Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a significant price increase driven by supply-side geopolitical policy disturbances rather than a substantial improvement in demand [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 15, 2026, the Shanghai nickel futures market saw the main contract open at 143,000 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 151,750 CNY/ton and closing at 146,750 CNY/ton, marking an increase of 5,750 CNY/ton or 4.08% [1]. - The average price of 1 nickel in the Changjiang market rose to 151,800 CNY/ton, up by 5,000 CNY from the previous day, while the average price of domestic spot nickel reached 152,100 CNY/ton, an increase of 5,100 CNY [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent price surge is attributed to supply-side risks, particularly from Indonesia, which is reducing output quotas and considering new taxes on by-products, shifting its focus from expansion to value control [2]. - Despite the price increase, the demand side remains weak, particularly in the stainless steel sector, where profit compression limits the acceptance of high raw material prices [2]. - The battery sector, while trending towards high nickel usage, still relies on lithium iron phosphate routes due to cost advantages, delaying the commercial rollout of high nickel ternary batteries [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The short-term outlook suggests that supply-side policy expectations will continue to be a key variable, with potential price stabilization at high levels if official mining price benchmarks are raised as anticipated [3]. - The long-term trend will depend on the balance between strong policy expectations and weak real demand, with a true trend requiring a substantial rebalancing of supply and demand [3].