Core Viewpoint - In July, the "anti-involution" policy led to a narrowing of the PPI month-on-month decline to -0.2%, driven by key industries controlling volume and raising prices, alongside new funding allocations, the fading of promotional disturbances, and rising gold prices [1] Group 1: PPI and CPI Analysis - The year-on-year decline of PPI remains at a two-year low of -3.6%, while CPI has shifted from an increase to stability [1] - Core CPI has rebounded for the third consecutive month, indicating improvements in industrial consumer prices [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The fading of tailing factors may lead to improvements in PPI year-on-year and CPI year-on-year in the fourth quarter, starting from August [1] - To effectively drive inflation back to historical averages, stronger policy measures and a focus on expanding domestic demand are crucial [1]

中金公司研报指出，7月在"反内卷"政策发力下，重点行业控量提价推动PPI环比跌幅收窄至-0.2%，加 之换新资金下达、网促扰动消退、金价上涨，CPI工业消费品价格改善，并推动核心CPI同比连续第三 个月回升。但本轮供给侧产能治理相较于2016年更加市场化、法治化，对物价的提振效果更柔和。PPI 同比跌幅仍在两年低位的-3.6%，CPI同比由涨转平。向前看，翘尾因素的拖累消退或带动8月后PPI同 比、四季度CPI同比改善，但若想持续有效推动通胀回归历史中枢，仍需政策加力，且扩内需更为关 键。 ...