风险提示：收费标准降低风险；不可抗力；竞争性线位导致车流转移。 机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：闫海/严天鹏/范晨轩 事件：宁沪高速发布2025 年中报，公司实现营业收入94.06 亿元，同比下降5.6%；剔除建造收入影响 后，营收同比下降0.99%，主业经营基本稳定。归属于上市公司股东的净利润为24.24 亿元，同比下降 11.8%，主要受联营企业投资收益减少及江苏银行分红周期调整影响。业绩略低于预期。 25 年H1 通行费收入稳中有增，江苏银行分红周期调整影响投资收益。25 年H1，公司共实现通行费收 入约人民币46 亿元，同比增长约1.65%，主要路段受改扩建影响，增速呈现分化状态。江苏银行公司分 红周期调整，于2024 年11 月实施2024 年度中期分红，25H1江苏银行分红为扣除中期分红后的年度分 红，约人民币1.68 亿元，24 年同期为全口径年度分红，约人民币3.68 亿元，同比下降54.38%。 核心路产改扩建持续推进，"低空+交通"赋能安全智慧管养新生态。根据公司路产改扩建计划，宁扬长 江大桥北接线项目预计将于25 年底前全线开通。此外，锡宜高速南段改扩建也将于2026 年6 月通车， 届时， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiangsu Ninghu Expressway [2][7][17] Core Views - The company's performance slightly underperformed expectations due to changes in the dividend cycle of Jiangsu Bank, with a reported revenue of RMB 9.406 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6% [7] - The toll revenue for H1 2025 showed a stable increase, amounting to approximately RMB 4.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 1.65% [7] - The ongoing expansion projects are expected to significantly improve regional traffic flow, with the completion of key infrastructure projects by the end of 2025 and mid-2026 [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 15.192 billion - 2024: RMB 23.198 billion - 2025E: RMB 23.935 billion - 2026E: RMB 24.730 billion - 2027E: RMB 25.436 billion - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 15% for 2023, 53% for 2024, and 3.2% for 2025E [6][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: RMB 4.413 billion - 2024: RMB 4.947 billion - 2025E: RMB 5.447 billion - 2026E: RMB 5.790 billion - 2027E: RMB 6.049 billion - The projected PE ratios are 10 for 2023, 9 for 2024, and 8 for 2025E [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The company reported a robust growth in toll revenue, achieving a total revenue of 3.741 billion RMB in H1 2025, which represents a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for H1 2025 was 960 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [6] - The company’s toll revenue for H1 2025 reached 2.45 billion RMB (after tax), marking a significant increase of 13.59% year-on-year, driven by improved traffic flow from newly opened sections of highways [6] - The ongoing expansion and upgrade of core road assets are expected to sustain future traffic growth, with the successful completion of the Xuanguang Expressway project enhancing capacity and economic benefits [6] - The company has a solid dividend policy, committing to distribute at least 60% of the net profit attributable to the parent company in cash dividends over the next three years [6] - The profit forecast for 2025E-2026E has been slightly adjusted upwards, with expected net profits of 1.955 billion RMB and 2.002 billion RMB respectively, corresponding to PE multiples of 13 and 12 [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 7,147 million RMB for 2025E, 7,228 million RMB for 2026E, and 7,267 million RMB for 2027E, with growth rates of 0.8%, 1.1%, and 0.5% respectively [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,955 million RMB for 2025E, 2,002 million RMB for 2026E, and 2,119 million RMB for 2027E, with growth rates of 17.1%, 2.4%, and 5.8% respectively [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.14 RMB for 2025E, 1.17 RMB for 2026E, and 1.24 RMB for 2027E [2] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 38.6% in 2025E to 40.2% in 2027E [2] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 12.4% for 2025E, declining to 10.7% by 2027E [2] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 14.59 RMB, with a market capitalization of 17,006 million RMB [3] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 2.1 and a dividend yield of 4.14% [3] - The company's net asset per share is 6.99 RMB, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 55.66% [3]

