智通财经记者 | 冯丽君 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 随着第三季度偿付能力报告的披露，人身险公司综合退保率变化也浮出水面。 综合退保率是评估人身险公司现金流风险水位的重要指标，也是衡量保险公司业务质量的关键。 智通财经记者梳理目前已披露三季度综合退保率的70家人身险公司第三季度偿付能力报告发现，整理来 看，相比2024年前三季度，近八成人身险公司2025年三季度综合退保率呈现下降趋势，但仍有15家人身 险公司三季度综合退保率同比上升。 而从退保率、退保金额居前的具体保险产品来看，以投连险、万能险等理财属性较强的产品为主；渠道 方面，银保渠道仍是退保"重灾区"。 北京大学应用经济博士后朱俊生教授对智通财经表示，行业退保率整体下降，反映出产品结构改善、客 户经营能力增强以及市场利率预期稳定。然而，退保压力仍集中在理财属性强的产品上，尤其是投连险 和万能险。银保渠道因客户理财化特征、件均保费高、销售收益导向等因素，仍是退保的主要来源。未 来，在利率持续下行的背景下，优化产品结构、提升客户风险认知和长期经营能力，将成为险企控制退 保风险的关键。 55家人身险企退保率下降， ...

Core Insights - The article compares the investment performance of social security funds, enterprise annuities, and life insurance funds over the past 15 years, highlighting that the life insurance industry has the highest investment yield and the lowest volatility, with the highest Sharpe ratio [1][6][34]. Investment Performance Comparison - In 2024, the scale of social security funds is approximately 3.3 trillion yuan, while enterprise annuities amount to 3.6 trillion yuan. In contrast, the scale of life insurance investment funds reaches 30 trillion yuan, significantly higher than both social security funds and enterprise annuities [27]. - The average investment yield for social security funds is 6.2%, for enterprise annuities is 4.7%, and for life insurance funds is 5.1% [34]. - The standard deviation of life insurance funds' yield is the lowest among the three, indicating lower risk [34]. - The Sharpe ratio for life insurance funds is the highest at 1.406, followed by social security funds at 0.619, and enterprise annuities at 0.598. The average yield of the Shanghai Composite Index is below the risk-free rate, resulting in a negative Sharpe ratio [34][35]. Investment Strategies and Asset Allocation - The investment strategies of social security funds, enterprise annuities, and life insurance funds differ significantly due to their underlying asset allocations. Social security funds have increased their equity asset allocation from 23.7% in 2008 to 53.6% in 2024 [7][17]. - Enterprise annuities maintain a high allocation to equity assets, consistently above 80% over the past decade, reaching 86.8% by 2024 [25]. - Life insurance funds have approximately 20.3% of their assets in equity and long-term equity investments [19]. Regulatory Environment - The regulatory frameworks for social security funds and enterprise annuities differ from that of insurance funds, which must consider risks such as policyholder withdrawals and liquidity [37]. - The 2025 regulations allow insurance companies more flexibility in equity asset allocation based on their solvency ratios, with limits set at 40% or 50% depending on their solvency status [15][17].

