证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 20 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 11 月 20 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要观点 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势：11 月 19 日上证指数上涨 0.18%，沪深 300 上涨 0.44%，科创 50 下跌 0.97%，中证 1000 下跌 0.82%，创业 板指上涨 0.25%，恒生指数下跌 0.38%。 ❑ 行业：11 月月 19 日表现最好的行业分别是有色金属（+2.39%)、石油石化（+1.67%)、国防军工（+1.11%)、美容 护理（+1.09%)、银行（+0.92%)，表现最差的行业分别是综合（-3.08%)、房地产（-2.09%)、传媒（-1.72%)、建 筑材料（-1.71%)、商贸零售（-1.7%)。 ❑ 资金：11 月 19 日全 A 总成交额为 17426.66 亿元，南下资金净流入 65.91 亿港元。 ❑ 【浙商宏观 李超/潘高远】宏 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Market Trends**: The U.S. stock market is expected to reach critical points by the end of 2025, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to S&P 500 ratio at 0.2 and S&P 500 P/E ratio exceeding 35 times, leading to a depreciation of the U.S. dollar and a favorable environment for non-U.S. markets [1][2] - **Inflation and Commodity Prices**: Inflation is anticipated to return in 2026, with resource prices potentially continuing to rise, driven by increased demand for commodities due to fixed asset investments and real estate policy stimuli [1][4] Key Insights on Specific Sectors Semiconductor and Storage Market - **Memory Market Recovery**: The memory market, particularly DDR4, has seen price increases since March 2025, driven by AI server demand. Supply tightness is expected to persist into mid-2026 [1][9][10] Lithium Battery Materials - **Price Trends**: The lithium battery materials market is projected to see price increases, particularly for lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) and FSI, with significant demand expected in Q1 2026. The price of FSI is expected to rise significantly due to increased usage and demand [3][12][14] Food and Beverage Sector - **Valuation and Recovery**: The food and beverage sector is at a near ten-year low in valuation, but signs of recovery are emerging, particularly in the restaurant chain segment. Major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to stabilize and grow in 2026 [20][21] Agricultural Sector - **Pork Price Dynamics**: The pork market is expected to see price increases due to a reduction in breeding sow capacity, with prices projected to rise from 13-14 RMB/kg in 2025 to 14-16 RMB/kg in 2026 [22][23] Chemical Industry - **Investment Opportunities**: The chemical sector is showing signs of activity, particularly in organic silicon and large refining. The potential for price increases exists due to low new capacity and rising demand [24][25] Phosphate Chemical Sector - **Future Prospects**: The phosphate chemical sector is expected to benefit from increasing demand for new energy materials, with companies like Yuntianhua positioned well for future growth [27] Membrane Industry - **Market Dynamics**: The membrane market is experiencing price increases, particularly in wet membranes, with supply expected to tighten further by 2026 due to limited new capacity [28][29] Additional Insights - **Macroeconomic Factors**: The anticipated economic policies in China and the U.S. are expected to create a favorable environment for various sectors, particularly in commodities and industrial metals [5][16] - **CRO Sector in Pharmaceuticals**: The CRO sector is showing a clear upward price trend, with companies like WuXi AppTec and others expected to benefit from increased R&D investments [17][19] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the conference call records, highlighting the expected trends and opportunities across various industries.

