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银行板块,领跑市场
第一财经· 2025-06-26 03:46
Core Viewpoint - The A-share banking sector has shown strong performance since the beginning of the year, with the Shenwan Banking Index rising by 15.77% as of June 25, significantly outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which only increased by 0.64% [2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - On June 25, the Shenwan Banking Index rose by 1.05%, with 28 out of 42 constituent stocks increasing in value, including notable performances from Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Chengdu Bank [1][2] - Major state-owned banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China reached historical highs in stock prices, contributing to a daily trading volume exceeding 36 billion yuan [1][2] Group 2: Investment Drivers - The banking sector's strong performance is driven by three main factors: the scarcity of high dividend yields, the stable income characteristics of bank stocks, and the shift in public fund assessment rules favoring long-term investments [2][4][11] - The average dividend yield for the banking sector is 3.86%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of 1.65%, making bank stocks attractive for investors seeking stable returns in a low-interest-rate environment [2][4] Group 3: Institutional Investment - Insurance funds are the primary buyers of bank stocks, with their holdings in A-share bank stocks reaching 265.78 billion yuan, accounting for 45.05% of their total industry allocation [6] - Public funds have also increased their allocation to bank stocks, with the proportion of active funds holding bank stocks rising from 3.72% at the end of 2024 to 4.0% [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The banking sector is expected to face a more complex market environment in the second half of 2025, with structural differentiation likely to become the main theme [9][11] - High-dividend, stable-performing state-owned banks and quality regional banks are anticipated to remain favored by defensive capital seeking stable returns [10][11] - The ability of the banking sector to maintain significant excess returns will depend on the strength of economic recovery and the stabilization of net interest margins [11]