Report Industry Investment Rating - The report cautiously bullish on nickel prices, with a "cautiously bullish" rating [3][40] Core Views of the Report - Macro层面: The Fed has started the interest rate cut path, and the monetary easing pattern is clear. The US dollar is expected to weaken, which is positive for US dollar-denominated assets. However, Trump's policies bring uncertainties, and the downward path of the US dollar index is not clear [3][40] - Fundamentals: Overseas nickel ore supply remains loose, and domestic port inventories have increased significantly. The cost of nickel iron is still under pressure, and the production of 300-series stainless steel is flat with slow de-stocking. The demand for nickel sulfate replenishment is good, and the power terminal is marginally warming up. The overall fundamentals remain weak [3] - Outlook: The macro outlook is positive, but policy risks still exist. Nickel prices are cautiously bullish, and the center of nickel prices will slowly rise this year. Attention should be paid to the RKAB nickel ore approval quota scale in Indonesia [3][40] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In September, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated strongly. At the beginning of the month, the non-farm payrolls data was revised down, and the market bet on the Fed's interest rate cut, pushing up nickel prices. After the interest rate cut, the bullish sentiment was released, and the price moderately declined. At the end of the month, the US economic data was strong, and the stagflation risk decreased, pushing up nickel prices again. However, the Fed officials' differences on the future interest rate cut path hindered the price increase [8] - The spot premium of refined nickel was strong. In September, the premium of Jinchuan nickel rose from 2,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2,350 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the premium of imported nickel rose from 450 yuan/ton to 550 yuan/ton. The Fed's interest rate cut and pre-holiday replenishment demand supported the premium [10] 2. Macro Analysis Overseas - The US economic data shows resilience, and the downward trend of the US dollar index faces challenges. The weakening labor market has pushed the Fed to cut interest rates, and the US dollar is expected to weaken in theory. However, Trump's policies make it difficult to assess the relative risk intensity between economies, and the decline of the US dollar index may be more tortuous [13] - The risk of stagflation has decreased. The US consumer spending and disposable income have increased, indicating that the consumer willingness and resilience are both strong. However, there are potential risks in the consumer resilience of the resident sector, and the income structure has certain risks [14] Domestic - Domestic demand vitality needs to be boosted, and export performance is outstanding. Investment and consumption are weak, while export data is eye-catching. However, the structural difference in social financing has intensified, and market confidence needs to be corrected. The export data is good, but the export resilience still faces potential risks [16][17][18] 3. Fundamental Analysis 1. Overseas Disturbances are Limited, and the Loose Expectation of Nickel Ore Continues - Overseas nickel ore supply tends to be loose, but high-grade nickel ore is relatively scarce. The suspension of some mining companies in Indonesia has limited impact. In August, China's nickel ore imports increased significantly, and domestic port inventories have reached a three-year high, but the price of high-grade ore has not loosened [21][22] 2. Smelting Profits have Significantly Recovered, and Domestic Supply Remains High - In September, China's refined nickel production increased year-on-year, and the smelting profit has recovered, boosting the production enthusiasm of the upstream. In August, China's refined nickel imports increased significantly, and the import loss has been continuously corrected. Overall, domestic supply remains high [24][25] 3. The Cost Pressure of Nickel Iron Remains, and the Production Scheduling of Stainless Steel is Expected to Contract - In September, the price of high-nickel pig iron was strong. The production of nickel iron in China decreased slightly, while that in Indonesia increased slightly. The profit of the smelting end first increased and then decreased. The production of 300-series stainless steel was flat, and the market expects a contraction in October. The inventory of 300-series stainless steel has decreased seasonally, but the inventory has accumulated again recently [27][28] 4. The Profit of High-Ice Nickel Process is Considerable, and the Demand for Nickel Sulfate is Good - In September, the price of nickel sulfate was strong. The production of nickel sulfate increased year-on-year and month-on-month, and the profit of the high-ice nickel