Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated, with a weekly decline of 0.95%. The adjustment of tariff measures on US - imported goods and China's October official manufacturing PMI data were released. Domestically, the economy is resilient with rising prosperity in new energy and semiconductors, while overseas uncertainties remain high with a high - probability of future interest rate cuts. [6] - In terms of supply, RKAB approval in 2025 provides sufficient raw materials for smelters, but new policy risks still exist. In September, China's nickel imports were large, nickel - iron production was low in China and high in Indonesia. The operating rate of nickel sulfate enterprises rebounded, and production increased slightly in September. In October 2025, domestic refined nickel production declined from a high level. [6] - Regarding demand, stainless - steel production improved in September and is expected to have a mild rebound in October. Domestic stainless - steel inventory is still high, and the inventory increased after a decrease. In the new - energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries is declining, but the output of ternary materials increased significantly from August to September. [6] - In terms of inventory, LME nickel inventory, SHFE inventory, and refined nickel social inventory all increased slightly last week. [6] - In the short term, the RKAB approval in 2025 provides raw material security, but new policy risks remain. Trade disputes affect market sentiment. Fundamentally, imported nickel remains at a high level, inventory is increasing, and Indonesian policies may affect supply but have not had an actual impact yet. Downstream stainless - steel production and inventory have marginally improved, and nickel prices will generally fluctuate within a range. [6] Group 3: Summaries by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Viewpoints and Strategies - Viewpoint: After considering supply, demand, and inventory factors, nickel prices will fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. - Strategy: Conduct short - term trading on the SHFE nickel 2512 contract and sell out - of - the - money put options. Pay attention to changes in the mining end, stainless - steel production, trade disputes, and Indonesian exports in the future [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Structure - The nickel industrial chain includes nickel ore (laterite nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, nickel - iron, high - grade nickel matte, nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, and their downstream applications in stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [8]. 3. Futures and Spot Markets - The report mentions the LME nickel premium and discount and the SHFE electrolytic nickel main - contract basis, but no specific analysis is provided [10]. 4. Supply Side Nickel Ore - In 2024, China's nickel ore imports decreased by 21.7% year - on - year to 36.5763 million tons due to significant nickel - iron production cuts. In August - September 2025, imports increased seasonally, reaching 6.3467 million and 6.1144 million tons respectively [18]. Nickel Pig Iron - In 2024, Indonesia's nickel - iron production was 1.5138 million tons, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, production was 156,500 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase. In 2024, domestic nickel - iron production was 296,400 tons, a 20.9% year - on - year decrease. In September 2025, production was 21,700 tons, with a slight month - on - month decrease and still at a low level [21]. - In August - September 2025, China's nickel - iron imports were 874,000 and 1.085 million tons respectively, showing a significant month - on - month increase. In September 2025, nickel - pig - iron inventory was 19,900 tons, remaining stable [25]. Refined Nickel - With the continuous release of electrowinning nickel capacity, pure - nickel supply expanded in 2024. In October 2025, domestic refined nickel production was 33,240 tons, a decline from a high level. In July - August 2025, the apparent consumption was 29,883.05 and 37,551.45 tons respectively [28]. - In September 2025, China's nickel imports were 2.786 million tons, at a high level, and exports were 170,000 tons, with a slight month - on - month decline [31]. 5. Intermediates Wet - Process Intermediates - In September 2025, Indonesia's MHP production was 41,600 tons, a slight month - on - month decline but still at a historical high [37]. High - Grade Nickel Matte - Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte production growth was relatively pressured this year. In 2024, production was 267,000 tons, an 8.54% year - on - year increase. In August - September 2025, production was 20,300 and 21,300 tons respectively. From the project planning perspective, there will be more planned intermediate - product capacities from 2025 - 2027 [43]. Nickel Sulfate - In September 2025, China's nickel sulfate production was 39,045.4 tons, a month - on - month increase. In August - September 2025, nickel sulfate imports were 30,292 and 29,533 tons respectively [47]. 