中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 策略 Strategy "十五五"投资蓝图初探 >>点击图片查看全文<< 今年7月底召开的中央政治局会议指出，"'十五五'时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期"。从资本市场角 度，作为国民经济与产业发展的指南针，五年规划通过政策预期传导与资源优化配置对资本市场整体与结构表现产生深刻影响。时间节 奏来看，2025年10月即将召开的二十届四中全会有望审议"十五五"规划建议，结合历史经验，明年3月两会左右有望发布规划纲要。伴 随着"十五五"规划逐渐进入关键政策窗口期，市场关注度明显提升。本篇报告初步探索"十五五"期间可能的建设方向和投资机遇，结合 历史上五年规划期间资本市场表现特征，尝试构建五年规划对资本市场尤其是A股影响的分析框架，供投资者参考。 2025.10.12 | 李求索 伊真真等 02 策略 Strategy 关税再升级的影响与应对 >>点击图片查看全文<< 10月10日，中美贸易摩擦升级。市场短期难免会有波动，但投资者也会密切观望11月前的谈判进展。操作层面：1）如果投资者已经如 我们之前建议调降部分仓位，可以观 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since April 2025, China's exports to the US have decreased significantly, while exports to non-US regions have increased overall, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [2][3]. Export Trends - From April to August 2025, China's exports to the US fell by 25.4% year-on-year, while exports to the EU, ASEAN, Japan, Latin America, and Africa increased by 9.5%, 18.3%, 6.0%, 4.0%, and 32.2% respectively [2]. - In the same period, US imports from China dropped by 35.6%, contrasting with a 5.2% increase in the first three months of 2025 [2]. - The export growth rates from China to ASEAN and the US have shown a correlation increase, but the relationship remains low, suggesting that the changes cannot be solely attributed to transshipment effects [4]. Tariff Impact - The imposition of a 10% tariff by the US on ASEAN countries from April 5 to August 6, 2025, has influenced export patterns, leading to a temporary increase in imports from ASEAN to the US [3]. - Post-August, the export growth from ASEAN to the US has generally declined, while China's exports to ASEAN have increased, indicating a complex interaction rather than a straightforward transshipment effect [3]. Global Value Chain Insights - The analysis of the global value chain (GVC) indicates that the indirect exposure of China to the US has increased, but this does not fully offset the decline in direct exports to the US [4]. - In 2018, the share of exports to the US from other regions that originated in China was 3.8%, which increased to 4.2% by 2024, showing limited marginal growth compared to the overall decline in exports [4]. Corporate Expansion and Investment - The trend of Chinese companies expanding overseas is expected to support exports to non-US regions and boost exports from these regions to the US [5]. - In 2024, foreign investments contributed to an export increase of $211 billion, representing a 13% year-on-year growth and accounting for 5.9% of China's total goods exports [5].