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四川成渝(601107):25Q2业绩同比+24%超预期,H1业绩同比+20%,存在预期差的低估值红利资产
Huachuang Securities· 2025-08-29 05:12
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Sichuan Chengyu (601107) [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 2025 performance exceeded expectations with a year-on-year growth of 24%, and H1 2025 performance showed a 20% year-on-year increase, indicating a potential undervaluation of this asset [1] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024A is projected at 10,362 million, with a decline of 11.1% year-on-year. For 2025E, revenue is expected to be 9,984 million, with a further decline of 3.7% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024A is estimated at 1,459 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.9%. For 2025E, net profit is projected at 1,630 million, with an 11.7% increase [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is forecasted at 0.53 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11 times [2] - The company’s total market capitalization is 171.86 billion, with a circulating market value of 121.55 billion [3] Business Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 4.126 billion, a decrease of 23.14% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in construction service revenue. However, net profit attributable to shareholders was 837 million, up 19.93% year-on-year [7] - The toll revenue from the Chengyu Expressway in H1 2025 was 422 million, a slight increase of 0.52% year-on-year, while the Chengren Expressway saw a decline of 7.21% [10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with net profits adjusted to 16.3 billion, 17.3 billion, and 18.7 billion respectively. This corresponds to EPS of 0.53, 0.57, and 0.61 yuan for the same years [7] - The target price is set at 8.00 yuan for A-shares and 6.32 HKD for H-shares, indicating a potential upside of 42% and 32% from current prices respectively [2][7]