有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年08月21日星期四 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 有色板块集体小幅反弹，建议暂时观望或少量逢高加空，09合约上 方压力区间21000-21200，下方支撑区间20000-20200，可买入 虚值看跌期权做保护。氧化铝现货价格小幅下跌，在产产能增加， 消息影响发酵过后盘面回落，建议逢高可适量 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 8 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 美股下挫，避险需求上升，市场关 注杰克逊霍尔会议 | | 铜 | 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 国内旺季临近，产业支撑增强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 观点参考 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨日金价震荡运行。盘面上来看，海外 ...

每经AI快讯，8月21日纽约尾盘，美元指数涨0.41%报98.65，非美货币多数下跌，欧元兑美元跌0.39%报 1.1606，英镑兑美元跌0.32%报1.3413，澳元兑美元跌0.20%报0.6421，美元兑日元涨0.73%报148.3780， 美元兑加元涨0.25%报1.3910，美元兑瑞郎涨0.57%报0.8087。 每日经济新闻 ...

南华期货铜风险管理日报 2025年8月21日 铜价在周三小幅下滑，说明当价格高企后，下游需求短时间无法消化。短期来看，铜价或继续以震荡为主。 随着时间的推移，下游终端对于美国关税造成的8月需求负反馈开始迟疑，且认为现在的价格已经基本兑现了 此前的预期，不过需要一定的时间来消化价格的上升。宏观方面仍需关注鲍威尔在全球央行年会上的发言。 短期来看，美元指数在下方的支撑较强，对于有色金属整体估值起到一定的压力作用。 利多因素： 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 78640 | 73000-80000 | 11.64% | 22.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铜风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

每经AI快讯，8月20日纽约尾盘，美元指数跌0.03%报98.25，非美货币多数下跌。欧元兑美元涨0.04%报 1.1651，英镑兑美元跌0.27%报1.3456，澳元兑美元跌0.32%报0.6434，美元兑日元跌0.25%报147.3070， 美元兑加元涨0.05%报1.3875，美元兑瑞郎跌0.45%报0.8042。 每日经济新闻 ...

人民币汇率于2025年8月19日：在窄幅震荡中寻求平衡 在2025年8月19日的金融市场上，人民币兑美元汇率呈现出一种微妙的平衡状态，窄幅震荡成为当日汇市的主旋律。这一动态反映出在全球经济复杂多变的 背景下，人民币汇率形成机制的日益成熟，以及市场参与者预期的逐步理性化。 市场表现：在岸与离岸的微妙差异 然而，中国经济基本面依然稳健，为人民币汇率提供了内在支撑。最新公布的经济数据显示，工业生产、消费等关键指标逐步回暖。同时，中国央行保持货 币政策稳健偏宽松的基调，有助于稳定市场预期。此外，中国跨境资本流动整体保持平衡，外汇储备规模稳定，这些都为人民币汇率提供了重要保障。监管 部门持续加强对跨境资本流动的宏观审慎管理，有效防范了短期投机性资本流动对汇率的冲击。 未来展望与风险管理 短期来看，人民币兑美元汇率可能继续维持双向波动格局。一方面，美元强势仍将对人民币构成压力；另一方面，中国经济基本面的支撑以及政策层面的维 稳意图，将限制人民币的贬值空间。中期而言，随着美联储货币政策路径逐渐明朗，以及中国经济持续复苏，人民币汇率有望重回升值通道。特别是如果中 国经济数据持续向好，将增强国际投资者对人民币资产的信心，推动人 ...