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a downward trend with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index declining, while certain sectors like banking are showing resilience [1] Market Performance - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.19% to 3969.05 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.27%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.51% [1] - Over 3700 stocks in the market were in the red, indicating widespread declines [1] - The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 1.2312 trillion yuan [1] Sector Analysis - Sectors such as metals, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, automobiles, brokerages, and liquor are all experiencing declines [1] - Conversely, the banking sector is performing well, with coal, insurance, electricity, and real estate sectors also showing gains [1] - Concepts related to cross-strait integration and shipping are becoming more active [1] Future Outlook - Huachuang Securities predicts a policy vacuum in the next 1-2 months, leading to potential market consolidation [1] - The push against "involution" may cause temporary setbacks in production data, but a mid-term perspective suggests a stronger inflation rebound driven by supply before demand [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" provides clearer economic growth targets and a more predictable policy environment, enhancing stability in both domestic and foreign policies, which may lead to further market uptrends [1] - A new cycle of profit growth has begun, with the market pricing in performance recovery, particularly in low-base sectors expected to show greater elasticity next year, focusing on cyclical and consumer sectors [1] Industry Insights - Historically, the collapse of the largest public fund sector is often due to fundamental risks leading to a downward cycle; however, the current electronics sector fundamentals do not indicate a similar collapse [1] - Attention should be paid to performance realization in the electronics sector moving forward [1] - Since October, there has been a continuous shift between high and low-performing stocks, which is expected to be gradual rather than abrupt [1] - For growth-oriented companies, internal structural adjustments are preferred over inter-industry shifts, with a focus on high-growth areas such as laser equipment, communication devices, PCB, and gaming [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the current state of various industries, including the futures market, photovoltaic (PV) industry, lithium carbonate market, and the pig farming sector, with a focus on the impact of anti-involution policies and macroeconomic factors. Key Insights and Arguments Futures Market and Economic Indicators - The market index has reached a new high of 3,674 points, reflecting the inflation bull market from last year, driven by relaxed birth policies and M2 growth, with credit circulation and household deposit shifts being key factors [1][4] - Future market pricing may reflect a return to inflation, with M1 showing strong recovery and anti-involution policies potentially sustaining commodity prices above May lows, indicating a bull market driven by physical inflation [1][5] Photovoltaic Industry - Multi-crystalline silicon futures prices rebounded since early July, influenced by discussions on anti-involution and price control measures in the PV sector, with current average prices around 47,000 yuan [1][6] - Domestic distributed PV module prices fell in early August but remain at a loss, with increased silicon material production leading to inventory build-up amid weak downstream demand [1][8] - The PV industry faces significant inventory pressure across all segments, with upstream silicon material inventory shifting to silicon wafer manufacturers, while terminal component demand remains weak [1][9] Lithium Carbonate Market - The shutdown of the Jiangxi Ningde Jianxia Mine is expected to impact domestic lithium carbonate production by approximately 12%, with short-term inventory levels allowing for continued production [1][14] - Overall demand for lithium carbonate is expected to increase, with market adjustments already underway to compensate for production shortfalls due to the mine's closure [1][15] Coal Market - The coking coal market has been significantly affected by anti-involution policies, with measures taken to curb low-price competition, providing effective support for coking coal prices [1][21] - The implementation of the 276 working day system has limited supply impacts, with the focus on self-regulation rather than strict enforcement [1][24] - The coal market is currently influenced by macroeconomic factors, with expectations of supply constraints due to regulatory measures and potential disruptions in imports from Mongolia [1][25][26] Pig Farming Sector - The pig market is less affected by anti-involution policies, with moderate regulatory measures in place, leading to stable supply and potential profitability for large-scale producers [1][39][46] - Current market dynamics indicate a potential for price fluctuations due to speculative behaviors and the impact of government policies on production practices [1][50][51] Additional Important Content - The conference highlights the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and government policies as they significantly influence market dynamics across various sectors [1][2][3] - The need for strong policy support in the PV industry to reverse the current cycle is emphasized, as the market is currently pricing in reasonable premiums based on policy expectations [1][10] - The interplay between supply and demand in the lithium carbonate market is critical, with inventory management strategies being employed to mitigate short-term fluctuations [1][17] This summary encapsulates the essential insights and arguments presented in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the discussed industries.

