Revenue Insights - In July 2025, the national general public budget revenue increased by 2.7% year-on-year, improving from a decline of -0.3% in June[1] - Tax revenue grew by 5.0% in July, significantly higher than the previous month's growth of 1.0%, while non-tax revenue fell by 12.9%[5] - The cumulative general public budget revenue from January to July showed a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, compared to a decline of -0.3% previously[7] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure in July rose by 3.0% year-on-year, accelerating by 2.6 percentage points from May[8] - Cumulative expenditure from January to July grew by 3.4%, slightly below the average progress of 54.4% over the past five years, completing 54.1% of the annual budget[9] Government Fund Performance - In July, government fund revenue increased by 8.9% year-on-year, although this was a decrease of 11.9 percentage points from the previous month[10] - Government fund expenditure in July surged by 42.4% year-on-year, despite a slowdown of 36.8 percentage points from the previous month[11] - From January to July, government fund expenditure grew by 31.7%, significantly outpacing the revenue growth due to accelerated issuance of local government special bonds, totaling 2.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 1 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year[11]

Core Viewpoint - The July data on new RMB loans showed a rare negative value, primarily influenced by credit overdraft, insufficient loan demand, and hidden debt replacement, while social financing maintained a year-on-year increase supported by government bond financing [4][5][11] Group 1: Loan Data Analysis - In July, new RMB loans were -500 billion, marking the first negative value in 20 years, with a seasonal decrease of 2.29 trillion month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 310 billion, leading to a slowdown in the month-end loan balance growth rate to 6.9% [5][11] - The current loan interest rates are at historical lows, and the banking system has ample liquidity to meet market financing needs, with loan balance growth rates around 7.0%, significantly higher than nominal GDP growth [5][11] - The negative loan growth in July was attributed to three main factors: credit overdraft effects, economic fundamentals, and hidden debt replacement [9][11] Group 2: Social Financing Insights - July's new social financing was 1.16 trillion, with a seasonal decrease of 3.04 trillion month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 389.3 billion, marking the eighth consecutive month of year-on-year growth [7][11] - The increase in social financing was primarily driven by a significant rise in government bond financing, with new special bond issuance increasing year-on-year by 555.9 billion [7][11] - The overall social financing demand was mainly supported by government leverage, reflecting weak credit expansion willingness among residents and enterprises due to low confidence and expectations [7][11] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Economic Support - The M2 growth rate accelerated to 8.8% year-on-year, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, driven by increased social financing and government bond financing [8][10] - M1 growth also increased to 5.6% year-on-year, reflecting improved liquidity and indicating enhanced investment and consumption activity among enterprises and residents [8][10] - The overall financial support for the real economy remains strong, despite external environment fluctuations and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [11]

Group 1: Credit Data Overview - In July 2025, new RMB loans were -500 billion, a decrease of 3100 billion year-on-year, marking a rare negative value in 20 years[3] - The new social financing scale in July was 1.16 trillion, an increase of 3893 billion year-on-year, continuing a trend of year-on-year growth for eight consecutive months[6] - M2 growth rate in July was 8.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, while M1 growth rate was 5.6%, up 1.0 percentage points[1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Credit Fluctuations - The significant drop in new loans was attributed to three main factors: overdraft effects, insufficient loan demand, and hidden debt replacement[3] - The overdraft effect from the previous month led to a substantial decline in July's loan demand, with an average monthly loan issuance of 1.1 trillion over June and July, consistent with the previous year[3] - The hidden debt replacement contributed to a negative 2600 billion in new medium- and long-term loans for enterprises in July, indicating a large scale of hidden debt replacement[4] Group 3: Economic and Policy Implications - Despite a stable macroeconomic environment in the first half of the year, the second half is expected to maintain a supportive monetary policy to lower financing costs and stimulate internal demand[9] - The current low price levels in China provide ample space for monetary policy to focus on growth, with expectations of a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the central bank in the fourth quarter[9] - The increase in government bond financing significantly supported the social financing growth, with a notable increase of 5559 billion in government bond financing in July[6]

Loan Data Analysis - In May 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion, marking a record low growth rate of 7.1%[4][7] - Corporate loans decreased by 210 billion year-on-year, with medium to long-term corporate loans down by 170 billion, primarily due to local government debt replacement[8][9] - In contrast, short-term corporate loans increased by 230 billion year-on-year, driven by a low base from the previous year[9] Social Financing Insights - New social financing in May reached 22,894 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2,271 billion, continuing a trend of six consecutive months of year-on-year growth[4][11] - Government bond financing significantly contributed to social financing growth, with a year-on-year increase of 2,367 billion in May[11][12] - Corporate bond financing also rose by 1,211 billion year-on-year, aided by lower bond issuance rates and the launch of technology innovation bonds[12] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The M2 money supply grew by 7.9% year-on-year, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating strong financial support for the real economy[4][14] - The central bank is expected to continue implementing interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year to stimulate domestic demand[15] - Overall, the financial support for the real economy is anticipated to strengthen, with expectations for new loans and social financing to show significant year-on-year growth in the latter half of 2025[15]

