元，同比 增长4.9%。流通中货币（M0）余额13.74万亿元，同比增长10.6%。前十一个月净投放现金9175亿元。 二、前十一个月社会融资规模增量同比多3.99万亿元 初步统计，前十一个月社会融资规模增量累计为33.39万亿元，比上年同期多3.99万亿元。从主要分项 看，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加14.93万亿元，同比少增1.28万亿元；未贴现的银行承兑汇票增加 1605亿元，同比多增3568亿元；企业债券净融资2.24万亿元，同比多3125亿元；政府债券净融资13.15万 亿元，同比多3.61万亿元；非金融企业境内股票融资4204亿元，同比多1788亿元。 三、11月末社会融资规模存量同比增长8.5% 11月份同业拆借加权平均利率为1.42%，比上年同期低0.13个百分点。质押式回购加权平均利率为 1.44%，比上年同期低0.15个百分点。 七、与上年末比，贷款市场报价利率下降 四、前十一个月人民币贷款增加15.36万亿元 11月末，本外币贷款余额274.84万亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan (RMB) is exhibiting strong resilience against the US dollar, achieving a one-year high while the dollar index is fluctuating upwards, indicating a "dual strong" pattern in the global currency market [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Performance - On November 25, the RMB exchange rate reached its highest level in over a year, with both onshore and offshore RMB against the US dollar recovering above the 7.09 mark [1]. - The three major RMB exchange rate indices against a basket of currencies have also reached new highs since April 2025, with the CFETS index at 98.22, the BIS index at 104.66, and the SDR index at 92.60 [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Strength - The strong performance of the RMB is attributed to its relative strength against non-USD currencies in terms of fundamentals and capital flows, as well as the continuous release of appreciation signals from the central parity rate [1]. - Analysts note that China's export performance has exceeded expectations this year, and the strengthening of the domestic capital market since July has increased demand for currency settlement, boosting market confidence in the RMB [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts believe that the upward space for the dollar index is limited, while the RMB is expected to remain strong, supported by seasonal demand for currency settlement in the fourth quarter [3]. - The potential for the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates may lead to a weaker dollar, which could increase corporate demand for currency settlement [3]. - The current cross-border capital flows in China are stabilizing, with a balanced supply and demand for foreign exchange, contributing to a more stable market outlook [3].

Core Viewpoint - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index on November 21 is reported at 98.22, reflecting a 0.39 increase from the previous trading week [1] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Indices - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index increased by 0.39 compared to the last trading day on November 14 [1] - The BIS currency basket index for RMB on November 21 is 104.66, up by 0.50 from November 14 [1] - The SDR currency basket index for RMB on November 21 is 92.60, showing an increase of 0.34 from November 14 [1]

Group 1: Monetary Supply - As of the end of October, the broad money supply (M2) reached 335.13 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.2% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 112 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [1] - The currency in circulation (M0) amounted to 13.55 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 10.6% [1] Group 2: Social Financing - The cumulative increase in social financing for the first ten months was 30.9 trillion yuan, exceeding the previous year's figure by 3.83 trillion yuan [2] - The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 14.52 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 1.16 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [2] - Net financing through corporate bonds reached 1.82 trillion yuan, up by 1.36 trillion yuan year-on-year [2] Group 3: Loan and Deposit Growth - The total RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan in the first ten months, with household loans rising by 739.6 billion yuan and corporate loans increasing by 13.79 trillion yuan [4] - RMB deposits grew by 23.32 trillion yuan in the first ten months, with household deposits increasing by 11.39 trillion yuan [5] - The total balance of RMB loans was 270.61 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [4] Group 4: Interest Rates - The weighted average interbank lending rate in October was 1.39%, down by 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year [6] - The one-year loan market quoted interest rate was 3.00%, and the rate for loans over five years was 3.50%, both lower by 0.1 percentage points compared to the end of last year [7] Group 5: Exchange Rates - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index was 97.61, a decrease of 3.8% compared to the end of last year [8] - The RMB appreciated by 1.42% against the US dollar, while it depreciated by 8.38% against the euro [8]

Core Points - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index decreased by 0.13 to 97.83 as of November 14 [1] - The BIS currency basket RMB exchange rate index increased by 0.03 to 104.16 [2] - The SDR currency basket RMB exchange rate index fell by 0.08 to 92.26 [2] Summary by Category - **CFETS RMB Exchange Rate Index** - The index stands at 97.83, reflecting a weekly decline of 0.13 [1] - **BIS Currency Basket RMB Exchange Rate Index** - The index is reported at 104.16, showing an increase of 0.03 [2] - **SDR Currency Basket RMB Exchange Rate Index** - The index is at 92.26, indicating a decrease of 0.08 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has announced an increase in the central parity rate of the RMB against the USD, indicating a strengthening of the Chinese currency in the foreign exchange market [1] Exchange Rate Summary - The central parity rate for the RMB against the USD is set at 7.0825, an increase of 40 basis points from the previous day's rate of 7.0865 [1] - As of the latest update, the onshore and offshore RMB rates against the USD are reported at 7.0965 and 7.0968, respectively [1] RMB Index Performance - All three major RMB indices have risen, reaching their highest levels since April 2025 [1] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index is reported at 97.96, the BIS currency basket RMB exchange rate index at 104.19, and the SDR currency basket RMB exchange rate index at 92.34 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Renminbi (RMB) against a basket of currencies indicates a robust upward trend, with all three major RMB indices reaching new highs since April 2025, reflecting the currency's strength against non-USD currencies and suggesting stability at a reasonable equilibrium level [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Index Performance - The CFETS RMB Index, BIS currency basket RMB Index, and SDR currency basket RMB Index have all shown significant increases, with the CFETS index rising by 0.48% since the end of October, marking a nearly seven-month high [2]. - The RMB's strength against multiple currencies, particularly the South Korean Won and New Zealand Dollar, has been notable, with appreciation exceeding 1% [2]. Group 2: RMB Against USD - The RMB's exchange rate against the USD has remained stable, fluctuating within a narrow range of 7.10 to 7.14, despite a strengthening USD index [4]. - Factors such as a recovering domestic capital market, expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and stable foreign trade surplus are contributing to the RMB's resilience [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of maintaining RMB stability at a reasonable equilibrium level, with expectations for the RMB to continue a strong performance due to year-end settlement demands and a solid economic foundation [5]. - Analysts predict that the RMB will maintain a strong bias in the short term, with ongoing attention needed on USD trends and RMB middle rate adjustments [5].