价值与价格的倒挂
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蜂巢能源杨红新谈电池行业“内卷”:战略短视导致恶性循环
经济观察报· 2025-06-06 08:03
Core Viewpoint - The battery industry is currently facing a paradox of growth and loss, with a booming market demand juxtaposed against a brutal price war that compresses profitability [2][8] Industry Diagnosis - The fundamental issue in the battery industry is the "inversion of value and price," where irrational capacity expansion driven by capital influx leads to price wars when market growth slows [8] - Companies are shifting focus from long-term value creation to short-term survival, resulting in strategic shortsightedness [8] - The competition in technology, such as charging rates, often prioritizes marketing over solving real user problems, leading to a disconnect between technological advancements and practical applications [9][10] Path Forward - Companies should prioritize innovations that create real value for users rather than flashy technological features [5][6] - The industry must navigate between standardization for cost advantages and differentiation to avoid price wars, which presents a strategic dilemma [2][15] Safety and Performance - Safety is the top priority in battery technology, and achieving it requires innovative engineering designs rather than solely relying on material safety [12][14] - The concept of "structural safety" is proposed, which involves physical isolation of battery components to prevent thermal runaway [13][14] Competitive Advantage - A successful strategy involves both unique technology ("spear") and efficient platform capabilities ("shield") to sustain market presence [15] - Companies should develop platform products that can be adapted for various customer needs, balancing standardization and differentiation [15] Market Opportunities - Future growth in the battery industry will come from the "re-segmentation of application scenarios," including off-road electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and the electrification of commercial vehicles [17][18] - The competition in the market will not be solely between lithium iron phosphate and ternary batteries, but rather a division of roles based on their respective strengths [21] Globalization Challenges - The main challenge for Chinese battery companies in global markets is transitioning from "product output" to "system output" and "value output," requiring a comprehensive understanding of local markets and operational capabilities [22][23][25] - Establishing a complete system that includes R&D, sales, and service in overseas markets is essential for success [25][26]