东方金诚宏观研究 7 月财政收入端有所改善，支出端继续发力 —— 2025 年 7 月财政数据点评 分析师：瞿瑞 冯琳 事件：财政部公布的数据显示，2025 年 7 月，全国一般公共预算收入同比增长 2.7%， 6 月为-0.3%；7 月全国一般公共预算支出同比增长 3.0%，6 月为 0.4%；1-7 月全国政府性 基金收入累计同比下降 0.7%，1-6 月为-2.4%；1-7 月全国政府性基金支出累计同比增长 31.7%，1-6 月为 30.0%。 主要观点：7 月广义财政收入同比增速从上月的 2.8%继续加快至 3.6%，广义财政支 出同比增速则较上月回落 5.5 个百分点至 12.1%，但处于两位数增长，显示收入端延续改 善，支出端则体现财政发力特征。往后看，下半年财政将继续发力支撑支出端，尤其是在 基建投资类。一方面，在上半年用于隐债置换的地方政府再融资专项债集中发行后，下半 年用于项目建设的地方政府新增专项债将大规模发行；另一方面，预计下半年有可能上调 支持"两重"投资的超长期特别国债发行规模，用于项目建设的地方政府新增专项债和国 企稳增长扩投资专项债发行额度也可能上调。另外，由于今年上半年财政前 ...

Group 1: Credit Data Overview - In July 2025, new RMB loans were -500 billion, a decrease of 3100 billion year-on-year, marking a rare negative value in 20 years[3] - The new social financing scale in July was 1.16 trillion, an increase of 3893 billion year-on-year, continuing a trend of year-on-year growth for eight consecutive months[6] - M2 growth rate in July was 8.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, while M1 growth rate was 5.6%, up 1.0 percentage points[1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Credit Fluctuations - The significant drop in new loans was attributed to three main factors: overdraft effects, insufficient loan demand, and hidden debt replacement[3] - The overdraft effect from the previous month led to a substantial decline in July's loan demand, with an average monthly loan issuance of 1.1 trillion over June and July, consistent with the previous year[3] - The hidden debt replacement contributed to a negative 2600 billion in new medium- and long-term loans for enterprises in July, indicating a large scale of hidden debt replacement[4] Group 3: Economic and Policy Implications - Despite a stable macroeconomic environment in the first half of the year, the second half is expected to maintain a supportive monetary policy to lower financing costs and stimulate internal demand[9] - The current low price levels in China provide ample space for monetary policy to focus on growth, with expectations of a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the central bank in the fourth quarter[9] - The increase in government bond financing significantly supported the social financing growth, with a notable increase of 5559 billion in government bond financing in July[6]

Loan Data Analysis - In May 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion, marking a record low growth rate of 7.1%[4][7] - Corporate loans decreased by 210 billion year-on-year, with medium to long-term corporate loans down by 170 billion, primarily due to local government debt replacement[8][9] - In contrast, short-term corporate loans increased by 230 billion year-on-year, driven by a low base from the previous year[9] Social Financing Insights - New social financing in May reached 22,894 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2,271 billion, continuing a trend of six consecutive months of year-on-year growth[4][11] - Government bond financing significantly contributed to social financing growth, with a year-on-year increase of 2,367 billion in May[11][12] - Corporate bond financing also rose by 1,211 billion year-on-year, aided by lower bond issuance rates and the launch of technology innovation bonds[12] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The M2 money supply grew by 7.9% year-on-year, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating strong financial support for the real economy[4][14] - The central bank is expected to continue implementing interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year to stimulate domestic demand[15] - Overall, the financial support for the real economy is anticipated to strengthen, with expectations for new loans and social financing to show significant year-on-year growth in the latter half of 2025[15]

Loan Data Analysis - In May 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion[1] - The month saw a seasonal increase of 340 billion in loans compared to the previous month, but the year-on-year decline indicates a weakening in loan growth[3] - Corporate loans decreased by 210 billion year-on-year, with medium to long-term corporate loans down by 170 billion, primarily due to local government debt replacement[3][4] Social Financing Insights - New social financing in May reached 2.29 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 227.1 billion, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth[2][6] - Government bond financing was a significant contributor, with a year-on-year increase of 236.7 billion in May, driven by higher net financing of treasury and special bonds[6] - Corporate bond financing also rose by 121.1 billion year-on-year, aided by lower bond issuance rates and the launch of technology innovation bonds[6] Monetary Supply Trends - As of the end of May, M2 growth was 7.9%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in deposit creation[7][8] - M1 growth accelerated to 2.3%, up by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, although it remains low, reflecting weak consumer spending and investment[8] - The increase in fiscal deposits due to large-scale government bond issuance has contributed to a temporary monetary contraction effect[7] Future Outlook - The financial support for the real economy is expected to strengthen further, with projections for continued year-on-year growth in social financing in June[2][9] - The central bank is anticipated to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year[9]

