中国连续9月增持黄金，还是买的太少了？特朗普对瑞士加征39%关税 7月中国央行又悄悄往自家金库塞了6万盎司黄金，连续第9个月"蚂蚁搬家式囤金"，总储备飙到7396万盎司（约2300吨）。 而美国华尔街为了唱空黄金，开始说，随着中国央行增持黄金的量越来越少，很可能在未来几个月的时间里停止增持。没有了央行的助力，黄金的价格可 能会大幅回落。 特朗普政府为了巩固美元霸权终于开始对瑞士动手了，宣布要对瑞士加征惩罚性的关税，这个举动却引发了黄金价格的大幅度波动。 中国央行增持的黄金的脚步会如外资所预测的那样停下吗？中国对黄金的持有量是不是还是太少了？ 中国"囤金术"：细水长流背后的暗战逻辑 根据央视财经新闻报道，由于瑞士联邦主席没有能够和美国总统特朗普达成贸易协议，所以特朗普决定要对瑞士征收39%的惩罚性关税。 美国媒体路透社的报道说，瑞士联邦主席凯勒-祖特尔访美期间未能与特朗普会面，仅与美国国务卿鲁比奥举行了会谈，瑞士方面提出的10%关税税率被 美方拒绝。 预计这个惩罚性的关税将会于今日开始正式实施。 受到这件事情和中国央行增持黄金的双重影响，国际黄金价格再度创出新高，纽约期货黄金交易所黄金价格最高涨至3534美元。 ...

核心观点 地缘动向复盘: 本周聚焦上海合作组织天津峰会。上海合作组织是迄今唯一在中国境内成立、以中国城市命名、总 部设在中国境内的区域性国际组织。近年来，中国与上合组织国家经济联系密切，不断巩固传统优势产业的合作基 础，扩展在数字、绿色、节能等新兴产业领域的试点探索。在中国面对美国日益严峻的战略竞争与贸易打压趋势下， 稳定与上合组织国家的关系，将是中国破解西方国家战略包围、营造有序外部环境的重要抓手。8 月 31 日举行的上 合组织天津峰会，中国将与各成员国、观察员国、对话伙伴国共同擎画上合组织发展新蓝图，推动中国与上合组织 合作迈向新的台阶。 国金观点周观察： （1）上合组织天津峰会是上合组织成立以来规模最大的一届峰会。2025 年上海合作组织天津峰会，将是中国第五 次主办上合组织峰会，也将是上合组织成立以来规模最大的一届峰会。届时，将有包括俄罗斯总统普京、印度总理 莫迪、土耳其总统埃尔多安、印度尼西亚总统普拉博沃、越南政府总理范明政等 20 多位外国领导人和 10 位国际组 织负责人访华，共同参加本届上合组织天津峰会。 （2）上合组织成为中国外交的基本盘。近年来，上合组织国家逐渐成为美国战略打压的主要对象 ...

与此同时，近年地缘政治的发展，也让中东投资者感到须增加在美欧以外地区的投资，以分散风险。香 港市场国际化并与内地市场高效互联，运作方式及规管环境与国际最佳标准无缝衔接，是他们实现多元 资产配置及财资管理的理想平台。 陈茂波表示，自去年九月底以来，港股市场表现畅旺，吸引了更多中东资金对香港金融市场的兴趣。最 近多只在港上市集资的新股，都有来自中东的资金作为其基石投资者，投资金额均过亿美元，反映港股 正吸纳更多元的新资金。从趋势来看，根据国际货币基金组织的数据，沙特、科威特和巴林三个海湾地 区国家对香港证券投资的头寸， 在2023年增至63亿美元，五年间年均复合增长率约17%。 香港与中东监管机构和市场持份者的交流合作亦持续提升。去年陈茂波到访沙特时与其资本市场管理局 和两地业界举行圆桌会议，今年他们亦多次访港，其中今年五月港交所与沙特证交所集团合办的"香港 —沙特资本市场论坛"便是重点活动。今年五月，香港证监会也与阿布扎比金管局签订了备忘录，加强 在监管信息交换方面的合作。 中东国家希望加快当地的基建发展、引入更多的创新科技，并推动产业发展，这同样为香港初创公司、 科创企业和专业服务公司带来大量的商机，尤其为科 ...

