● 本报记者 熊彦莎 国庆中秋假期，全国国内出游8.88亿人次，全国消费相关行业日均销售收入同比增长4.5%…… 国家税务总局等有关部门公布的最新数据显示，国庆中秋假期消费市场增势较好；数码产品、汽车消费 增长较快，旅游、文化艺术体育服务需求强劲，食品及保健品消费平稳增长。专家认为，在多元需求和 优质供给双重驱动下，国庆中秋假期的消费市场展现出强劲活力。随着更多扩内需相关政策的落地，消 费潜力有望持续释放，为经济高质量发展不断注入动能。 商品消费结构优化 "今年的国庆中秋假期，我回老家和家人团聚。我给爸妈买了新手机，中秋赏月时拍的照片效果真不 错。"在北京工作的田先生说。 国家税务总局最新发布的增值税发票数据显示，国庆中秋假期，数码产品、汽车、金银珠宝等商品消费 快速增长。手机等通讯器材销售收入同比增长18.8%，汽车销售收入同比增长12.6%，黄金价格上升带 动珠宝首饰销售收入同比增长41.1%。 "国庆中秋假期商品消费绿色智能导向鲜明，数码产品因以旧换新补贴销量攀升。升级类消费表现突 出，适老化改造产品、高端家电等受青睐。场景融合加速，线上直播间下单与线下即时配送结合，提升 购物体验。"苏商银行特约研究员 ...

新华社北京9月28日电 题：释放潜力，增强经济发展的基本动力——扩内需、促消费观察（上篇） 新华社记者翟伟、孟含琪、金津秀 消费作为内需的重要组成部分，是驱动经济增长的关键引擎。 习近平总书记强调，"内需是中国经济发展的基本动力，也是满足人民日益增长的美好生活需要的 必然要求""要增强消费能力，改善消费条件，创新消费场景，使消费潜力充分释放出来"。 技术驱动拓展消费场景，创新业态挖掘消费需求，推动消费升级促进产业升级……纵观全国，消费 市场呈现从"量的扩张"向"质的提升"深度转型。各地创新消费供给的新故事，不断彰显我国经济的韧性 与活力。 一条游船"划"出文旅新活力 "以为只是坐船游江，没想到戴上眼镜不仅能看到盛唐锦官城的巍峨城楼，还能看到优雅的仙鹤与 火红的凤凰在天空翱翔……太神奇了！"刚体验完成都"夜游锦江"MR（混合现实技术）数字游船项目， 游客陈龙赞不绝口。 "MR数字游船项目是科技赋能文旅的又一力作。"成都文旅集团"夜游锦江"项目营销负责人杨苛介 绍，游客戴上特制眼镜，就能"穿越"时空，"亲临"盛唐，与"市集"上的人物互动，沉浸式体验千年以前 的繁华市井。 对新项目的探索，缘于传统文旅项目的发展陷入 ...

Group 1: Banking Industry - The report tracks the progress of deposit migration from the perspective of financial system liquidity, indicating that the trend of deposit migration continues, reflected in the activation of deposits and increased activity in capital markets, although the pace has slightly slowed down due to three main factors: the front-loaded fiscal and credit monetary supply in the first half of the year, increased investor divergence after the stock market rise, and a slowdown in the return of foreign exchange funds amid export deceleration [5] - The estimated potential for deposit migration remains at 5-7 trillion yuan, suggesting that this trend may continue in the medium term despite the current slowdown [5] Group 2: Macroeconomy - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is a critical period for China's financial cycle and economic transformation, with the "15th Five-Year Plan" expected to enhance supply capacity while addressing debt and demand issues arising from real estate adjustments [7] - To maintain GDP growth within a certain range, a rebalancing of supply and demand is necessary, particularly in boosting demand through debt resolution, consumption promotion, and fiscal reforms [7] - Policies aimed at stimulating demand may also benefit supply in the long term, with a focus on technological innovation and the internationalization of the renminbi amid changes in the international monetary system [8] Group 3: Strategy - In August, while A-shares, particularly the STAR Market, were strong, Hong Kong stocks remained stagnant. However, in September, A-shares entered a phase of fluctuation while Hong Kong stocks gained momentum, supported by expectations of Federal Reserve easing and AI internet developments [10] - The report discusses the potential for market leadership among the three regions (China, Hong Kong, and the US) and identifies which industries may offer greater value [10] Group 4: Automotive and Components Industry - The trend towards liquid cooling solutions in data centers is driving increased demand for liquid cooling components, with domestic automotive parts companies leveraging their capabilities in thermal management to expand into this market [14] - The rise in AI chip power consumption is accelerating the application of liquid cooling solutions, enhancing the demand for core components like quick-connect fittings (UQD) [14] - The domestic supply chain possesses cost advantages and significant potential for domestic substitution in the liquid cooling market [14]