来源：滚动播报 周三（8月20日）纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数下跌0.05%，报98.219点，北京时间10:47涨至98.441点刷新日 高，随后持续震荡下行，02:00美联储发布偏鹰派的会议纪要之前一分钟刷新日低至98.079点。彭博美 元指数跌0.05%，报1206.41点，全天持续震荡下行，整体交投区间为1208.95-1205.36点。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term market sentiment for precious metals is cautious, but long - term factors support the gold price. Copper prices may continue to fluctuate, and the support level has been raised. Aluminum prices may experience a callback, while alumina prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, and a sell - outside - buy - inside strategy can be considered. Nickel - related products show different trends, and tin prices may continue to fluctuate. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a wide - range shock, and the industrial silicon market is affected by relevant policies [3][17][36][62][75][89][105][116]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Sentiment and Fundamentals**: The spot price of gold is at a discount of 4.18 yuan/gram to the futures price, indicating cautious short - term market sentiment. The net profit of Laopu Gold in the first half of the year increased by 285.8% year - on - year, showing demand resilience. The SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 3.2 tons to 962.2 tons [3]. - **Macro Factors**: The market focuses on the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting and the speeches of Fed officials. Trump's appointment of an interim director pressures the independence of monetary policy, and the market expects an 86.1% probability of a rate cut in September, which supports the gold price in the long term [3]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: In the short term, copper prices may continue to fluctuate, and the previous support level of 77,000 yuan per ton can be raised to 78,000 yuan per ton. The Fed's meeting minutes and Powell's speech may have limited impact on copper prices, while the strong support of the US dollar index exerts pressure on the valuation of non - ferrous metals [17]. - **Market Data**: The latest price of SHFE copper futures main contract is 78,640 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The spot prices of various regions also showed a decline, and the inventory of SHFE copper and LME copper decreased to varying degrees [18][21][34]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: The expansion of the US tariff scope on aluminum has a certain impact on China's exports, and the price may experience a callback. Considering the peak season in September and the rate - cut expectation, the decline is likely to be a correction rather than a reversal [36]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals of alumina are weak, with an oversupply situation expected in the second half of the year. The spot price is continuously falling, and the futures price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with the cost of imported ore from Guinea as a support level [36]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of scrap aluminum remains high, and the supply of scrap aluminum may decrease in the future, providing strong support for the price of aluminum alloy. The demand is currently good, and the futures price generally follows the trend of SHFE aluminum, with a price difference of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [37]. Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, with strong processing fees. The demand is weak during the traditional off - season. LME inventories are falling, with a certain risk of short - squeeze, but the support is weak [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: Considering the pattern of strong external and weak internal zinc prices, a sell - outside - buy - inside strategy can be considered. In the short term, the price is expected to be volatile [62]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: Nickel ore is relatively stable, with high domestic arrival inventories. Nickel iron is relatively firm in the short term, and stainless steel shows a weak trend. Sulfuric acid nickel has certain price - support sentiment, and the MHP market is in short supply [75]. - **Macro Factors**: The strengthening of the US dollar index at the beginning of the week suppresses the market, but the expectation of a rate cut in September is still strong [75]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: The repeated postponement of the full resumption of production in Myanmar's tin mines has supported the tin price, and in the short term, the price may continue to fluctuate [89]. - **Market Data**: The latest price of SHFE tin futures main contract is 267,840 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The inventories of SHFE tin and LME tin decreased [90][100]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The market is over - hyped, and there is a sign of inventory reduction in the upstream and inventory replenishment in the downstream. The futures market is dominated by sentiment, and the price is expected to have a wide - range shock [105]. - **Price Data**: The price of lithium carbonate futures shows different changes, and the spot prices of various lithium products also have corresponding fluctuations [106][110]. Industrial Silicon - **Policy Impact**: The joint meeting of multiple departments to regulate the photovoltaic industry may have an impact on the industrial silicon market [116]. - **Market Data**: The prices of industrial silicon in various regions decreased, and the futures price also declined. The prices of related products such as polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells also showed different trends [117][125][126].

贵金属产业日报 2025-08-20 与此前普京的"和平"措辞形成反差，或预示俄方实际达成协议意愿较低。后续谈判若取得实质性进展，或 进一步释放金价回调压力，但若不及预期也可能继续抬升避险买盘需求。操作上建议，黄金短期维持观望 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 772.68 | -2.38 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 9042 | -145 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 191474 | 39 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 318678 | -23822 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 160754 | -1365 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 114342 | -5142 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 36582 | 249 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 1140199 | -9247 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) ...

来源：金老虎首席分析师 金老虎：美元劲升压金价，降息疑云绕九月，俄美谈罢避险淡 交易的进阶始于对侥幸的剥离，严守规则比侥幸获利更显底气。K 线图谱从不缺波动，缺的是在无序 走势中恪守纪律的坚韧，唯有扛住诱惑考验，才能握住盈利主线，而交易的本质，正是锤炼风险控制力 而非盲目性的投机。 黄金行情分析 简单回顾下昨天的行情，昨天金价走的也是非常简单，早间弱势下跌到3326后形成拉升反弹，欧盘阶段 最高也是反弹到3345的位置 ，随后形成阶梯式下跌，美盘阶段最低价格也是跌到了3315区间的位置， 金价昨天走出这样的弱势形态主要原因是什么，简单进行梳理下： 一、美联储政策预期主导市场情绪 美俄首脑于 8 月 15 日在阿拉斯加举行峰会，尽管未达成实质性协议，但市场对地缘冲突升级的担忧有 所缓解。特朗普在会后推动俄乌直接谈判，并表示 "不认为需停火才谈"，这种外交进展降低了黄金的 避险需求。此外，市场对中东局势的关注度下降，叠加原油价格因欧佩克 + 增产预期持续疲软（8 月上 半月累跌 8%），进一步削弱了黄金作为 "危机对冲工具" 的吸引力。 四、经济数据的矛盾性强化谨慎情绪 尽管 7 月非农就业数据疲软（新增 7.3 ...