格隆汇8月24日｜香港财政司司长陈茂波以《从沙特超级杯说起》为题发表网志称，除中东地区，香港 正加强中亚的联动。一间哈萨克斯坦天然资源公司将于下周在港上市。这次上市是全球首个雨港交所和 哈萨克斯坦阿斯塔纳国际交易所(AIX)同步上市项目，亦是中亚地区首只以人民币计价股票。标志着香 港与中亚的金融市场合作，可説是人民币国际化新一页。 ...

Group 1 - The core question raised by a user on a U.S. social platform is why China continues to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds despite the U.S. being unable to repay its debts, highlighting a complex international financial game and strategic considerations [2] - U.S. Treasury bonds are key assets in the global financial system, characterized by high security, liquidity, and a significant scale, making them a preferred choice for foreign exchange reserves [6][8] - China's investment in U.S. Treasury bonds is driven by rational financial logic rather than emotional factors, as it seeks safe and liquid investment channels for its substantial dollar reserves accumulated from trade surpluses [11] Group 2 - As the U.S. debt continues to grow, China is adjusting its strategy by increasing investments in gold and raising the proportion of non-dollar assets, aiming for a more diversified foreign exchange reserve structure [13][29] - Purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds allows China to manage foreign exchange reserve risks while providing stable returns and liquidity, making them a preferred asset for reserve management [14][16] - The purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds also maintains the interdependence of the U.S. and Chinese economies, as the flow of dollars back to the U.S. supports American consumption [22] Group 3 - Despite benefits from purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds, there are concerns in the U.S. about the return on investment due to the large debt scale, with some U.S. politicians suggesting that the U.S. may not repay its debts [23] - The likelihood of U.S. default is extremely low, as it would lead to a collapse of the dollar's credit system and a severe economic crisis for the U.S. [25] - China's strategy adjustment and the trend of "de-dollarization" reflect a decreasing reliance on U.S. Treasury bonds, with an increasing focus on the internationalization of the yuan [27][30] Group 4 - The gradual reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings by China increases financing pressure on the U.S., and if more countries follow suit, the global dominance of the dollar could be significantly challenged [30][33] - China's decision to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds is a well-considered rational choice, allowing for effective management of foreign exchange reserves, while the ongoing adjustments do not indicate an immediate rupture in U.S.-China economic relations [33]

Core Viewpoint - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) presents significant opportunities for the asset management industry in China, driven by increased cross-border asset allocation and the growing demand for RMB-denominated assets from foreign investors [2][4]. Group 1: RMB as a Currency Anchor - The RMB has emerged as the third currency with a "currency anchor" effect, following the US dollar and the euro, influencing exchange rate policies in various countries [2][3]. - Unlike the dollar and euro, the RMB's "currency anchor" effect is not based on institutional arrangements but rather on factual linkages due to China's extensive trade relationships [2][3]. Group 2: Opportunities in Asset Management - The internationalization of the RMB and financial opening are seen as crucial opportunities for the development of the asset management industry, with a shift towards more stable institutional openings [3]. - Currently, foreign entities hold approximately 10 trillion RMB in domestic financial assets, indicating substantial growth potential for the asset management sector [4]. Group 3: Challenges in the Asset Management Industry - The entry of foreign institutions into the asset management market is expected to intensify competition, as seen in the European asset management sector, where competition from US firms has led to a decline in the number of European asset management companies [4].