利好共振 8月财政数据反映出当前经济边际承压，尤其是土地相关收入偏弱，政策继续发力的概率上升，后续关 注政策性金融工具落地情况。此外，企业所得税增速大幅提高彰显"反内卷"成效，PPI降幅收窄带动企 业利润出现回暖迹象。 全球宏观流动性改善 由于美国就业市场风险上行，上周美联储如期降息25个基点。根据点阵图，年内或仍有两次降息。"预 防式"降息周期开启，全球宏观流动性改善，有助于风险资产估值抬升。美元年内预计保持偏弱态势， 我国经济韧性较强，人民币汇率仍有升值动能，对人民币资产较为有利。国内方面，在9月22日的高质 量完成"十四五"规划系列主题新闻发布会上，央行表示，中国的货币政策坚持以我为主，兼顾内外均 衡，当前中国的货币政策立场是支持性的。证监会表示，截至今年8月底，各类中长期资金合计持有A 股流通市值约21.4万亿元，较"十三五"末增长32%。在当前经济修复动能仍不够稳固的情况下，未来货 币政策预计延续适度宽松的基调。微观资金面方面，在政策的积极支持下，中长期资金将持续入市，为 市场的稳健运行提供助力。近期非银存款持续高增，印证居民存款"搬家"仍在进行中。融资余额保持高 位，市场情绪活跃。因此，在全球宏观 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the effective implementation of consumption-boosting policies in China, leading to stable growth in the consumer market and the emergence of new consumption drivers [1][2] - The Bank of Communications has launched a new online credit product called "Guobudai," specifically designed for merchants participating in national subsidy programs, with a maximum credit limit of 3 million yuan [1] - "Guobudai" addresses the urgent funding needs of distributors in the home appliance, digital, and home improvement sectors, enhancing their confidence and ability to seize market opportunities during peak sales seasons [1] Group 2 - The bank has developed a smart operational model for "Guobudai," utilizing a unified system to efficiently connect local data and meet regional needs, with plans to expand the product's availability nationwide [2]

Group 1 - The core focus of China's economic policy this year is to boost domestic demand and improve investment efficiency, with a series of measures being implemented to support economic growth [1][2] - In August, retail sales of household appliances, furniture, and cultural office supplies showed a continued double-digit growth year-on-year, indicating a strong consumer demand [1] - The service retail sector has also seen a 5.1% year-on-year growth in the first eight months, outpacing goods retail, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards higher quality life experiences [1][2] Group 2 - The expansion of domestic demand policies is positively impacting the production side, with significant year-on-year increases in the manufacturing of boilers, electric motors, and other equipment [2] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors reported a year-on-year increase of 9.3% and 8.1% respectively, indicating a structural upgrade in the manufacturing industry [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed signs of stabilization, moving from a 0.2% decline to flat, suggesting improvements in production prices due to better supply-demand dynamics [2] Group 3 - New policies aimed at promoting private investment and breaking traditional resource allocation models are being introduced, with pilot programs approved in ten regions [3] - The current macroeconomic policy is characterized by a gradual and supportive approach, with expectations for increased policy strength in response to economic data from the previous year [3]

Economic Growth and Indicators - In August, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.2% year-on-year, while the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.4% year-on-year. From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) rose by 0.5% year-on-year [1] - The spokesperson from the National Bureau of Statistics indicated that the economic growth remains "stable," and emphasized the need for macro policies to support employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, aiming for a steady and healthy economic development [1][4] Domestic Demand Expansion - The effects of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are becoming evident, with the third batch of consumption upgrade policies being implemented, leading to a rapid increase in sales of related goods. In August, retail sales of household appliances, furniture, and cultural office supplies maintained double-digit growth [1][2] - The expansion of domestic demand is positively impacting production, with significant growth in sectors such as boiler and prime mover manufacturing (up 11.9%) and electric motor manufacturing (up 14.8%) in August [2] Private Investment Growth - The environment for private economic development is continuously improving, supported by a series of policies aimed at promoting private investment. In the high-tech sector, private investment in information services grew by 26.7% year-on-year, while professional technical services saw a 17.6% increase [3] - Private investment in infrastructure increased by 7.5% year-on-year from January to August, outpacing the overall infrastructure investment growth by 5.5 percentage points [3] Economic Outlook - The economic operation is expected to maintain a steady and progressive trend in the third quarter, supported by ongoing macro policies. The industrial and service sectors are showing rapid growth, with industrial output in July and August growing by 5.7% and 5.2% respectively [4] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been rising, with increases of 0.8% and 0.9% in July and August, indicating a continuous upward trend over four months [4]

