2025 年 08 月 26 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 148 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 蔚来全新 ES8、吉利银河 M9 开启预售，中大型智能 SUV 市场迎来重磅新品--行业周报 PCB 刀具持续高端化，加速扩充产能--鼎泰高科/通用设备(301377/216401) 公司点评 经营性利润稳健增长，未来三年分红比例拟提升至 60%以上--国电电力/电力(600795/214101) 公司点评 2025 年 Q2 利润同比回升，研发投入不断加强--安图生物/医疗器械(603658/213705) 公司点评 美债的历史演进与当下困局--宏观深度研究 电视剧业务迎新政利好，主投电影《刺杀小说家 2》定档国庆--华策影视/影视院线(300133/217206) 公司点 评 业绩韧性充分，产品结构持续升级--金徽酒/白酒Ⅱ(603919/213405) 公司点评 2025Q2 归母净利润同比高增，受益高端 PCB 扩产趋势--大族数控/专用设备(301200/216402 ...

在沙漠中构建起"光伏长城"，草原的"风光无限"点亮万家灯火……地处祖国北疆的内蒙古自治区，是我 国重要的能源基地。近年来，内蒙古加快改造提升传统产业，培育壮大新兴产业，产业转型发展动能澎 湃。 走进位于呼和浩特市的伊利现代智慧健康谷，全自动、智慧化生产加工场景让人眼前一亮。伊利集团副 总裁韩飞介绍，目前，液态奶基地日处理鲜奶6500吨，奶粉基地年产6万吨，奶酪基地年产20万吨，产 能和品质同步领跑。今年，将力争15万吨原制奶酪三期、6.3万吨奶粉三期项目投产，"从一棵草到一杯 奶，再到一块奶酪"的产业布局初具规模，现代化奶业发展前景广阔。 在呼和浩特市东部的敕勒川草原，绿草如茵，风景秀美。而在10多年前，这里却面临土地沙化、水土流 失的困境。蒙草集团副总经理陈睿珏介绍，该集团专注生态草、饲草、草坪草的育种、加工和推广应 用，收存植物种质资源2300种、6.5万份，标本17万余份，土壤165万份，拥有自主知识产权及使用权品 种105个，同时联合百余家科研院所、高校、企业筹建国家草业技术创新中心。"草业的科技创新为产业 转型发展不断赋能，我们已累计修复草原、矿山、沙地、盐碱地等各生态类型近3300万亩。"陈睿珏 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 林典驰 深圳报道 与此同时，亿纬锂能还宣布了中期分红，公司2025年半年度向全体股东每10股派发现金股利2.45元，合 计派发现金股利5亿元。 利润折损原因 亿纬锂能利润折损，很大程度上是因为股权激励费用和单项坏账计提的影响。 亿纬锂能董事会秘书江敏称，"公司上半年股权激励税前的费用大概5.7亿元，对利润影响大概有4.9 亿 元。下半年预计略低一些，大概 4 亿元费用。" 据媒体报道，上述影响利润的因素中，股权激励费用系受申报港股上市合规性要求，公司计提了半年度 股权激励费用，此费用往年于四季度方才计提。此外，单项坏账由一家汽车公司破产事件引起，目前该 单项已全部计提完毕。江敏称，"公司上半年计提了 2 个亿元左右的减值，其中单项计提的金额主要是 针对合众汽车，约 1.5 亿元应收账款全额计提了。"此前，亿纬锂能与哪吒汽车渊源颇深，两家公司长 期存在业务关联。2023年哪吒汽车前五大供应商中，四家为电池企业，亿纬锂能位列其中。 若剔除上述影响，亿纬锂能归母净利润则略增3.78%，扣除非经常损益后，净利润为17.7亿元，同比增 长18.06%，均实现增长。 近日，亿纬锂能（300014.S ...

