Core Viewpoint - Haixi New Drug officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 20, opening at HKD 102 per share, a rise of 18.06% from the issue price of HKD 86.4. The company's performance heavily relies on the national volume-based procurement (VBP) plan, with over 90% of revenue from this channel from 2022 to 2024, raising concerns about sustainability and profitability due to price pressures [2][6][8]. Revenue and Profitability - Revenue from Haixi New Drug is projected to be approximately RMB 212.5 million, RMB 316.6 million, and RMB 466.7 million for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, with profits of about RMB 69.8 million, RMB 117.5 million, and RMB 136.1 million during the same period [4][6]. - The company faces significant price declines due to the VBP model, with the average price of its product Haihuaitong® dropping from RMB 3.56 to RMB 2.19, a decrease of 38.48%, and Anbili®'s price falling from RMB 1.16 to RMB 0.46 [6]. Dependency on Procurement - Haixi New Drug's revenue is highly dependent on a few products, with over 90% of revenue from procurement channels in 2022, 2023, and 2024. The two main products, Anbili® and Haihuaitong®, contributed 81.3%, 79.9%, and 72.2% of revenue respectively during these years [5][6]. - The procurement qualifications for Haihuaitong® and Anbili® will expire in 2025 and 2026 respectively, raising concerns about potential revenue disruptions if renewals are unsuccessful [6]. Innovation Pipeline - The company is attempting to pivot towards innovation with four drugs in the research pipeline targeting oncology, ophthalmology, and respiratory diseases. One notable drug, C019199, is in I/II clinical trials and aims to start a Phase III trial in late 2025 [7]. - However, the competition in the oncology space is intense, with several similar drugs already in development, posing risks to the success of Haixi's pipeline [7]. R&D Investment - R&D expenditures are expected to increase from RMB 34.82 million in 2022 to RMB 67.53 million in 2024, but this is still considered insufficient compared to the high costs associated with developing innovative drugs [7]. - The company needs to enhance its R&D efficiency and speed to compete effectively in the market [8].