Core Viewpoint - In July, the "anti-involution" policy led to a narrowing of the PPI month-on-month decline to -0.2%, driven by key industries controlling volume and raising prices, alongside new funding allocations, the fading of promotional disturbances, and rising gold prices [1] Group 1: PPI and CPI Analysis - The year-on-year decline of PPI remains at a two-year low of -3.6%, while CPI has shifted from an increase to stability [1] - Core CPI has rebounded for the third consecutive month, indicating improvements in industrial consumer prices [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The fading of tailing factors may lead to improvements in PPI year-on-year and CPI year-on-year in the fourth quarter, starting from August [1] - To effectively drive inflation back to historical averages, stronger policy measures and a focus on expanding domestic demand are crucial [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market is entering a "super cycle" with significant price increases in gold and oil driven by inflation and geopolitical risks [1][8]. Group 1: Gold and Oil Price Dynamics - Gold is seen as both a safe-haven asset and an inflation hedge, with prices surpassing $2400 per ounce, supported by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions [4][6]. - Oil prices have risen due to supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical risks, with Brent crude oil prices returning above $85 per barrel, supported by OPEC+ production cuts and increased demand from China and the U.S. [4][7]. Group 2: TradeMax Platform Features - TradeMax offers a comprehensive trading platform for commodities, allowing users to trade gold and oil with features like low spreads and no expiration dates for contracts [4][5]. - The platform provides intelligent tools for decision-making, including real-time market analysis and alerts for significant economic events, enhancing trading strategies [4][8]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The outlook for gold and oil remains strong, with ongoing support from central bank purchases and geopolitical risks, although potential corrections may occur following Federal Reserve rate cuts [6][8]. - Technical analysis suggests gold could target $2500 per ounce, while Brent crude oil may challenge the $90 per barrel mark, indicating potential trading opportunities [8].

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the Chinese economy and its macroeconomic policies, particularly focusing on the implications of government reports and economic recovery strategies. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Government Work Report Insights**: The recent government work report confirms previous strategies indicating that China will implement dual frameworks to break the negative spiral of debt and price declines observed over the past two years [1] 2. **Economic Recovery Challenges**: There are concerns about the stability of economic recovery, particularly due to insufficient effective demand, weak consumer spending, and ongoing operational difficulties for some enterprises, including accounts receivable issues [2] 3. **Policy Necessity Post-Conference**: The necessity for policy development remains evident, as indicated by the discussions during the conference, emphasizing the need for timely policy responses to uncertainties [3] 4. **Inflation Targeting**: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) target for this year is set at 2%, which differs significantly from previous years, suggesting a more proactive approach to managing inflation and supporting economic circulation [4] 5. **Government Debt and Fiscal Policy**: The expansion of government debt is notable, with the central government's debt ratio rising to 29% and local government debt reaching 36.7%. This reflects a broader trend of increasing government intervention in the economy [6] 6. **Focus on Technology and Employment**: The emphasis on technology in the government’s agenda highlights a shift towards innovation and job stability, indicating a more favorable outlook for tech investments [7] 7. **Asset Price Stability**: Maintaining stable asset prices is crucial for breaking the cycle of declining consumer confidence and spending, as a significant portion of household wealth is tied to real estate and stock markets [8] 8. **Market Performance During Two Sessions**: The market's performance during the two sessions was stronger than expected, suggesting potential for a "air refueling" market rally if certain thresholds are surpassed [9] 9. **Historical Market Patterns**: Historical examples of market rallies in 2000, 2006, and 2015 illustrate the potential for significant upward movements following periods of consolidation [10] 10. **Investment Structure Changes**: There is a noticeable shift in investment structures, with increased leverage and institutional buying, indicating a potential for market bubble conditions [13] 11. **Public Offerings and Trading Volume**: The trading volume and public offerings have seen significant increases, suggesting a robust market environment that could support further growth [14] 12. **Sector Rotation**: The market is likely to experience sector rotations, moving from undervalued cyclical stocks to a broader market rally, particularly in technology and large-cap stocks [15] 13. **Future Economic Indicators**: The upcoming quarters will be critical in determining the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies, particularly regarding interest rate adjustments and economic data trends [12] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The discussion highlights the importance of monitoring high-frequency economic data to gauge the ongoing recovery and the potential for further policy interventions [12] - The call emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to managing inflation while fostering economic growth, indicating a complex interplay between fiscal and monetary policies [4][6] - The potential for a "air refueling" market scenario is contingent on achieving specific trading volume and market capitalization thresholds, which could lead to significant market expansions [10][16]