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The supply contraction concern persists, and the downside space for lithium carbonate prices is limited. In the short - term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the progress of mines in Jiangxi and the continuity of the "anti - involution" sentiment [1][4][78]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, lithium carbonate prices opened high and closed low, with a weekly decline of 7.39%. Trading volume reached 4.32 million lots (-310,000), and open interest reached 362,300 lots (-38,800). The basis premium was 4,940 yuan/ton [6][7]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Lithium Ore - In July, China's lithium spodumene production was 6,500 tons of LCE, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; lithium mica production was 16,100 tons of LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2%. Lithium concentrate imports rebounded to 576,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.7% and a year - on - year increase of 4.8% [12][16]. 3.2.2 Lithium Battery Recycling - In August, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 23,484 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4% and a year - on - year increase of 28.9% [19]. 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate - Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,138 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2%. In July, lithium carbonate imports dropped to 13,845 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.7%. In July, Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China were 13,633 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.5% [25][27]. 3.2.4 Lithium Hydroxide - In August, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 36%, and the production was 23,820 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.3%. In July, lithium hydroxide exports were 1,248 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 80.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 86.3% [33]. 3.3 Downstream Demand 3.3.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, lithium iron phosphate production was 75,886 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.0%. In July, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 59%, and the production was 252,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10% and a year - on - year increase of 70% [36]. 3.3.2 Ternary Materials - Last week, ternary material production was 16,565 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. In July, imports increased and exports decreased [39]. 3.3.3 Ternary Precursors - In August, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 41%, and the production was 76,160 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1% and a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In July, exports increased [42]. 3.3.4 Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In August, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, and the production was 11,978 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 26%. The operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 61%, and the production was 8,880 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8% and a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [43]. 3.3.5 Electrolyte - In August, electrolyte production was 169,680 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 38.0%. In July, exports of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [50]. 3.4 Terminal Demand 3.4.1 Power Batteries - In July, power battery production was 133.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 45.8%. Power battery installations were 55.9 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 34.3% [53]. 3.4.2 New Energy Vehicles - In July, new energy vehicle production was 1.243 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 2.0% and a year - on - year increase of 26.3%. Sales were 1.262 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 27.4% [56]. 3.4.3 Energy Storage - In August, energy storage battery production was 45.15 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 42.9%. In June, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 4.57 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 11.3% and a year - on - year increase of 15.1%; the winning bid capacity scale was 12.11 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 27.3% and a year - on - year increase of 45.0% [61]. 3.4.4 Consumer Electronics - In July, China's smartphone production was 94.32 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. China's micro - computer production was 25.52 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 19.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.8% [64]. 3.5 Cost - Lithium ore prices declined. The price of 6% lithium spodumene concentrate dropped by $53/ton, and the price of lithium mica dropped by 190 yuan/ton [68]. 3.6 Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 713 tons. Structurally, smelter inventory decreased by 2,847 tons, downstream inventory increased by 3,224 tons, and other inventory decreased by 1,090 tons. Last week, lithium iron phosphate inventory decreased by 1,441 tons, and ternary material inventory increased by 321 tons [74][75]. 3.7 Market Outlook - Strategy: After an over - decline, short - term long positions can be taken, and options can be appropriately bought for protection; buy straddle options. The operating range is 70,000 - 100,000. In the short - term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely [78].

动力板块，亿纬锂能表示，其 动力电池产品在今年二季度对国际车企的交付逐渐起量，毛利率有了明显提升，上半年动力电池板块毛利率为 17.60%，同比上年的11.45%有了明显的改善。预计三季度依然保持稳定交付状态。同时对部分产线进行改造，改造完成的产线在今年7月 开始陆续投产交付。其预计， 动力电池板块盈利能力在今年下半年会呈现稳定向上的趋势。 储能板块， 明年荆门60GWh超级工厂（二期）的交付， 预计会带来30%以上的增长。 据悉，亿纬荆门 60GWh超级储能工厂 总投资108亿 元， 量产产品为全新一代储能电池MB56，可应用于电力储能、户外储能、船舶储能等多场景。 其中项目一期（60A）已于2024年底投产， 设计产能17GWh，项目二期（60B）设计产能约43GWh，今年8月 主体结构封顶，进入装饰装修阶段。 海外储能，现阶段公司海外储能订单正常推进，原有的项目没有受到关税影响。 目前美国市场依然有新增的客户需求。 据市场数据统计，亿 纬储能客户涵盖 美国前五储能企业，根据协议约定时间，预计 大批量交付从2026年开始。 倒计时3天 圆柱电池， 大圆柱新产品在今年三季度开始量产交付，今年交付量预计不大。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth in China's new energy vehicle (NEV) market and the corresponding increase in power battery installation capacity, indicating a pivotal year for GWh-level shipments in 2025 [2][3]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicle Sales - In the first seven months of 2025, China's NEV sales reached 8.22 million units, a year-on-year increase of 38.5%, with a penetration rate of 45.0%, up by 8.6 percentage points [2]. Power Battery Installation - The power battery installation capacity in China for the same period reached 343.52 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40.2% [2]. Battery Enterprises and Clients - A total of 48 power battery companies provided installation for vehicles, a decrease of 3 companies compared to the previous year, primarily serving passenger vehicles [6]. - The top 10 battery enterprises by installation volume include CATL, BYD, and others, with a total installation of 153.46 GWh for the leading companies [7][8]. Market Concentration - The market concentration for the top 10 battery companies (CR10) was 95.3%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the market share gains of emerging companies [8]. Battery Material Types - In terms of battery materials, the installation of ternary batteries was 66.63 GWh, accounting for 19.4%, down by 7.2 percentage points year-on-year, while lithium iron phosphate batteries reached 276.56 GWh, making up 80.5%, an increase of 7.2% [8]. Battery Shapes - The installation of square batteries was 334.29 GWh, representing 97.3% of the total, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. Cylindrical batteries accounted for 2.1% and soft-pack batteries for 0.6% [10]. - BMW announced the upcoming use of large cylindrical batteries in its new vehicles, which is expected to boost the market share of cylindrical batteries [10].

