Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the real estate industry [2]. Core Insights - The analysis focuses on the price trends of real estate in resource-based cities, particularly in lower-tier cities, highlighting the importance of these trends for understanding future price movements in similar urban areas [6][9]. - The report categorizes resource-based cities into four types: growth, mature, decline, and regeneration, based on their industrial positioning and development stages [9]. - From December 2015 to December 2024, the report indicates that growth-type cities experienced the highest average price increase of approximately 50%, while decline-type cities saw the smallest increase at around 15% [11]. - During the downturn period from December 2022 to December 2024, growth and decline-type cities maintained relatively stable prices with declines between -5% and -10%, while mature and regeneration-type cities experienced greater volatility with declines exceeding -10% [11]. - The report suggests that many cities have cleared previous price bubbles, with some lower-tier cities seeing prices revert to levels not seen since 2007 or earlier, indicating a potential new market phase [11][12]. Summary by Sections Resource-Based Cities Analysis - The report identifies 126 resource-based cities, accounting for about 48% of third-tier and lower cities, emphasizing their significance in price trend analysis [9]. - The classification of resource-based cities is based on the "National Resource-Based City Sustainable Development Plan (2013-2020)" [9]. Price Trends and Cycles - The report details the average price changes for second-hand homes in resource-based cities from December 2015 to December 2024, noting that growth-type cities had a price increase of 58% during the upcycle and a decrease of -5% during the downcycle [12]. - The average price changes for mature cities were 41% during the upcycle and -11% during the downcycle, while decline-type cities saw a 25% increase and an -8% decrease [12]. Market Outlook - The report concludes that the current real estate market in China is in a deep adjustment phase, with many cities having cleared previous price bubbles, suggesting a potential for a new market phase to begin [11][12].