偿付能力充足率下降原因
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2025前三季度寿险行业净利润增62%,但偿付能力充足率比年初下滑20个百分点,为什么?
13个精算师· 2025-11-12 11:05
Core Viewpoint - The life insurance industry has experienced a significant increase in net profit, reaching 462 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 62%, marking a historical high. However, the comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio has dropped sharply to 204.1%, down 20 percentage points from the end of the previous year, indicating a divergence between profit growth and solvency pressure [1][3][5]. Group 1: Profit Growth Analysis - The substantial increase in net profit is attributed to the overall rise in the stock market, with many companies, including China Life and Ping An Life, adopting new accounting standards that significantly impact profit reporting [6][9]. - The new accounting standards classify most equity investments as financial assets measured at fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL), leading to higher volatility in reported profits compared to the old standards [7][8]. - The net profit growth is also influenced by a 15.8% increase in equity and a 19 basis point rise in the 10-year government bond yield, despite the 750-day moving average yield declining by 26 basis points [7][8]. Group 2: Solvency Adequacy Ratio Decline - The decline in the comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio is due to differences in reporting rules for solvency and financial statements, particularly regarding reserve liabilities [10][11]. - Many companies have reclassified held-to-maturity (HTM) assets to fair value through other comprehensive income (FVOCI), impacting their solvency calculations [11][12]. - The 10-year government bond yield has risen, but the 750-day moving average yield continues to decline, creating pressure on reserve requirements and increasing liabilities for insurance companies [13][15][19]. Group 3: Capital Requirements and Market Dynamics - The actual capital of the life insurance industry has only grown by 8% compared to the beginning of the year, while recognized liabilities have increased by 15%, leading to a decrease in the solvency adequacy ratio [24]. - The rise in stock prices has increased capital requirements due to the counter-cyclical adjustment mechanism, which raises capital requirements as equity values increase [21][25]. - The overall increase in capital requirements, particularly for equity risk, has outpaced the growth in actual capital, contributing to the decline in solvency adequacy [24][25].