周观点0825：光伏价格传导有望 落地，AIDC&具身智能利好不断 长江证券研究所电力设备与新能源研究小组 2025-08-25 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 分析师及联系人 分析师 邬博华 分析师 曹海花 分析师 司鸿历 分析师 叶之楠 SAC执业证书编号：S0490514040001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490522030001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490520080002 SAC执业证书编号：S0490520090003 SFC执业证书编号：BQK482 SFC执业证书编号：BVD284 分析师 袁澎 分析师 王耀 分析师 任佳惠 分析师 周圣钧 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524010001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524120006 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524070005 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524120003 %% %% 图：本周电新板块行情回顾 CJ电新指数 光伏 储能 锂电 风电 电力设备 其他电源 电机 -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢周报（8.18-8.22） 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 观点和策略 2 基本面 3 技术分析 一、观点和策略 沪镍观点：本周镍价继续偏弱运行，周初成交清淡，随着镍价进一步回落，成交有所好转。 产业链上，矿价继续维稳，镍铁价格稳中有升，成本线坚挺。不锈钢库存有所回升，接下 来要期待金九银十能否提振消费，去库存。新能源汽车产销数据较好，但三元电池装车量 同比下降，总体需求提振受限。中长线过剩格局不变。 操作策略： 沪镍主力：20均线上下震荡运行。 不锈钢主力：20均线上下宽幅震荡。 二、基本面分析 1、产业链周度价格变化 2、镍矿市场状况分析 3、电解镍市场状况分析 4、镍铁市场状况分析 5、不锈钢市场状况分析 6、新能源汽车产销情况 4 产业链梳理总结 1、产业链 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 镍价短期震荡难破，供需宽松格局延续 （2025.08.25） 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 行情回顾 沪镍价走势 数据来源：博易大师 | | | | 全球镍元素供给及预期(万镍吨) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | | 原生镍总供应 | | 256 | 269 | 306 | 331 | 338 | 369 | | 全球纯银产量 | | 85 | 78 | 81 | 82 | 90 | 99 | | 全球镍铁产量 | | 140 | 169 | 190 | 206 | 205 | 221 | | | NP ...

按照动力电池的材料类型划分，今年7月，我国三元锂电池出口量为8.4GWh，环比下降7%，同比增长32.9%，占比为56.6%；磷酸铁锂电池出口量为 6.2GWh，环比下降7.6%，同比增长76.1%，占比为42.3%。今年1~7月，我国三元锂电池累计出口量为56.4GWh，同比增长22.3%，占比为58.4%；磷酸铁 锂电池累计出口量为39.4GWh，同比增长42%，占比为40.8%。 企业层面，今年7月，我国动力电池出口同比增长48.4%，宁德时代、比亚迪、中创新航、亿纬锂能、瑞浦兰钧等企业的产品出口超过行业平均增速；其 中，瑞浦兰钧增速最高，出口同比增长144.5%。今年1~7月，我国动力电池出口累计同比增长29.4%，比亚迪、蜂巢能源、瑞浦兰钧等企业的产品出口超 过行业平均增速；其中，蜂巢能源和瑞浦兰钧实现翻倍增长，出口同比增长分别达159.8%和111.9%。 动力电池"出海"乘风破浪正当时。 根据中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟（以下简称"电池联盟"）的统计，今年7月，我国出口动力及其他类型电池合计23.2GWh，同比增长35.4%，占当月销 量的18.3%；其中，动力电池出口占比63.7%。 此外，今 ...