Group 1 - China's economic policies this year focus on boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency, with recent data indicating positive effects from these policies [1] - The third batch of funds for replacing old consumer goods has stimulated demand, leading to double-digit growth in retail sales of home appliances, furniture, and cultural office supplies in August [1] - Service consumption is also on the rise, with a 5.1% year-on-year increase in service retail sales over the first eight months, outpacing goods retail growth [1] Group 2 - The expansion of domestic demand policies is positively impacting production, with significant year-on-year increases in manufacturing sectors such as boiler and motor manufacturing, at 11.9% and 14.8% respectively in August [2] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors are experiencing growth rates of 9.3% and 8.1%, respectively, indicating a structural upgrade in the manufacturing industry [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained stable in August, reflecting improved production factor circulation and a better supply-demand relationship in various industries [2] Group 3 - In September, new policies are being introduced to enhance market efficiency and promote private investment, including pilot reforms in ten regions [3] - The current macroeconomic policy is characterized by a gradual and supportive approach, with expectations for increased policy intensity in response to last year's economic data base [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangdong Quality Products Exhibition aims to enhance domestic and international trade integration, boost consumption, and support high-quality economic development through effective platform utilization and market engagement [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The Guangdong Quality Products Exhibition features a theme of "Guangdong Quality Products, Beautiful Guangdong," focusing on consumer product displays and supply-demand matching [4]. - The exhibition includes five industry zones and will host 42 supply-demand matching activities, attracting 1,086 participating companies and 2,175 domestic and international professional buyers [4]. Group 2: Government Support and Expectations - Provincial leaders emphasize the importance of adhering to Xi Jinping's directives and taking responsibility for economic leadership, aiming to enhance trade integration and support economic recovery [3]. - Leaders encourage exhibitors to leverage the platform for expanding market reach and adapting to new consumer demands, while also enhancing product quality and innovation [1][3]. Group 3: Market Potential and Opportunities - Guangdong is recognized as a populous and consumer-rich province with vast market opportunities, encouraging buyers to engage with local enterprises and products [2]. - The government aims to create more cooperation opportunities for businesses through policy consultation, training, and promotional activities, particularly targeting upcoming consumer hotspots [3].

Economic Overview - In August, China's economy showed overall stability, with signs of recovery in economic sentiment, but further expansion of domestic demand policies is needed for sustained growth [1][8] - The National Bureau of Statistics will release key economic data on September 15, including industrial added value, retail sales, and fixed asset investment [1] Industrial Performance - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for industrial added value in August is 5.7%, consistent with the previous month [3] - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August is reported at 49.4%, indicating slight improvement, while the non-manufacturing PMI is at 50.3%, showing continued expansion [3] - Industrial production is supported by strong export performance, with container throughput and freight flights showing year-on-year increases [3][4] Consumer Spending - The forecast for year-on-year growth in social retail sales for August is 3.9%, slightly higher than the previous month's 3.7% [5] - The summer season has stimulated consumption in tourism and automotive sectors, although retail and housing-related consumption remain weak [5][6] - The automotive sector has seen significant growth, with production and sales exceeding 2 million units for the first eight months of the year, and August figures showing a year-on-year increase of 13% in production and 16.4% in sales [6] Fixed Asset Investment - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for fixed asset investment in August is 1.5%, slightly lower than the previous month's 1.6% [7] - Infrastructure investment is expected to receive support from government fiscal spending and the allocation of new policy financial tools [7] - The focus on "two new" and "two重" investments is anticipated to stimulate private sector investment and support fixed asset investment growth [7][8] Policy Outlook - The economic outlook indicates a need for policies that focus on expanding domestic demand, stabilizing foreign trade, and optimizing economic structure [8] - The implementation of new policy financial tools and continued support for major projects are expected to enhance effective investment [8] - Long-term strategies will focus on high-quality urban development, new industrialization, and the cultivation of new economic drivers [8]