证 券 研 究 报 告 四川成渝（601107）2025 年中报点评 强推（维持） 25Q2 业绩同比+24%超预期，H1 业绩同比 +20%，存在预期差的低估值红利资产 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 10,362 | 9,984 | 10,229 | 10,596 | | 同比增速(%) | -11.1% | -3.7% | 2.5% | 3.6% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,459 | 1,630 | 1,728 | 1,867 | | 同比增速(%) | 22.9% | 11.7% | 6.0% | 8.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.48 | 0.53 | 0.57 | 0.61 | | 市盈率(倍) | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | | 市净率(倍) | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 8 月 28 日收盘价 公 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Anhui Expressway (皖通高速) has shown a year-on-year growth in its H1 2025 performance, driven by increased toll revenue and construction service income, and maintains a "buy" rating from Guojin Securities [1][5]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.74 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 960 million yuan, up 4.0% year-on-year [2]. - In Q2 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 920 million yuan, a significant decline of 51.7% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 410 million yuan, an increase of 2.4% [2]. Revenue Analysis - The growth in H1 2025 revenue was primarily due to toll revenue and construction service income [3]. - Toll revenue for H1 was 2.48 billion yuan, up 13.4% year-on-year, with the Xuan-Guang Expressway contributing 220 million yuan, a remarkable increase of 98.7% due to increased traffic following its reopening [3]. - The core route, the An-Ning Expressway, generated toll revenue of 740 million yuan, reflecting an 8.7% increase, attributed to higher traffic during the Spring Festival [3]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 37.2%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to depreciation from the completion of the Xuan-Guang Expressway [4]. - The company’s expense ratio was 4.79%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, with financial expenses rising to 2.53% due to interest costs from loans related to the expressway project [4]. - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 25.7%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Strategic Moves - The company completed the acquisition of 100% equity in Fuzhou Expressway and Sihu Expressway for 4.77 billion yuan, contributing 85.05 million yuan and 33.22 million yuan to net profit, respectively [4]. - The company participated in a private placement of Shen Expressway, investing 500 million yuan, and won the concession rights for the Bo-Dan Expressway, establishing a subsidiary with an investment of 35 million yuan [4]. - A differentiated toll policy was implemented in Anhui Province starting April, reducing discounts for certain vehicles, which is expected to positively impact profitability [4]. Profit Forecast - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 1.89 billion yuan, 1.99 billion yuan, and 2.10 billion yuan, respectively [5].

Core Viewpoint - Anhui Expressway (SH 600012) announced the convening of its 15th meeting of the 10th Board of Directors on August 28, 2025, to discuss the adjustment of the 2025 budget [1] Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, Anhui Expressway's revenue composition is as follows: toll revenue accounts for 54.79%, construction period revenue/cost accounts for 44.18%, and other business activities account for 1.03% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Anhui Wantuo Expressway (00995.HK) reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the mid-2025 period, indicating strong operational performance driven by toll and construction service income [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved total operating revenue of RMB 374,105 million, representing an 11.72% increase compared to RMB 334,851 million in the same period of 2024 [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 96,048 million, up 4.00% from RMB 92,353 million in 2024 [1] - Basic earnings per share rose to RMB 0.5771, reflecting a 3.64% increase from RMB 0.5568 in the previous year [1] Revenue Drivers - The increase in operating revenue was primarily due to growth in toll revenue and construction service income during the reporting period [1]

上 市 公 司 交通运输 2025 年 08 月 28 日 宁沪高速 (600377) ——受江苏银行分红周期变化影响，业绩略低于预期 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 13.53 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 16.39/12.50 | | 市净率 | 1.7 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 3.62 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 51,444 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,843.60/12,571.37 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 7.97 | | 资产负债率% | 45.79 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 5,038/3,802 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/1,222 | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-28 09-28 10-28 11-28 12-28 01-28 02-28 03-31 ...

Core Viewpoint - Qilu Highway (01576) has issued a profit warning, expecting a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the upcoming six months ending June 30, 2025, primarily due to a decrease in construction business income [1] Revenue Summary - The company anticipates revenue of approximately RMB 1.067 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of about 61.98% [1] - Toll revenue is expected to be around RMB 847 million (including tax), showing a year-on-year increase of approximately 70.03%, attributed to the completion of the Jizhou-Heze expressway expansion and the restoration of two-way traffic [1] Profit Summary - The projected net profit is approximately RMB 198 million, which indicates a year-on-year decline of about 21.62% [1] - The decrease in net profit is mainly due to increased depreciation, amortization, and financial costs following the completion of the Jizhou-Heze expressway expansion [1]

Core Viewpoint - Qilu Highway (01576) issued a profit warning, expecting a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the upcoming six months ending June 30, 2025 [1] Revenue Summary - The company anticipates revenue of approximately RMB 1.067 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of about 61.98% [1] - Toll revenue is expected to be around RMB 847 million (including tax), showing a year-on-year increase of approximately 70.03% due to the completion of the Jizhou-He Highway expansion and restoration of two-way traffic [1] Profit Summary - The expected net profit is approximately RMB 198 million, which indicates a year-on-year decline of about 21.62% [1] - The decrease in net profit is attributed to increased depreciation, amortization, and financial costs following the completion of the Jizhou-He Highway expansion [1]