6. Demand Side Stainless - Steel Demand - In 2024, the release of stainless - steel production capacity was relatively slow. The output of 43 stainless - steel sample enterprises was 38.2582 million tons, a 7.43% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, stainless - steel production was 3.4267 million tons, showing an increase after a decline from a high level. The latest total social inventory of stainless steel was 987,549 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase [52]. Cathode - Material Demand - In terms of power - battery structure, the market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20%. Driven by the trade - in policy, the total terminal demand is expected to continue growing in 2025. In September 2025, the production of ternary cathode materials was 75,900 tons, continuing to rebound from a low level [59]. 7. Inventory Side - As of October 31, 2025, the social inventory of refined nickel was 48,746 tons, a slight increase from the previous week [64]. - As of November 5, 2025, LME nickel inventory was 252,750 tons, a slight month - on - month increase. As of November 6, 2025, SHFE inventory was 32,689 tons, a slight month - on - month increase [68].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report cautiously bullish on nickel prices, with a "cautiously bullish" rating [3][40] Core Views of the Report - Macro层面: The Fed has started the interest rate cut path, and the monetary easing pattern is clear. The US dollar is expected to weaken, which is positive for US dollar-denominated assets. However, Trump's policies bring uncertainties, and the downward path of the US dollar index is not clear [3][40] - Fundamentals: Overseas nickel ore supply remains loose, and domestic port inventories have increased significantly. The cost of nickel iron is still under pressure, and the production of 300-series stainless steel is flat with slow de-stocking. The demand for nickel sulfate replenishment is good, and the power terminal is marginally warming up. The overall fundamentals remain weak [3] - Outlook: The macro outlook is positive, but policy risks still exist. Nickel prices are cautiously bullish, and the center of nickel prices will slowly rise this year. Attention should be paid to the RKAB nickel ore approval quota scale in Indonesia [3][40] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In September, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated strongly. At the beginning of the month, the non-farm payrolls data was revised down, and the market bet on the Fed's interest rate cut, pushing up nickel prices. After the interest rate cut, the bullish sentiment was released, and the price moderately declined. At the end of the month, the US economic data was strong, and the stagflation risk decreased, pushing up nickel prices again. However, the Fed officials' differences on the future interest rate cut path hindered the price increase [8] - The spot premium of refined nickel was strong. In September, the premium of Jinchuan nickel rose from 2,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2,350 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the premium of imported nickel rose from 450 yuan/ton to 550 yuan/ton. The Fed's interest rate cut and pre-holiday replenishment demand supported the premium [10] 2. Macro Analysis Overseas - The US economic data shows resilience, and the downward trend of the US dollar index faces challenges. The weakening labor market has pushed the Fed to cut interest rates, and the US dollar is expected to weaken in theory. However, Trump's policies make it difficult to assess the relative risk intensity between economies, and the decline of the US dollar index may be more tortuous [13] - The risk of stagflation has decreased. The US consumer spending and disposable income have increased, indicating that the consumer willingness and resilience are both strong. However, there are potential risks in the consumer resilience of the resident sector, and the income structure has certain risks [14] Domestic - Domestic demand vitality needs to be boosted, and export performance is outstanding. Investment and consumption are weak, while export data is eye-catching. However, the structural difference in social financing has intensified, and market confidence needs to be corrected. The export data is good, but the export resilience still faces potential risks [16][17][18] 3. Fundamental Analysis 1. Overseas Disturbances are Limited, and the Loose Expectation of Nickel Ore Continues - Overseas nickel ore supply tends to be loose, but high-grade nickel ore is relatively scarce. The suspension of some mining companies in Indonesia has limited impact. In August, China's nickel ore imports increased significantly, and domestic port inventories have reached a three-year high, but the price of high-grade ore has not loosened [21][22] 2. Smelting Profits have Significantly Recovered, and Domestic Supply Remains High - In September, China's refined nickel production increased year-on-year, and the smelting profit has recovered, boosting the production enthusiasm of the upstream. In August, China's refined nickel imports increased significantly, and the import loss has been continuously corrected. Overall, domestic supply remains high [24][25] 3. The Cost Pressure of Nickel Iron Remains, and the Production Scheduling of Stainless Steel is Expected to Contract - In September, the price of high-nickel pig iron was strong. The production of nickel iron in China decreased slightly, while that in Indonesia increased slightly. The profit of the smelting end first increased and then decreased. The production of 300-series stainless steel was flat, and the market expects a contraction in October. The inventory of 300-series stainless steel has decreased seasonally, but the inventory has accumulated again recently [27][28] 4. The