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中金缪延亮:提升人民币储备货币地位
中金点睛· 2026-01-22 23:37
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical opportunities and necessary measures for enhancing the internationalization and reserve status of the Renminbi (RMB), emphasizing the need for a multi-faceted approach to overcome existing barriers and challenges [2][17]. Group 1: Characteristics and Determinants of International Reserve Currencies - International reserve currencies are defined as currencies widely accepted for international payments, with their status reflecting a country's comprehensive national strength and international standing [4]. - The three main drivers of a currency's reserve status are market forces, policy support, and historical inertia, with market forces being the most fundamental [4][5]. - The strength of market forces is determined by a currency's ability to meet the three primary demands for foreign exchange reserves: precautionary international payment needs, exchange rate stability needs, and value preservation needs [5][6]. Group 2: Progress and Significance of RMB as a Reserve Currency - Before the 2008 global financial crisis, RMB internationalization was limited, but post-crisis, demand for RMB surged due to China's economic recovery and trade rebound [14]. - The People's Bank of China has actively promoted RMB internationalization by enhancing its use in cross-border trade and investment, including the establishment of various mechanisms for RMB-denominated investments [14][16]. - Despite recent progress, RMB's share in global foreign exchange reserves remains below 2%, indicating significant room for improvement compared to its weight in the SDR basket [17]. Group 3: Main Obstacles to Enhancing RMB's Reserve Currency Status - The primary internal obstacles to RMB's reserve currency status include a mismatch between trade settlement and trade volume, and insufficient development and openness of the financial market [19][20]. - Trade settlement in RMB is significantly lower than China's trade volume, with only 3.87% of global trade settlements conducted in RMB, highlighting the need for increased acceptance and use of RMB in international transactions [22]. - Factors such as market position, financing conditions, and historical inertia contribute to the low adoption of RMB for trade settlements [23][24]. Group 4: "Three Carriages" to Enhance RMB's Reserve Currency Status - The article proposes a "three carriages" approach to enhance RMB's reserve currency status, focusing on promoting cross-border trade settlement in RMB, advancing financial market development and openness, and leveraging regionalization to boost RMB's international use [33][34]. - Key measures include increasing the use of RMB in major commodity imports, providing economic incentives for businesses to settle in RMB, and optimizing cross-border RMB settlement services for key enterprises [35][36]. - Developing both offshore and onshore RMB markets is crucial, with recommendations for improving market infrastructure and expanding the range of RMB-denominated financial products available to international investors [37][38].