Loan Data Analysis - In May 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion[1] - The month saw a seasonal increase of 340 billion in loans compared to the previous month, but the year-on-year decline indicates a weakening in loan growth[3] - Corporate loans decreased by 210 billion year-on-year, with medium to long-term corporate loans down by 170 billion, primarily due to local government debt replacement[3][4] Social Financing Insights - New social financing in May reached 2.29 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 227.1 billion, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth[2][6] - Government bond financing was a significant contributor, with a year-on-year increase of 236.7 billion in May, driven by higher net financing of treasury and special bonds[6] - Corporate bond financing also rose by 121.1 billion year-on-year, aided by lower bond issuance rates and the launch of technology innovation bonds[6] Monetary Supply Trends - As of the end of May, M2 growth was 7.9%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in deposit creation[7][8] - M1 growth accelerated to 2.3%, up by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, although it remains low, reflecting weak consumer spending and investment[8] - The increase in fiscal deposits due to large-scale government bond issuance has contributed to a temporary monetary contraction effect[7] Future Outlook - The financial support for the real economy is expected to strengthen further, with projections for continued year-on-year growth in social financing in June[2][9] - The central bank is anticipated to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year[9]

Group 1: Loan and Financing Trends - In April 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 280 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 450 billion, primarily due to the over-issuance in March and ongoing local debt replacement effects[1][4][11] - The total social financing (TSF) in April was 1.1585 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 1.2243 trillion, driven by a low base from the previous year and significant government bond issuance[1][7][11] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.0% year-on-year, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating enhanced financial support for the real economy[1][9][11] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The People's Bank of China announced a series of financial support policies on May 7, including interest rate cuts, which are expected to increase bank lending capacity by approximately 1 trillion[3][12] - The easing of the US-China trade tensions, as noted in the May 12 joint statement, may partially restore bilateral trade, although high tariffs will continue to pose challenges[3][12] - The expectation is for continued year-on-year increases in credit and social financing in May, with M2 growth also anticipated to accelerate[3][12][13] Group 3: Structural Changes in Loan Distribution - From January to April 2025, new loans totaled 10.06 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 130 billion, largely influenced by local debt replacement factors[1][6][11] - The structure of loans has improved, with the proportion of loans to small and micro enterprises, manufacturing, and key service sectors increasing significantly[1][6]

裘翔｜中信证券首席A股策略师 S1010518080002 策略｜"国家队"未曾减持ETF 2023年10月以来，中央汇金通过增持ETF有效稳定资本市场预期、提振投资者信心。 根据公募基金23Q4-25Q1季度披露的持有人数据，汇金持有的ETF份额未曾出现环比 净减少的情况，诸如"汇金通常在市场阶段性上涨后卖出"等传言与实际情况完全不 符。2025年4月以来，汇金持有的ETF获明显的资金净流入，且结构上更加均衡。我 们认为，A股也是中国贸易战中提振信心的关键环节，应充分相信国家维护资本市场 稳定的决心。同时，本文汇总了对这一揽子ETF资金流的跟踪测算方式，供投资者参 考。 风险因素：一揽子ETF的净申赎、成交量、净买入水平估算方式并非汇金实际净申赎 数据，与中央汇金实际增持情况存在误差。 明明｜中信证券首席经济学家 S1010517100001 债市启明｜二季度隐债置换规模与区域占比 化债资金前置发行的背景下，一季度地方债发行规模创新高，合计发行2.84万亿元， 其中化债资金1.4万亿元，包括1.3万亿元置换隐债专项债和1172亿元特殊新增专项 债。但从新增地方债的角度看，一季度发行新增一般债2791亿元，新 ...

Group 1 - The central government has not reduced its holdings in ETFs since October 2023, with Central Huijin increasing its ETF holdings to stabilize market expectations and boost investor confidence [1] - As of April 2025, Central Huijin's ETF holdings have shown significant net inflows, contradicting rumors that it typically sells after market rallies [1] - The A-share market is considered a key element in boosting confidence amid the trade war, reflecting the government's commitment to maintaining market stability [1] Group 2 - In Q1 2023, local government bond issuance reached a record high of 2.84 trillion yuan, with 1.4 trillion yuan allocated for debt replacement [2] - The issuance of new general bonds and special bonds has accelerated, with expectations for further increases in Q2 due to the implementation of self-examination and self-issuance trials [2] - The current high yield spread of local government bonds makes them suitable for stable institutional investors [2] Group 3 - The Ministry of Natural Resources has set the tungsten mining quota for 2025 at 58,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons or 6.5% from the previous year [3] - The tightening of mining quotas, along with environmental regulations and declining ore grades, is expected to limit short-term supply in the tungsten industry [3] - Increased demand from downstream sectors, particularly in photovoltaic tungsten wire, is anticipated to support an upward trend in tungsten prices [3] Group 4 - Core companies in the commercial aerospace sector reported strong Q1 results, with Chengchang Technology and Zhenlei Technology showing significant profit growth of 300.06% and 495.74% year-on-year, respectively [6] - The Shanghai government aims to grow the commercial aerospace industry to over 100 billion yuan by 2027, indicating strong policy support [6] - The satellite internet industry is entering a phase of growth, driven by core company performance and increasing orders [6]