Profit of High-Ice Nickel Process is Considerable, and the Demand for Nickel Sulfate is Good - In September, the price of nickel sulfate was strong. The production of nickel sulfate increased year-on-year and month-on-month, and the profit of the high-ice nickel process has been rising. The market resources of nickel sulfate are relatively scarce, and the spot purchase is hot. In August, China's nickel sulfate imports increased slightly, while exports decreased slightly [32] 5. There are Structural Differences in the Power Terminal, and the Heat of the Commercial Vehicle Market Continues - In August, the production and sales growth rates of domestic new energy vehicles slowed down, but the commercial vehicle market maintained a high growth rate. Overseas, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe and the United States have increased year-on-year. The new energy vehicle market shows significant structural differentiation [34][36] 6. Both Domestic and Overseas Inventories are Increasing, and there may be an Inflection Point in Inventory Accumulation this Year - As of October 10, domestic refined nickel social inventories have increased, and the inventories of the two major exchanges have also increased significantly. In the future, the supply side may remain high, while the demand side has no obvious boost, and the spot faces strong inventory accumulation pressure. The Fed's interest rate cut may affect the inventory accumulation trend of the exchanges [38] 4. Market Outlook - Supply: The profit of the smelting end is not good, and the domestic production increase motivation is insufficient. Overseas Russian nickel resources are abundant, and there is no immediate concern about supply [40] - Demand: The real estate transaction growth rate has turned negative, and the subsidy funds for the power end are controlled, so the demand increase is limited [40] - Cost: The supply of nickel ore tends to be loose, high-grade ore is scarce, and the ore price is stable [40] - Macro: The interest rate cut expectation is clear, but policy risks still exist. The macro outlook is positive, but nickel prices are cautiously bullish [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term macro trade disputes have improved, and the positive macro impact has been mostly reflected in the market. With the continuous improvement of supply and demand, nickel prices are expected to be boosted. However, there are still uncertainties in the timely increase of Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB approval quota, and policy disturbance risks remain. The Indonesian government's increase in the privilege use fee for nickel resources has raised the supply - side cost. The recommended strategy is to conduct short - term long trading on the SHFE nickel 2507 contract and sell out - of - the - money put options. Later, attention should be paid to changes in the mining end, stainless steel production, and trade disputes [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - long View and Strategy - **Macro**: The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks reached a joint statement on reducing or canceling relevant tariffs. The US adjusted its additional tariffs on Chinese goods, with 91% of the tariffs revoked and 34% of the reciprocal tariff measures implemented, of which 24% of the tariffs were suspended for 90 days. In April, China's social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, accelerating compared with the previous month [8]. - **Supply**: In 2025, the RKAB approval quota for nickel ore provides sufficient raw material guarantee for smelters, but there are uncertainties in its timely increase, and policy risks remain. In April, China's nickel - iron production decreased slightly, while Indonesia's remained high. The operating rate of nickel sulfate enterprises decreased, and the output in April decreased month - on - month. In April 2025, the total output of domestic refined nickel was 36,450 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease [8]. - **Demand**: In April, the demand for stainless steel recovered, but the domestic stainless steel inventory was still high, exceeding 1 million tons among 78 sample enterprises. In the new energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries is on a downward trend, and the output of ternary materials rebounded from a low level in April [8]. - **Inventory**: Last week, LME nickel inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, as did the SHFE inventory. The social inventory of refined nickel was 42,791 tons, a decrease from the previous week [8]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Structure - The nickel industry chain includes nickel ore (red - soil nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, nickel - iron, high - grade nickel matte, nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, and end - use industries such as stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [10]. 