Core Insights - The insurance industry in China has shown differentiated growth in premium income across various insurance types, driven by market demand and product supply factors [2][4] Group 1: Premium Income Overview - In the first three quarters of this year, life insurance companies achieved original insurance premium income of 38,434 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, while property insurance companies reported premium income of 13,712 billion yuan, up 4.9% [1] - Life insurance premium income accounted for 82.5% of total premium income for life insurance companies, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7% [3] - The highest growth in premium income among life insurance products was seen in investment-linked insurance, which reached 16.7 billion yuan, growing by 22.4% year-on-year [3] Group 2: Growth Drivers - The robust growth in life insurance is primarily driven by the demand for guaranteed return products, such as endowment insurance, during a declining interest rate environment [4] - The increase in health insurance premiums is attributed to rising health awareness among the population and the aging demographic, alongside product innovation and policy initiatives [4] - The growth in accident insurance is linked to the recovery of social mobility and increased outdoor activities, reflecting the vibrancy of economic activities [4] Group 3: Regulatory Impact - The "reporting and operation integration" policy has been deeply implemented, affecting both short-term and long-term premium income for insurance companies [5][6] - The recent regulatory notifications emphasize the need for compliance in non-auto insurance products, which is expected to lead to a reduction in expense ratios and improve underwriting profit margins for property insurance companies [5] - The long-term effects of the "reporting and operation integration" policy are anticipated to foster high-quality development in the insurance industry, encouraging innovation and enhancing service quality [6]

Core Viewpoint - The life insurance industry has experienced a significant increase in net profit, reaching 462 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 62%, marking a historical high. However, the comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio has dropped sharply to 204.1%, down 20 percentage points from the end of the previous year, indicating a divergence between profit growth and solvency pressure [1][3][5]. Group 1: Profit Growth Analysis - The substantial increase in net profit is attributed to the overall rise in the stock market, with many companies, including China Life and Ping An Life, adopting new accounting standards that significantly impact profit reporting [6][9]. - The new accounting standards classify most equity investments as financial assets measured at fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL), leading to higher volatility in reported profits compared to the old standards [7][8]. - The net profit growth is also influenced by a 15.8% increase in equity and a 19 basis point rise in the 10-year government bond yield, despite the 750-day moving average yield declining by 26 basis points [7][8]. Group 2: Solvency Adequacy Ratio Decline - The decline in the comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio is due to differences in reporting rules for solvency and financial statements, particularly regarding reserve liabilities [10][11]. - Many companies have reclassified held-to-maturity (HTM) assets to fair value through other comprehensive income (FVOCI), impacting their solvency calculations [11][12]. - The 10-year government bond yield has risen, but the 750-day moving average yield continues to decline, creating pressure on reserve requirements and increasing liabilities for insurance companies [13][15][19]. Group 3: Capital Requirements and Market Dynamics - The actual capital of the life insurance industry has only grown by 8% compared to the beginning of the year, while recognized liabilities have increased by 15%, leading to a decrease in the solvency adequacy ratio [24]. - The rise in stock prices has increased capital requirements due to the counter-cyclical adjustment mechanism, which raises capital requirements as equity values increase [21][25]. - The overall increase in capital requirements, particularly for equity risk, has outpaced the growth in actual capital, contributing to the decline in solvency adequacy [24][25].

Summary of Insurance Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The insurance industry is experiencing significant profit growth, with overall profit growth exceeding 30% in the first three quarters of 2025, and quarterly growth approaching 70% [1][5] - The industry is shifting focus from premium income to investment returns, emphasizing the importance of positive returns from premiums rather than just the total premium volume [1][10] Key Financial Metrics - Insurance companies' return on equity (ROE) has surpassed 30% for some A-share listed companies, significantly higher than the approximately 10% ROE of leading brokerage firms [5] - The non-annualized comprehensive investment return rate for the first three quarters of 2025 is approximately 5.4%, a year-on-year increase of 1 percentage point [4][14] Premium Income and Growth - Premium income is expected to continue double-digit growth, projected to reach between 4.45 trillion to 4.6 trillion yuan in 2025, up from around 4 trillion yuan the previous year [1][7] - New business value (NBV) is also showing high growth, with some companies like China Life and Ping An seeing significant increases in new single premium income [7] Investment Strategies - As of mid-2025, the insurance industry's investment asset scale is approximately 36 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of about 9% since the beginning of the year [11] - The proportion of bond investments has risen to over 50%, while equity assets remain stable at around 12% to 13% [12] Dividend Policies - Companies are expected to announce significant increases in dividends for the 2025 fiscal year, reflecting strong profit performance despite previous volatility in profit due to new accounting standards [6][21] Channel Development - The bank insurance channel is gaining prominence, with its new business value share increasing significantly, while the number of individual insurance agents is declining [9][20] - The bank insurance channel's premium share is expected to surpass that of individual insurance channels soon [20] Future Outlook - The outlook for the insurance industry in 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of continued growth in premium income, particularly from the bank insurance channel [22] - The market is advised to focus on profit growth rather than just valuation levels when selecting investment targets [22][27] Regulatory Changes - The transition to new accounting standards from 2023 to 2025 is a significant factor, with full implementation expected in 2026, which poses challenges for companies, especially smaller ones [13] Investment Opportunities - The insurance sector remains an attractive investment option, with a recommendation to focus on companies with strong profit growth and stable dividend policies [27] Miscellaneous Insights - The demand for savings-type products remains strong despite declining household incomes, as these products are more closely related to household wealth rather than income levels [8] - The insurance industry is increasingly viewed as a potential asset management company, focusing on improving asset management capabilities in a low-interest-rate environment [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the insurance industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [3][26]. Core Viewpoints - The insurance industry experienced a total premium income of 52,146 billion yuan from January to September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.9 percentage points. The life insurance sector's premium income was 31,708 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7% [7][8]. - The report highlights that the life insurance sector is facing challenges due to a decline in sales attributed to the adjustment of the preset interest rate, which has led to a cooling in sales in September 2025 [7][8]. - The property insurance sector showed improved performance, with a total premium income of 13,712 billion yuan from January to September 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [7][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The life insurance sector's cumulative growth has slowed, impacting overall premium growth. The health and accident insurance segments have shown growth, with health insurance premiums reaching 8,427 billion yuan (up 2.4% year-on-year) and accident insurance at 760 billion yuan (up 3.3% year-on-year) [7][8]. - The total assets of the insurance industry reached 40.4 trillion yuan by the end of September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.5% [7][8]. Life Insurance Companies - Life insurance companies reported a total premium income of 38,434 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.5%. However, September saw a decline in life insurance premiums by 4.6% year-on-year [7][8]. - The report notes that the adjustment of the preset interest rate has had a short-term impact on sales, particularly in September [7][8]. Property Insurance Companies - The property insurance sector's premium income showed a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, with car insurance accounting for 50% of the total premiums [7][8]. - The report indicates that the recent regulatory changes in non-auto insurance are expected to enhance cost efficiency in the industry, benefiting leading companies [7][8].

Group 1 - The insurance industry is expected to shift towards participating insurance products in 2026 due to resilient liability growth despite a low interest rate environment. Sales of participating insurance have exceeded earlier expectations, which may drive positive growth in new individual premium income and sustain high growth in bank insurance channels [1][2][3] - The participating critical illness insurance is anticipated to boost the sales of protection products, optimize product structure, and diversify revenue sources. However, challenges remain on the asset side, as low interest rates continue to pressure cash investment returns, squeezing the space to cover the rigid costs of life insurance [1][4] - High-quality sales channels and asset-liability matching are deemed crucial for insurance companies to maintain competitive advantages amid uncertainties. Companies such as AIA, Ping An, PICC, and China Taiping are recommended for attention [1][4][10] Group 2 - Participating insurance is rapidly regaining mainstream status after years of stagnation, driven by a rebalancing of interests between insurance companies and customers in a low interest rate environment. Compared to traditional insurance, participating insurance aligns the interests of policyholders and insurers more closely, making it more suitable for the current low-rate context [2][14] - The expected growth rate of new business value (NBV) for listed companies in 2026 is projected to reach around 20%, driven by the resurgence of participating insurance [2][14] Group 3 - The competitive strategy for participating insurance is more complex than traditional insurance, with a focus on establishing an appropriate market image or product persona. Strategies can be categorized into low-risk and high-risk approaches, depending on the target customer’s risk preference and the product's design [3][25] - Companies with high-quality sales channels have