Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to trade in a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Core Viewpoints - Recent changes in the Russia - Ukraine battlefield show that Ukraine has shifted its targets from refineries to important export ports. Damage to important export terminals could significantly impact Russia's oil exports, and the subsequent situation needs close monitoring [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Key Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's October - delivery light crude oil futures rose 61 cents to $63.30 a barrel, a 0.97% increase; November - delivery London Brent crude futures rose 45 cents to $67.44 a barrel, a 0.67% increase. SC crude oil's main contract closed up 1.11% at 493 yuan per barrel [1] - Trump proposed sanctions on Russia if all NATO countries stop buying Russian oil, aiming to end the war and save lives [1] - Ukraine's drone and special operations forces attacked Kirishi Refinery in Russia's Leningrad Oblast. The refinery, one of Russia's top five, has an annual output of about 20 million tons [1] - The Doha Arab - Islamic Summit declared efforts to suspend Israel's UN membership [1] - The US Treasury Secretary said the US is willing to consider stricter sanctions on Russia, including targeting oil giants and using frozen Russian assets [1] Investment Logic - The shift in Ukraine's attacks from refineries to export ports may have a greater impact on Russia's oil exports, and the follow - up situation requires close attention [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to trade in a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, and macro black swan events occur [3] - Upside risks: The US tightens sanctions on Russian oil, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle East conflicts [3]

Core Points - The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting on September 12 regarding the incident of drones entering Polish airspace, with Russia denying any intention to escalate tensions with Poland [1] - Russia's UN representative Nebenzia stated that Poland acknowledged the drones may have originated from Ukraine, while criticizing Poland for hastily blaming Russia without evidence [1] - Poland's Foreign Minister Sikorski mentioned that he could not confirm whether the drones that entered Poland on the night of September 9 were attempting to attack targets within Poland, noting that drones had also entered from Belarus [1] - Sikorski indicated that Ukraine had informed Poland in advance about the drones entering its airspace [1]

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