3.3. Spot and Futures Market - Not provided with specific analysis content other than the mention of LME nickel premium/discount and SHFE electrolytic nickel main contract basis charts 3.4. Supply Side - **Nickel Ore**: In 2024, China's imports of Philippine nickel ore decreased significantly. In December 2024, imports were 36.5763 million tons, a 21.7% year - on - year decrease. In 2025, imports in January, February, and March were 91,190 tons, 114,600 tons, and 153,500 tons respectively [21]. - **Nickel - Iron**: In 2024, Indonesia's nickel - iron output was 1.5138 million nickel tons, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. In April 2025, the output was 159,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase in supply. In 2024, domestic nickel - iron output was 296,400 nickel tons, a 20.9% year - on - year decrease. In April 2025, the output was 21,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease in supply. From January to March 2025, China's nickel - iron imports were 929,000 tons, 909,000 tons, and 1.013 million tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 4.4%, 23.4%, and 60% respectively. In April 2025, the nickel - iron inventory was 19,300 tons [24][27]. - **Refined Nickel**: In 2025, with the continuous release of electrowinning nickel production capacity, the supply of pure nickel maintained an expanding trend. In April 2025, the total domestic refined nickel output was 36,450 tons, and the apparent consumption in March 2025 was 29,837.1 tons. From January to March 2025, China's nickel imports were 234,000 tons, 185,000 tons, and 219,000 tons respectively, showing a high - level decline month - on - month. From January to March 2025, China's exports were 17,000 tons, 23,000 tons, and 16,000 tons respectively [32][35]. 3.5. Intermediates - **Wet - process Intermediates**: According to MYSTEEL research statistics, the output of Indonesia's MHP (nickel - cobalt hydroxide) in April 2025 was 31,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease [40]. - **High - grade Nickel Matte**: The output growth of Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte was relatively pressured this year. In 2024, the output was 267,000 tons, an 8.54% year - on - year increase. In March and April 2025, the output was 16,700 tons and 12,000 tons respectively. From the project planning perspective, there are more planned production capacities for intermediates from 2025 to 2027 [44]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: In 2024, the output of nickel sulfate was 386,100 nickel tons, a 0.44% year - on - year increase. In April 2025, the output was 31,393 tons, a month - on - month decrease. From January to March 2025, the imports of nickel sulfate were 14,021.9 tons, 16,421.4 tons, and 18,380 tons respectively [47]. 3.6. Demand Side - **Stainless Steel Demand**: In 2024, the release of stainless steel production capacity was relatively slow. The output of 43 sample stainless steel enterprises was 38.2582 million tons, a 7.43% year - on - year increase. In April 2025, the stainless steel output was 3.5025 million tons, returning to a high level. The latest total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,058,355 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease [51]. - **Positive Electrode Material Demand**: In 2024, the output of ternary precursors was 773,100 tons, a 1.5% year - on - year decrease. From the perspective of the power battery structure, the market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20%. It is expected that driven by the trade - in policy in 2025, the total terminal demand will still have inertia. In April 2025, the output of ternary positive electrode materials was 61,900 tons, continuing to rise from a low level [55]. 3.7. Inventory Side - **Social and Bonded - area Inventory**: As of May 9, 2025, the social inventory of refined nickel was 42,791 tons, a slight decrease from the previous week [60]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of May 14, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 198,516 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease. As of May 15, 2025, the SHFE inventory was 23,344 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro**: In the first four months of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 14.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. Exports were 8.39 trillion yuan, up 7.5%, and imports were 5.75 trillion yuan, down 4.2%. The central bank announced ten policy measures, including a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in policy interest rates, and a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans, and the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan "service consumption and elderly care re - loan" [8]. - **Supply**: In 2025, the RKAB approval quota for nickel ore provides sufficient raw material for smelters, but there is uncertainty about whether the quota in Indonesia can increase as scheduled. In April 2025, China's ferronickel production decreased slightly, while Indonesia's ferronickel production continued to decline from a high level. The operating rate of nickel sulfate enterprises increased slightly, and the output in March increased slightly month - on - month. In April 2025, the total domestic refined nickel production was 36,450 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease [8]. - **Demand**: In March, the demand for stainless steel recovered, but the domestic stainless steel inventory was still high, exceeding 1 million tons among 78 sample enterprises. In the new energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries declined, and the output of ternary materials rebounded from a low level in March. In April, demand was expected to be affected by trade disputes [8]. - **Inventory**: Last week, LME nickel inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, as did the SHFE inventory. The social inventory of refined nickel was 42,806 tons, a decrease from the previous week [8]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, the