Core Viewpoint - The July data on new RMB loans showed a rare negative value, primarily influenced by credit overdraft, insufficient loan demand, and hidden debt replacement, while social financing maintained a year-on-year increase supported by government bond financing [4][5][11] Group 1: Loan Data Analysis - In July, new RMB loans were -500 billion, marking the first negative value in 20 years, with a seasonal decrease of 2.29 trillion month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 310 billion, leading to a slowdown in the month-end loan balance growth rate to 6.9% [5][11] - The current loan interest rates are at historical lows, and the banking system has ample liquidity to meet market financing needs, with loan balance growth rates around 7.0%, significantly higher than nominal GDP growth [5][11] - The negative loan growth in July was attributed to three main factors: credit overdraft effects, economic fundamentals, and hidden debt replacement [9][11] Group 2: Social Financing Insights - July's new social financing was 1.16 trillion, with a seasonal decrease of 3.04 trillion month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 389.3 billion, marking the eighth consecutive month of year-on-year growth [7][11] - The increase in social financing was primarily driven by a significant rise in government bond financing, with new special bond issuance increasing year-on-year by 555.9 billion [7][11] - The overall social financing demand was mainly supported by government leverage, reflecting weak credit expansion willingness among residents and enterprises due to low confidence and expectations [7][11] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Economic Support - The M2 growth rate accelerated to 8.8% year-on-year, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, driven by increased social financing and government bond financing [8][10] - M1 growth also increased to 5.6% year-on-year, reflecting improved liquidity and indicating enhanced investment and consumption activity among enterprises and residents [8][10] - The overall financial support for the real economy remains strong, despite external environment fluctuations and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [11]