| 业期現日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【2011 1292号 2025 4 TIE 27 E | | | | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 11月25日 | 11月24日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | a500 | a500 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | 540 | 560 | -20 | -3.57% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 9750 | 9750 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | -10 | 10 | -20 | -200.00% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8900 | 8900 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | 740 | 760 | -20 | -2.63% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 11月25日 | 11月24日 | 消费 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 251 ...

| 业期現日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【2011 1292号 2025 4 TIE 27 E | | | | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 11月25日 | 11月24日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | a500 | a500 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | 540 | 560 | -20 | -3.57% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 9750 | 9750 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | -10 | 10 | -20 | -200.00% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8900 | 8900 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | 740 | 760 | -20 | -2.63% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 11月25日 | 11月24日 | 消费 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 251 ...

供应宽松，锌镍走势为何分化 20251126 摘要 不锈钢价格走弱，新能源汽车三元电池需求受限，金炼镍库存增加，电 机业新增产能难以消化，多重因素导致近期镍价下行，市场对供需疲软 的担忧加剧。 印尼年初宣布采矿限额低于去年，但实际供应未收缩，反而增加菲律宾 镍矿进口。截至 10 月，印尼进口菲律宾矿同比增长 36.4%，加剧了市 场对镍供应过剩的担忧。 原生镍供应充足且库存高企，下游需求难以消化，预计 2026 年去库时 间节点未到。镍价中枢可能下移至 10 万至 11 万元区间，建议持有偏空 思路，关注逢高沽空机会。 全球锌矿产量增加，主要来自海外矿山。中国锌矿进口量同比增长 41.3%，国内精矿加工费回升带动冶炼厂开工率上升，精炼锌供应显著 增长，而海外冶炼厂减产，全球精炼锌供应增长有限。 国内新精矿加工费回升及冶炼厂高开工率，叠加冬季季节性因素，将推 动国内精炼锌供应增加。海外冶炼厂减产态势或延续，全球供需格局趋 向宽松，中国市场将继续承受较大库存压力。 Q&A 近期镍价为何持续下跌，并创下近三年的最低点？ 镍价的持续下跌主要源于产业链各环节的明显过剩问题。在传统镍铁-不锈钢链 条上，镍铁高成本产能仍在 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251126 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：俄乌和谈进程提速，A 股迎来修复 海外方面，陆续补发的经济数据再度提振市场降息预期，美国 9 月零售环比仅增 0.2%， 显著弱于 8 月的 0.6%，在关税抬价和劳动力市场走软背景下，消费趋疲；9 月 PPI 环比回升 0.3%符合预期，能源涨 3.5%与食品涨 1.1%是主要贡献；ADP 周报显示过去四周美国私营部 门就业岗位周均减少 1.35 万，就业数据仍偏弱，12 月降息预期再度提高至 85%。美元指数 回落至 99.8，10Y 美债利率回落至 4%，美股低开高走。泽连斯基称乌方已准备推进美方支 持的停战框架，并愿与特朗普协商分歧，要求欧洲同步参与，油价下跌超 1%，金价、铜价 上涨。今日关注 9 月耐用品订单以及初申失业金人数。 国内方面，A 股放量修复，两市近 4300 只个股收涨、成交额缩量至 1.74 万亿，双创板 块领涨，教育、通讯设备、贵金属等板块表现相对较优，目前地缘风险阶段性缓和、基本面 数据偏冷、12 月政策预期尚未发 ...

有色商品日报 | 铝棒加工费多地持稳，包头南昌无锡下调 | 70-80 元/吨；铝杆 1A60 | 系加工费持稳，6/8 | | --- | --- | --- | | 系加工费持稳，低碳铝杆云南上调 71 元/吨。北方开启环保监察，目前针对矿端较多， | | | | 北方氧化铝厂有阶段检修，未有规模减产。新疆仓库库容趋于满仓，氧化铝社库小幅解 | | | | 压，下游原料备货出现积压，持续对价格施压。随着美降息预期下滑，宏观情绪转为谨 | | | | 慎。铝价重心回调叠加河南环保限产暂解，加工产线部分恢复运行，铝锭出库有所提升。 | | | | 新疆发运初显紧张态势叠加铝水回调有限，助力铝锭库存延续窄幅去库。短期支撑铝价， | | | | 上方仍有限制。 | | | | 隔夜 LME 镍涨 1.29%报 14920 美元/吨，沪镍涨 1.1%报 117410 元/吨。库存方面，LME | | | | 库存持平至 253482 吨，SHFE 仓单减少 843 吨至 33650 吨。升贴水来看，LME0-3 月升 | | | | 贴水维持负数；进口镍升贴水维持 500 元/吨。镍矿方面，镍矿基准价格小幅下跌，但 ...

-4849 .1012 -48倍 | 7 Elite | 日度策略参考 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 份格号:F025192 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 行业板块 | 品神 | | | | | | 当前宏观层面处于相对真空期,A股缺乏明确的上涨主线,市场成 | 交维持低位,预计短期市场分歧将在股指震荡调整中逐步消化, | 股指 | 農汤 | 待新的驱动主线带来股指进一步上行。 | 六川金融 | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 国债 | 至间。 | | | | | | | | 近期市场情绪反复,铜价或震荡运行。 | 農汤 | 近期产业面驱动有限,而宏观情绪反复,铝价高位震荡运行。 | 震荡 | F | | | | | | 国内氧化铝产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,近期价 | 氧化铝 | 格继续围绕成本线附近震荡运行,关注矿端价格变化。 | 美联储内部分歧加大, 近期宏观情绪预计反复。基本面短期国内 | | | | | | | ...

