Core Viewpoint - Since April 2025, China's exports to the US have decreased significantly, while exports to non-US regions have increased overall, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [2][3]. Export Trends - From April to August 2025, China's exports to the US fell by 25.4% year-on-year, while exports to the EU, ASEAN, Japan, Latin America, and Africa increased by 9.5%, 18.3%, 6.0%, 4.0%, and 32.2% respectively [2]. - In the same period, US imports from China dropped by 35.6%, contrasting with a 5.2% increase in the first three months of 2025 [2]. - The export growth rates from China to ASEAN and the US have shown a correlation increase, but the relationship remains low, suggesting that the changes cannot be solely attributed to transshipment effects [4]. Tariff Impact - The imposition of a 10% tariff by the US on ASEAN countries from April 5 to August 6, 2025, has influenced export patterns, leading to a temporary increase in imports from ASEAN to the US [3]. - Post-August, the export growth from ASEAN to the US has generally declined, while China's exports to ASEAN have increased, indicating a complex interaction rather than a straightforward transshipment effect [3]. Global Value Chain Insights - The analysis of the global value chain (GVC) indicates that the indirect exposure of China to the US has increased, but this does not fully offset the decline in direct exports to the US [4]. - In 2018, the share of exports to the US from other regions that originated in China was 3.8%, which increased to 4.2% by 2024, showing limited marginal growth compared to the overall decline in exports [4]. Corporate Expansion and Investment - The trend of Chinese companies expanding overseas is expected to support exports to non-US regions and boost exports from these regions to the US [5]. - In 2024, foreign investments contributed to an export increase of $211 billion, representing a 13% year-on-year growth and accounting for 5.9% of China's total goods exports [5].