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盛松成:消费需求对供给的促进更有效、更直接
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-03 03:04
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to boost consumption and improve investment efficiency to expand domestic demand, marking a significant shift in macroeconomic policy [1] - China's consumption potential is closely linked to economic growth and income distribution, with current per capita GDP at approximately $13,000, indicating substantial room for growth compared to developed countries [2] - The consumption rate in China is currently around 56%, significantly lower than the 70%-80% typical in developed nations, suggesting that factors such as income distribution systems are limiting consumption potential [2] Group 2 - Consumption is expected to play a larger role in economic growth this year, as external trade uncertainties and diminishing returns on traditional investments highlight the need for domestic demand stimulation [3] - The relationship between consumption and investment is not mutually exclusive; rather, they can mutually reinforce each other, with consumption driving production, employment, and further investment [3] - The current economic challenges necessitate a focus on enhancing consumption to stabilize demand and promote growth, as ineffective investment is a key issue facing the economy [3] Group 3 - The disposable income to GDP ratio in China is 60.8%, significantly lower than the 70%-85% seen in developed countries, indicating structural issues in income distribution and consumer spending tendencies [4] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption have shown positive results, with retail sales growing by 5.0% year-on-year from January to May, aided by initiatives like "trade-in" programs and consumption vouchers [4] - Improving the income distribution system is crucial for increasing consumer spending and addressing the structural contradictions between policy incentives and consumer willingness [5] Group 4 - The service sector in China faces a significant deficit in high-quality supply, particularly in travel and healthcare, with high-income groups seeking services abroad due to insufficient domestic offerings [7][8] - Learning from past manufacturing sector reforms, opening up the service industry to foreign investment could enhance competition, improve service quality, and stimulate domestic consumption [8] - It is essential to create a favorable environment for foreign enterprises to invest long-term in China, which includes optimizing the business environment and providing policy support [9] Group 5 - Consumption is a fundamental driver of economic growth, with demand directly influencing production and investment, particularly in the service sector where consumption and production occur simultaneously [10] - Current policies focus on promoting consumption while improving investment efficiency to enhance the quality of supply, with high-tech investments showing significant growth [10] - Local governments play a crucial role in stimulating consumption, and there are suggestions to incorporate consumption metrics into their performance evaluations [11] Group 6 - Optimizing the value-added tax distribution mechanism could enhance local governments' motivation to promote consumption, thereby directly stimulating local economic growth [12] - Establishing a compensation mechanism for consumption-based tax distribution could encourage local governments to implement more proactive consumption policies [12]