RKAB approval quota in 2025 provides sufficient raw materials for smelters. However, there is uncertainty about the increase of the RKAB quota in Indonesia, and policy risks remain. The Indonesian government has raised the privilege use fee for nickel resources, increasing supply - side costs. Recently, macro - trade frictions have greatly affected demand expectations, and Shanghai nickel will fluctuate [8]. - **Strategy**: Due to the repeated macro - trade dispute policies in the short term, short - term trading is recommended for the SHFE nickel 2507 contract. Later, attention should be paid to changes in the mine end, stainless steel production, and trade disputes [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1产业链结构 (Industrial Chain Structure) - The nickel industry chain includes nickel ore (laterite nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, ferronickel, high - grade nickel matte, nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, and their downstream products such as stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [10] 3.2期现市场 (Spot and Futures Markets) - The report presents the LME nickel premium and discount (spot/3 months, in US dollars per ton) and the SHFE electrolytic nickel main contract basis (in yuan per ton) [12] 3.3供应端 (Supply Side) - **Nickel Ore**: In 2024, China's imports of Philippine nickel ore declined significantly. In December 2024, China imported 36.5763 million tons of nickel ore, a 21.7% year - on - year decrease. In January, February, and March 2025, imports were 911,900 tons, 1.146 million tons, and 1.535 million tons respectively [20]. - **Nickel Pig Iron**: In 2024, Indonesia's ferronickel production was 1.5138 million nickel tons, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. In March 2025, the output was 152,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase in supply. In 2024, domestic ferronickel production was 296,400 nickel tons, a 20.9% year - on - year decrease. In April 2025, the output was 21,600 tons, with a month - on - month decrease in supply. From January to March 2025, China's ferronickel imports were 929,000 tons, 909,000 tons, and 1.013 million tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 4.4%, 23.4%, and 60% respectively. In March 2025, the nickel pig iron inventory was 19,800 tons [23][26]. - **Refined Nickel**: With the continuous release of electrowinning nickel production capacity, the supply of pure nickel continued to expand in 2024. In April 2025, the total domestic refined nickel production was 36,450 tons, and the apparent consumption in March 2025 was 29,837.1 tons [31]. - **Nickel Imports and Exports**: From January to March 2025, China's nickel imports were 234,000 tons, 185,000 tons, and 219,000 tons respectively, showing a decline from a high level. From January to February 2025, China's exports were 17,000 tons, 23,000 tons, and 16,000 tons respectively [34]. 3.4中间品 (Intermediate Products) - **Wet - Process Intermediates**: According to MYSTEEL research, in March 2025, the output of Indonesian MHP (nickel - cobalt hydroxide) was 37,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase [39]. - **High - Grade Nickel Matte**: The growth rate of Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte production was relatively under pressure this year. In 2024, the output was 267,000 tons, an 8.54% year - on - year increase. In January, February, and March 2025, the output was 26,300 tons, 21,200 tons, and 16,700 tons respectively. From the project planning perspective, there are many planned production capacities for intermediate products from 2025 to 2027, and the long - term supply concern for intermediate products is relatively limited [43]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: In 2024, the output of nickel sulfate was 386,100 nickel tons, a 0.44% year - on - year increase. In March 2025, the output was 34,571.6 tons, with a month - on - month increase. From January to February 2025, the imports of nickel sulfate were 14,021.9 tons, 16,421.4 tons, and 18,380 tons respectively [46]. 3.5需求端 (Demand Side) - **Stainless Steel Demand**: In 2024, the release of stainless steel production capacity was relatively slow. The output of 43 stainless steel sample enterprises was 38.2582 million tons, a 7.43% year - on - year increase. In April 2025, the stainless steel output was 3.5025 million tons, recovering to a high level. The latest total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,061,548 tons, a month - on - month increase [50]. - **Cathode Material Demand**: In 2024, the output of ternary precursors was 773,100 tons, a 1.5% year - on - year decrease. From the perspective of the power battery structure, the market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20% in terms of both output and installed capacity. In 2025, driven by the trade - in policy, the growth of total terminal demand still has inertia. In March 2025, the output of ternary cathode materials was 60,800 tons, rising from a low level [54]. 3.6库存端 (Inventory Side) - **Social and Bonded - Area Inventory**: As of May 2, 2025, the social inventory of refined nickel was 42,806 tons, a slight decrease from the previous week [61]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of May 7, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 200,082 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease. As of May 8, 2025, the SHFE inventory was 23,564 tons, also a slight month - on - month decrease [65].