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中国人寿(601628):营业支出减少驱动盈利超预期
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-30 07:52
Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Life Insurance is "Buy" [8] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, China Life's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 28.802 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.5%, exceeding expectations primarily due to a significant reduction in insurance service expenses [1] - The company's operating revenue was 110.177 billion yuan, down 8.9% year-on-year, while the weighted ROE was 5.53%, an increase of 1.22 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The new business value (NBV) showed a slight growth of 4.8% year-on-year, which was slightly below expectations [1][2] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, China Life's net profit was 28.802 billion yuan, a 39.5% increase year-on-year, driven by a significant decrease in insurance service expenses [1] - Operating revenue decreased to 110.177 billion yuan, down 8.9% year-on-year [1] - The weighted ROE improved to 5.53%, up 1.22 percentage points year-on-year [1] New Business Value (NBV) - The NBV experienced a slight increase, primarily attributed to a small improvement in the new business value rate [2] - New single premium income was 107.434 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.5% year-on-year, with a strong push for the sale of floating income products, which accounted for 51.72% of the first-year premium income, a significant increase year-on-year [2] Agent Workforce - As of the end of Q1 2025, the number of individual insurance agents was 596,000, a decrease of 3.1% compared to the end of the previous year, maintaining overall stability [3] - The quality of the workforce improved, with effective increases in the agent retention rate and growth rate [3] - The new marketing model "Seed Plan" is being implemented, focusing on professionalization and comprehensive transformation of the sales team [3] Investment Performance - As of the end of Q1 2025, China Life's investment assets totaled 6.82 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.1% from the end of the previous year [4] - Total investment income was 53.767 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.8%, with annualized net investment yield and total investment yield at 2.6% and 2.75%, respectively [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company expects stable growth in NBV, supported by a stable workforce and enhanced productivity, with contributions from the bancassurance channel anticipated to increase [5] - The forecasted net profit growth rates for 2025-2027 are -60.5%, 13.5%, and 29.3%, respectively [5] - The target price is set at 56.63 yuan, corresponding to a PEV of 1.0 times for 2025 [5]