市场分析 2025-11-25日沪镍主力合约2601开于115880元/吨，收于116160元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.75%，当日成交量为 116438（-32096）手，持仓量为141215（-6339）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约继续反弹，小幅收涨，但成交量较前日有所减少，市场观望情绪仍存。宏观方面， 中美两国领导直接通话，并释放善意信号，让市场信心大增。此外，美联储多官员释放鸽派信号，12月降息预期 回升，美元指数走弱，对镍价形成一定支撑。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-26 中美关系利好，镍不锈钢价格反弹 镍品种 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，镍矿市场观望为主，价格维稳运行。菲律宾方面北部矿山出货尚不稳定，矿山最新 招标价略有走跌，但价格依旧居高。下游镍铁成交价跌至880元/镍(舱底含税)，市场信心缺失。铁厂利润受挫，对 原料镍矿采购多保持谨慎。部分铁厂已有减产止损的心理操作。印尼方面，11月(二期)内贸基准价走跌0.12-0.2美 元/湿吨，内贸升水方面，当前主流升水维持+26，升水区间多在+25-26。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格121270元/吨，较上一个交易日 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 2025 年 11 月 26 日星期三 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@gf.com.cn 陈尚宇（投资咨询资 ...

| 硅铁(SF603) | 1.10% | 62.50% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 5448 | 60 | 5508 | 2.73% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 5790 | 154 | 5636 | 54.10% | 硅锰(SM601) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 144 | 4.64% | 螺纹钢 (RB2601) | 3250 | 61.30% | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 3106 | 热卷 (HC2601) | -9 | 3300 | -027% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 3309 | 14.10% | | | | | | 54.20% | 863 | 794 | ୧୦ | 8.71% | 铁矿石 (12601) | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF)：淡水河谷:日照港 | -114% | -19 | 52.99% | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, copper prices first rose and then declined slightly. Downstream consumption remains weak, and the negotiation of long - term contracts between copper producers and downstream users is ongoing. The 85,000 - yuan level may be a psychological price for downstream point - pricing [1] - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Supply and demand are expected to be relatively loose in early 2026 and then gradually tighten [1][2] - Zinc prices oscillated this week. The domestic fundamentals are poor, but there may be a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities, and the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 contracts [5] - The short - term fundamentals of nickel are weak. With continuous inventory accumulation at home and abroad, and considering the policy motivation to support prices in Indonesia, it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [6][7] - The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak. With high inventory and the policy motivation to support prices in Indonesia, it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [10] - Lead prices declined this week. Supply is loose, and demand is expected to weaken. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate narrowly next week, and cautious operation is recommended [13][14] - Tin prices increased this week. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it is recommended to wait and see. In the long - term, it is advisable to hold at low prices near the cost line or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [17] - The supply and demand of industrial silicon in Q4 are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state, and prices are expected to oscillate. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [20] - The price of lithium carbonate has fluctuated greatly. In the long - term, if energy storage demand remains high and power demand is stable, the pattern may change in the next 1 - 2 years [22] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices first rose and then declined slightly. Downstream consumption was weak, and long - term contract negotiations were ongoing. LME copper had concentrated warehouse - receipts, and the spread between refined and scrap copper widened. The 85,000 - yuan level may be a psychological price for downstream point - pricing [1] Aluminum - Aluminum prices decreased with reduced positions. Aluminum ingot inventory remained flat, and downstream consumption was acceptable. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate. Supply and demand are expected to be relatively loose in early 2026 and then gradually tighten [1][2] Zinc - Zinc prices oscillated. Supply - side TC declined, and there was a new production capacity in November. In December, most smelters' maintenance was expected to reduce production by over 10,000 tons. Demand was weak both at home and abroad. The export window has opened. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities, and the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 contracts [5] Nickel - The price of nickel ore remained stable. The short - term fundamentals were weak, with continuous inventory accumulation at home and abroad. Considering the policy motivation to support prices in Indonesia, it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [6][7] Stainless Steel - The prices of stainless steel products declined slightly. Supply increased slightly in October, demand was mainly for rigid needs, costs remained stable, and inventory was high. With the policy motivation to support prices in Indonesia, it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [10] Lead - Lead prices declined. Supply was loose, and demand was expected to weaken. The contradiction between supply and demand was alleviated, and social inventory began to accumulate. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate narrowly next week, and cautious operation is recommended [13][14] Tin - Tin prices increased. The supply - side processing fee was low, and there were some disturbances in overseas production. Demand was mainly rigid. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. In the long - term, it is advisable to hold at low prices near the cost line or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [17] Industrial Silicon - The supply and demand of industrial silicon in Q4 are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state, and prices are expected to oscillate. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [20] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated greatly. The market sentiment declined, and there was news of mine resumption in Jiangxi. The supply - side had high price elasticity, and if energy storage demand remained high and power demand was stable, the pattern may change in the next 1 - 2 years [22]