process has been rising. The market resources of nickel sulfate are relatively scarce, and the spot purchase is hot. In August, China's nickel sulfate imports increased slightly, while exports decreased slightly [32] 5. There are Structural Differences in the Power Terminal, and the Heat of the Commercial Vehicle Market Continues - In August, the production and sales growth rates of domestic new energy vehicles slowed down, but the commercial vehicle market maintained a high growth rate. Overseas, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe and the United States have increased year-on-year. The new energy vehicle market shows significant structural differentiation [34][36] 6. Both Domestic and Overseas Inventories are Increasing, and there may be an Inflection Point in Inventory Accumulation this Year - As of October 10, domestic refined nickel social inventories have increased, and the inventories of the two major exchanges have also increased significantly. In the future, the supply side may remain high, while the demand side has no obvious boost, and the spot faces strong inventory accumulation pressure. The Fed's interest rate cut may affect the inventory accumulation trend of the exchanges [38] 4. Market Outlook - Supply: The profit of the smelting end is not good, and the domestic production increase motivation is insufficient. Overseas Russian nickel resources are abundant, and there is no immediate concern about supply [40] - Demand: The real estate transaction growth rate has turned negative, and the subsidy funds for the power end are controlled, so the demand increase is limited [40] - Cost: The supply of nickel ore tends to be loose, high-grade ore is scarce, and the ore price is stable [40] - Macro: The interest rate cut expectation is clear, but policy risks still exist. The macro outlook is positive, but nickel prices are cautiously bullish [40]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货镍周报 贸易争端降温 期价震荡反弹 20250519 作者：姜世东 交易咨询号：Z0020059 从业资格号：F03126164 0769-22110802 审核：孙伟涛 交易咨询号：Z0014688 1 周度观点及策略 2 产业链结构 3 期现市场 4 供应端 6 需求端 7 库存端 5 中间品 周度观点及策略 周度观点 u 宏观：中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明：降低或取消相关关税。国务院关税税则委员会发布公告，自5月14日12时01分起，调整对原产于美国 的进口商品加征关税措施。美国调整对华加征关税，于美东时间5月14日凌晨0时01分，撤销对中国商品加征的共计91%的关税，调整实施34% 的对等关税措施，其中24%的关税暂停加征90天。央行发布数据显示，4月末，我国社会融资规模存量同比增长8.7%，M2余额同比增长8%，较 上月增速加快。 u 供应：镍矿方面，2025年RKAB审批额度为冶炼厂提供了充足的原料保障，但印尼镍矿RKAB审批额度能否如期放量仍存不确定性，政策扰动风 险仍在；4月份中国镍铁小幅减少；印尼镍铁保持高位；硫酸镍方面，硫酸镍企业开工 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro**: In the first four months of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 14.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. Exports were 8.39 trillion yuan, up 7.5%, and imports were 5.75 trillion yuan, down 4.2%. The central bank announced ten policy measures, including a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in policy interest rates, and a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans, and the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan "service consumption and elderly care re - loan" [8]. - **Supply**: In 2025, the RKAB approval quota for nickel ore provides sufficient raw material for smelters, but there is uncertainty about whether the quota in Indonesia can increase as scheduled. In April 2025, China's ferronickel production decreased slightly, while Indonesia's ferronickel production continued to decline from a high level. The operating rate of nickel sulfate enterprises increased slightly, and the output in March increased slightly month - on - month. In April 2025, the total domestic refined nickel production was 36,450 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease [8]. - **Demand**: In March, the demand for stainless steel recovered, but the domestic stainless steel inventory was still high, exceeding 1 million tons among 78 sample enterprises. In the new energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries declined, and the output of ternary materials rebounded from a low level in March. In April, demand was expected to be affected by trade disputes [8]. - **Inventory**: Last week, LME nickel inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, as did the SHFE inventory. The social inventory of refined nickel was 42,806 tons, a decrease from the previous week [8]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, the RKAB approval quota in 2025 provides sufficient raw materials for smelters. However, there is uncertainty about the increase of the RKAB quota in Indonesia, and policy risks remain. The Indonesian government has raised the privilege use fee for nickel resources, increasing supply - side costs. Recently, macro - trade frictions have greatly affected demand expectations, and Shanghai nickel will fluctuate [8]. - **Strategy**: Due to the repeated macro - trade dispute policies in the short term, short - term trading is recommended for the SHFE nickel 2507 