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蔡昉:没有好的第一支柱,养老保险就谈不上公平
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-10-24 10:44
Core Insights - The article discusses the urgent need for reform in China's pension system due to the accelerating aging population and changing labor market dynamics, emphasizing the importance of a multi-tiered pension security system [1][4][5] Group 1: Pension System Characteristics - Over 50% of pension recipients rely on urban and rural resident pension insurance, yet discussions often focus on employee pension insurance, excluding a significant portion of the population [4] - The rise of non-standard employment and flexible job markets has led to over 60% of workers, more than 300 million people, opting for urban and rural resident pension insurance, highlighting low coverage rates among these groups [4][5] - The traditional approach to expanding pension coverage is becoming ineffective due to the diversification of employment forms driven by digital and platform economies [5][6] Group 2: Recommendations for Pension Reform - The status of the resident pension insurance system should be a key criterion for evaluating the first pillar of the pension system, as discussions excluding this aspect are incomplete [5][6] - The three pillars of pension insurance should not be viewed as equal; the first pillar must be robust to support the second and third pillars, which are currently less equitable [6] - Artificial intelligence is expected to bring revolutionary changes, necessitating a new design for pension systems to share productivity gains effectively [6][7] Group 3: Future Projections and Strategies - By 2035, the ratio of the population aged 61 and above to the working-age population is projected to increase by 4.6% annually, while labor productivity is expected to grow at 5.6% per year, outpacing the increase in dependency ratios [6][7] - AI is predicted to enhance labor productivity and GDP growth by 10% to 20% by 2035, potentially increasing the support ratio by over 7% annually if the higher estimate is realized [6][7] - Recommendations for pension reform include establishing an unconditional, non-contributory, and inclusive social pension starting from the current urban and rural resident pension system, maintaining a pay-as-you-go model for employee pensions, and promoting voluntary second and third pillars through incentivization [7]