炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：读品贩子 如果AI让90%的人都失业了，接下来会发生什么？ 李华芳 | 匹兹堡大学 1 前几天我介绍了一篇文章《挤奶的姑娘出走后》。一般来说，公众号文章的传播曲线很诚实：发出后一 两天，阅读量基本就见顶了，后续增长几乎可以忽略。 可这两天我突然发现这篇文章阅读量又涨了一下。后来才知道，是微博上的赵山老师推荐了，于是带来 了一波此前没读过的流量。 在那条帖子下面，聂辉华老师转发时写了一段话，大意是：他对AI与就业的关系，比多数人都悲观。 因为"过去的技术进步是"增强型"的，帮助人更好地工作，是局部均衡；但AI是"替代型"的，可能替代 几乎所有人的工作，是一般均衡的冲击。未来或许只需要10%的人工作、修机器人，其余的人都吃喝玩 乐。这不是卢德主义。" 我认真看完那段话，觉得需要说一句：我相信自己，所以也相信你。更准确一点说，我相信那些普普通 通、但又充满创意的人。 即便原有的90%的工作被AI替代了，人也不会原地消失。人会无聊。别低估无聊，因为无聊也是一种生 产力。 2 举个我老家舟山的例子。因为有普陀山，很多人去求神拜佛。观音像前， ...

Group 1 - The core issue discussed is whether AI writing capabilities will surpass human authors, potentially leading to a transformation in the perception of human creativity [1] - Liu Chuxin's emotional acceptance speech at the Li Jiang Literature Award highlights the contrast between human experiences and AI's algorithmic content generation [1] - Liu Cixin's experience with AI-generated writing reveals a sense of loss and challenges the traditional role of authors as supreme creators [1] Group 2 - Sci-fi writer Han Song views AI as a "collaborative partner" that can inspire human creativity, but emphasizes that unique human experiences and emotions remain irreplaceable by AI [3] - Han Song believes that human creativity is linked to consciousness and emotional fluctuations, which AI has not yet fully replicated [3] - Director Yu Baimei expresses concerns about AI's rapid advancement in cultural creation, suggesting that AI could eventually surpass human imaginative limits [5] Group 3 - Some creators hold a neutral perspective, arguing that AI's emergence will not eliminate human creativity but may instead push it into new realms, similar to the impact of photography and film [5] - The relationship between art and technology is entering an unprecedented phase, necessitating a redefinition of human creativity's role in an era of coexistence with AI [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fundamental forces driving the current shifts in international order, emphasizing the need for countries, particularly the U.S., to adopt effective strategies in response to these changes [1][2]. Group 1: Fundamental Forces - Five core forces are identified as driving global dynamics: debt monetization, domestic wealth and value gaps, international order/disorder, natural disasters, and technological advancements [3][6][11]. - Debt/monetary forces shape market and economic directions, influencing the monetary order [4][7]. - Domestic wealth and value gaps are creating political order challenges, leading to the rise of populism and authoritarian leadership, which threaten democracy and the rule of law [8]. - International order is characterized by a lack of a single dominant power, increasing unilateral decisions, and rising conflicts, with a shift from multilateralism to bilateral agreements [9]. - Natural disasters are worsening, causing significant economic losses, and countries' adaptability will be crucial [10]. - Human creativity, particularly through technological innovation, can lead to both significant benefits and potential disasters [11]. Group 2: Current Strategies and Implications - Current strategies include tariff designs to enhance tax revenue and competitive advantages for domestic companies, attracting foreign investment, and optimizing global investment layouts [12]. - The management of government debt and fiscal deficits is critical, with the ability to reduce the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP being a pivotal factor for debt and currency value [7][12]. - The approach to handling these critical states will determine whether the situation is managed effectively or leads to instability [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article advocates for a perspective of "collaboration" rather than "replacement" in understanding the relationship between generative AI and human work, emphasizing the need for future intellectual property and innovation systems to focus more on preserving and stimulating human subjectivity [1][2]. Group 1: Generative AI's Impact on Work - The emergence of generative AI is likened to the invention of the camera, which democratized image creation and did not eliminate traditional art forms but rather led to new artistic movements [2][3]. - Generative AI has revolutionized efficiency in various fields, allowing tasks that once required specialized training to be completed through simple natural language commands [3][4]. - The rapid response capabilities of AI have led to anxiety among professionals regarding potential job displacement, particularly in fields like copywriting, design, and software development [4][5]. Group 2: Human Value in the Age of AI - The essence of value lies not in the tools themselves but in human creativity and decision-making, as demonstrated by the enduring relevance of painting despite the advent of photography [5][6]. - Generative AI's output quality is heavily dependent on the user's input and guidance, highlighting the importance of human insight and knowledge in the creative process [6][7]. - Humans are not merely executors but act as directors and curators, with irreplaceable abilities in recognizing problems, aesthetic considerations, and defining the meaning and value of outcomes [7][8]. Group 3: The Future of Human-AI Collaboration - The role of generative AI will increasingly be that of an "accelerator" in workflows, necessitating a redefinition of human roles in the creative chain [8][9]. - Legal frameworks surrounding intellectual property and innovation must adapt to address the unique challenges posed by AI-generated content, reaffirming the importance of human contributions [8][9]. - The rise of AI should be viewed as a reconfiguration of human roles rather than a negation of human capabilities, allowing for a broader expression of creativity and a focus on higher-level tasks [9][10].