contract. Later, attention should be paid to changes in the mine end, stainless steel production, and trade disputes [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1产业链结构 (Industrial Chain Structure) - The nickel industry chain includes nickel ore (laterite nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, ferronickel, high - grade nickel matte, nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, and their downstream products such as stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [10] 3.2期现市场 (Spot and Futures Markets) - The report presents the LME nickel premium and discount (spot/3 months, in US dollars per ton) and the SHFE electrolytic nickel main contract basis (in yuan per ton) [12] 3.3供应端 (Supply Side) - **Nickel Ore**: In 2024, China's imports of Philippine nickel ore declined significantly. In December 2024, China imported 36.5763 million tons of nickel ore, a 21.7% year - on - year decrease. In January, February, and March 2025, imports were 911,900 tons, 1.146 million tons, and 1.535 million tons respectively [20]. - **Nickel Pig Iron**: In 2024, Indonesia's ferronickel production was 1.5138 million nickel tons, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. In March 2025, the output was 152,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase in supply. In 2024, domestic ferronickel production was 296,400 nickel tons, a 20.9% year - on - year decrease. In April 2025, the output was 21,600 tons, with a month - on - month decrease in supply. From January to March 2025, China's ferronickel imports were 929,000 tons, 909,000 tons, and 1.013 million tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 4.4%, 23.4%, and 60% respectively. In March 2025, the nickel pig iron inventory was 19,800 tons [23][26]. - **Refined Nickel**: With the continuous release of electrowinning nickel production capacity, the supply of pure nickel continued to expand in 2024. In April 2025, the total domestic refined nickel production was 36,450 tons, and the apparent consumption in March 2025 was 29,837.1 tons [31]. - **Nickel Imports and Exports**: From January to March 2025, China's nickel imports were 234,000 tons, 185,000 tons, and 219,000 tons respectively, showing a decline from a high level. From January to February 2025, China's exports were 17,000 tons, 23,000 tons, and 16,000 tons respectively [34]. 3.4中间品 (Intermediate Products) - **Wet - Process Intermediates**: According to MYSTEEL research, in March 2025, the output of Indonesian MHP (nickel - cobalt hydroxide) was 37,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase [39]. - **High - Grade Nickel Matte**: The growth rate of Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte production was relatively under pressure this year. In 2024, the output was 267,000 tons, an 8.54% year - on - year increase. In January, February, and March 2025, the output was 26,300 tons, 21,200 tons, and 16,700 tons respectively. From the project planning perspective, there are many planned production capacities for intermediate products from 2025 to 2027, and the long - term supply concern for intermediate products is relatively limited [43]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: In 2024, the output of nickel sulfate was 386,100 nickel tons, a 0.44% year - on - year increase. In March 2025, the output was 34,571.6 tons, with a month - on - month increase. From January to February 2025, the imports of nickel sulfate were 14,021.9 tons, 16,421.4 tons, and 18,380 tons respectively [46]. 3.5需求端 (Demand Side) - **Stainless Steel Demand**: In 2024, the release of stainless steel production capacity was relatively slow. The output of 43 stainless steel sample enterprises was 38.2582 million tons, a 7.43% year - on - year increase. In April 2025, the stainless steel output was 3.5025 million tons, recovering to a high level. The latest total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,061,548 tons, a month - on - month increase [50]. - **Cathode Material Demand**: In 2024, the output of ternary precursors was 773,100 tons, a 1.5% year - on - year decrease. From the perspective of the power battery structure, the market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20% in terms of both output and installed capacity. In 2025, driven by the trade - in policy, the growth of total terminal demand still has inertia. In March 2025, the output of ternary cathode materials was 60,800 tons, rising from a low level [54]. 3.6库存端 (Inventory Side) - **Social and Bonded - Area Inventory**: As of May 2, 2025, the social inventory of refined nickel was 42,806 tons, a slight decrease from the previous week [61]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of May 7, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 200,082 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease. As of May 8, 2025, the SHFE inventory was 23,564 tons, also a slight month - on - month decrease [65].