信心政治
Search documents
从电动重卡到石油达峰,从能源革命到重塑世界新秩序
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 02:47
Core Viewpoint - The transition of energy from a "scarce resource" to an "abundant resource" will shift global energy politics from "anxiety politics" to "confidence politics" [1][16] Industry Insights - Electric trucks are emerging as a pivotal product at the intersection of the automotive and energy industries, with a significant increase in sales [2] - In the first half of this year, sales of new energy trucks in China grew by 175% year-on-year, reaching 76,100 units, accounting for about 25% of new truck sales [2] - The rapid growth of electric heavy trucks is expected to surpass that of passenger electric vehicles due to lower operating costs, with projections indicating they could account for 70%-80% of new sales in 2-3 years [2] - The expansion of electric heavy trucks is driven by subsidies and the rapid promotion of charging infrastructure, which is expected to significantly reduce diesel usage and oil demand in China, the world's largest crude oil importer [2] Market Dynamics - The Chinese government is vigorously promoting energy substitution strategies, leading to unprecedented progress in renewable energy infrastructure [3] - Predictions indicate that China's oil consumption may peak this year, accelerated by the unexpected surge in electric heavy truck sales, with a projected 40% reduction in diesel consumption in the transportation sector by 2030 [3] Historical Context - Historical energy politics have been shaped by the scarcity of fossil fuels, leading to conflicts and competition among nations [5][7] - The shift towards renewable energy and clean energy technologies is expected to alleviate the historical tensions associated with energy scarcity [10][15] Future Outlook - The investment in clean energy is projected to surpass that in fossil fuels, establishing a new, irreversible norm in global energy politics [13] - The anticipated transition to a confidence-based energy politics will reduce the need for aggressive responses to energy security threats, allowing for greater international cooperation [16][17]