Group 1: Loan and Financing Trends - In April 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 280 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 450 billion, primarily due to the over-issuance in March and ongoing local debt replacement effects[1][4][11] - The total social financing (TSF) in April was 1.1585 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 1.2243 trillion, driven by a low base from the previous year and significant government bond issuance[1][7][11] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.0% year-on-year, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating enhanced financial support for the real economy[1][9][11] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The People's Bank of China announced a series of financial support policies on May 7, including interest rate cuts, which are expected to increase bank lending capacity by approximately 1 trillion[3][12] - The easing of the US-China trade tensions, as noted in the May 12 joint statement, may partially restore bilateral trade, although high tariffs will continue to pose challenges[3][12] - The expectation is for continued year-on-year increases in credit and social financing in May, with M2 growth also anticipated to accelerate[3][12][13] Group 3: Structural Changes in Loan Distribution - From January to April 2025, new loans totaled 10.06 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 130 billion, largely influenced by local debt replacement factors[1][6][11] - The structure of loans has improved, with the proportion of loans to small and micro enterprises, manufacturing, and key service sectors increasing significantly[1][6]

裘翔｜中信证券首席A股策略师 S1010518080002 策略｜"国家队"未曾减持ETF 2023年10月以来，中央汇金通过增持ETF有效稳定资本市场预期、提振投资者信心。 根据公募基金23Q4-25Q1季度披露的持有人数据，汇金持有的ETF份额未曾出现环比 净减少的情况，诸如"汇金通常在市场阶段性上涨后卖出"等传言与实际情况完全不 符。2025年4月以来，汇金持有的ETF获明显的资金净流入，且结构上更加均衡。我 们认为，A股也是中国贸易战中提振信心的关键环节，应充分相信国家维护资本市场 稳定的决心。同时，本文汇总了对这一揽子ETF资金流的跟踪测算方式，供投资者参 考。 风险因素：一揽子ETF的净申赎、成交量、净买入水平估算方式并非汇金实际净申赎 数据，与中央汇金实际增持情况存在误差。 明明｜中信证券首席经济学家 S1010517100001 债市启明｜二季度隐债置换规模与区域占比 化债资金前置发行的背景下，一季度地方债发行规模创新高，合计发行2.84万亿元， 其中化债资金1.4万亿元，包括1.3万亿元置换隐债专项债和1172亿元特殊新增专项 债。但从新增地方债的角度看，一季度发行新增一般债2791亿元，新 ...

化债资金前置发行的背景下，一季度地方债发行规模创新高，合计发行2.84万亿元， 其中化债资金1.4万亿元，包括1.3万亿元置换隐债专项债和1172亿元特殊新增专项 债。但从新增地方债的角度看，一季度发行新增一般债2791亿元，新增专项债9602亿 元，节奏同比有所加快，但相对其余年份而言仍有差距。展望二季度，当前已公布发 行地方债合计规模约2.23万亿元，在"自审自发"试点落地后，新增债发行有望加速， 也可期待土储专项债的增量发行和化债资金的继续落地。配置角度，当前地方债利差 相对较高，流动性虽有改善，但仍低于市场平均水平，适合负债端稳定的配置机构进 行参与。 风险因素：监管政策超预期收紧；央行货币政策超预期；个别信用事件冲击等。 敖翀｜中信证券 金属行业首席分析师 S1010515020001 裘翔｜中信证券首席A股策略师 S1010518080002 策略｜"国家队"未曾减持ETF 2023年10月以来，中央汇金通过增持ETF有效稳定资本市场预期、提振投资者信心。 根据公募基金23Q4-25Q1季度披露的持有人数据，汇金持有的ETF份额未曾出现环比 净减少的情况，诸如"汇金通常在市场阶段性上涨后卖出"等传 ...