Group 1 - The rise of technology is profoundly reshaping the form and boundaries of finance, with the integration of technology and finance driving technological updates in the financial sector and providing strong support for technological innovation [1] - The focus of the discussion on stablecoins should not be on the stablecoins themselves, but rather on the underlying blockchain technology that builds a new digital financial infrastructure [4][5] - The strategic significance of tokenization is increasingly prominent, as it enhances market efficiency, reduces transaction costs, and promotes the digitalization and globalization of financial markets [4][5] Group 2 - Blockchain is considered the next generation of infrastructure, particularly valuable in finance due to its decentralized physical structure and centralized logical operation, which can enhance efficiency and value in financial infrastructure [5][6] - The establishment of a self-controlled and secure financial infrastructure is crucial for financial safety, as many current financial technologies are not under domestic control [6][7] - A "dual-layer" digital currency system is advocated, where wholesale central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) support the issuance of retail stablecoins, creating a structured approach to digital currency [9][10] Group 3 - The application of central bank digital currencies in cross-border scenarios is theoretically feasible at the wholesale level, but limited at the retail level due to the sovereign nature of currencies [11] - The development of technology is seen as a driving force for the internationalization of currencies, with the integration of technology and finance being essential for the high-quality development of the Chinese economy [14][15] - Real World Assets (RWA) present a significant opportunity for developing technology finance with Chinese characteristics, as digitizing and verifying these assets could attract international investors [15]

Group 1: Military Industry - The military sector is experiencing an upward trend, driven by the intensifying geopolitical competition among major powers, with a long-term positive outlook for military investments [4][5][6] - The recent commemorative events for the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War have highlighted the importance of national defense, leading to increased military spending [5] - Key companies to focus on include major manufacturers and component suppliers such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, AVIC South Lake, and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry [4] Group 2: Non-Metallic Building Materials - The implementation of new national standards for refrigerators is expected to accelerate the demand for VIP boards, with the company Reascent Technology poised for significant growth following its acquisition of Maikelong [8][9] - The company has integrated its supply chain from fiberglass cotton to VIP core materials and VIP boards, which is anticipated to enhance its competitive edge and profitability [9] Group 3: Dairy Industry - The price of raw milk continues to decline, and a supply-demand balance is expected in the second half of 2025, benefiting from reduced production and improved demand [11][19] - Beef prices are entering an upward cycle due to supply reduction and decreased import pressures, with a projected increase in profitability for livestock companies [12][20] - The cyclical resonance between meat and milk production is expected to enhance the profitability of leading livestock companies [11][21]

8月21日，《海南自由贸易港跨境资产管理试点业务实施细则》（以下简称《实施细则》）开始生效， 初期试点规模为100亿元人民币。当天，记者从海南多家银行金融机构获悉，多家银行已积极启动该试 点业务工作。 据了解，跨境资管试点面向全球符合条件的境外机构及境外个人投资者。这一规定打破了地域和身份的 局限，让更广泛的境外投资力量有机会参与到海南自贸港的资管市场中。 此外，投资账户灵活便捷且助力人民币国际化。境外投资者在参与试点时，可在海南自贸港内银行开立 人民币银行结算账户（NRA账户）及自由贸易账户（FT账户）等，通过这些账户购买试点资管产品， 账户使用具有较高灵活性。同时，《实施细则》鼓励以人民币计价及结算，这一举措在为投资者提供便 利的同时，也将进一步推动人民币国际化进程。 中国银行海南金融研究院副院长王少辉认为，从境外投资主体看，试点面向境外机构投资者和境外个人 投资者，开放范围比之前的资本市场互联互通渠道更大。从跨境开放模式看，海南跨境资管试点采取的 是单边主动开放的模式，面向全球开放，不限特定区域，体现了海南作为自贸港更大力度、更高水平面 向全球单边开放的导向。 中国人民银行海南省分行相关负责人表示，中国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of 28.54 CNY [6][13]. Core Insights - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue and net profit of 1.047 billion CNY and 228 million CNY, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 4.49% and 66.49% [13]. - The company's investment business net income increased by 69.72% to 213 million CNY, contributing 73.54% to the adjusted revenue growth [13]. - The asset management business saw a significant increase in fee income, up 278.80% to 42 million CNY, driven by growth in asset management scale [13]. - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of the futures market under the internationalization of the RMB, leveraging its comprehensive service capabilities in risk management and asset management [13]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 926 million CNY in 2023 to 1.913 billion CNY by 2027, with a peak in 2024 at 1.810 billion CNY [4][14]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 244 million CNY in 2023 to 412 million CNY in 2027, with a notable increase of 56.9% in 2024 [4][14]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.55 CNY in 2023 to 0.93 CNY in 2027 [4][14]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain strong, peaking at 13.0% in 2024 before gradually declining to 10.7% by 2027 [4][14].