more flexibility in choosing their strategic direction, which should align with market image, customer positioning, product design, channel capabilities, and asset matching [3][25] Group 4 - The main challenges for insurance investments in 2026 include stabilizing cash returns and maintaining capital gains. The low interest rate environment is expected to compress cash investment returns, continuing to pose difficulties in covering rigid costs [4][30] - The past two years have seen excellent performance in equity investments, significantly boosting overall investment returns and profits for insurance companies. However, maintaining this level of performance in 2026 will require further advancements [4][32]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of interest rate fluctuations on the insurance industry, particularly focusing on the reclassification of assets and the potential risks associated with rising interest rates, which could lead to a "double kill" effect on financial stability and solvency ratios. Group 1: Asset Reclassification - Approximately 35 life insurance companies have reclassified their held-to-maturity (HTM) assets to available-for-sale (AFS) financial assets or applied the new financial instrument standard FVOCI in the past three years [1] - The reclassification has significantly increased the fair value of company assets, thereby enhancing net profits or other comprehensive income and improving solvency ratios [2] Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - Long-term interest rates have been declining, leading to rising bond prices, but a structural uptrend in government bond yields has been observed since 2025, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.86% as of September 30, 2025, up 19 basis points from the end of 2024 [4] - The upward trend in interest rates poses a direct impact on insurance companies that have reclassified a large amount of HTM assets to FVOCI, as rising rates lead to a decrease in the fair value of bond investments, thereby exerting short-term pressure on solvency ratios [5] Group 3: Double Kill Risk - The "double kill" risk arises from the simultaneous impact on both asset and liability sides of the balance sheet, particularly due to the mismatch in duration between assets and liabilities [9] - The average asset duration for traditional insurance in China is about 7 years, while the liability duration is approximately 16 years, resulting in a duration gap of about 9 years [10][11][12][13] - As interest rates rise, the fair value of bond assets decreases, while the liability side experiences increased reserve requirements due to the lagging effect of the 750-day moving average of government bond yields, leading to a dual pressure on actual capital [7][8] Group 4: Future Implications - If interest rates continue to rise, it may reflect an improvement in the economic fundamentals, potentially enhancing reinvestment yields for insurance companies in the long term [18] - The focus should be on the company's investment strength and profitability as the core drivers for enhancing actual capital and optimizing solvency ratios, alongside monitoring operational quality indicators such as new business value rate and investment yield [19]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of new accounting standards in the life insurance industry by 2026 will lead to revolutionary changes in financial statements, breaking the traditional profit recognition smoothness and introducing a more transparent profit recognition model that reflects the economic substance of contracts [1]. Group 1: Contractual Service Margin (CSM) - Contractual Service Margin (CSM) represents the difference between the present value of expected future cash inflows (mainly premiums) and expected future cash outflows (including claims, expenses, investment management costs, and risk adjustments) at the initial recognition of a group of insurance contracts with similar risk characteristics [2][3]. - CSM serves as a "profit pool" or "water reservoir" that insurance companies accumulate in advance for future services, measured at initial recognition and listed on the balance sheet, but not yet realized as profit [3]. Group 2: CSM Amortization - CSM amortization refers to the process of gradually transferring amounts from CSM to profit and loss as the insurance company continues to provide insurance coverage to policyholders, reflecting the accounting principle of matching [3][5]. - The CSM amortization amount constitutes a significant part of the insurance company's current "insurance service revenue," effectively converting "unrealized" profits on the balance sheet into "realized" profits on the income statement [3]. Group 3: CSM Amortization Ratio - The CSM Amortization Ratio is introduced to measure the speed at which different insurance companies release profits, calculated as the ratio of CSM amortization to the CSM amortization basis [5][6]. - A higher amortization ratio indicates a greater proportion of insurance services provided during the period relative to the entire service period, leading to a larger proportion of previously accumulated profits being recognized [8]. Group 4: Industry Insights - The differences in amortization ratios among listed insurance companies provide insights into their business structures, profit models, financial strategies, and long-term development paths [12]. - As of the second quarter of 2025, the CSM for seven listed insurance companies was 2.2612 trillion yuan, with CSM amortization of 98.2 billion yuan, resulting in an amortization ratio of 4.2% [8].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is experiencing significant changes in the structure and estimation of incurred but not reported (IBNR) reserves, which are crucial for understanding the financial health of insurance companies. The IBNR reserves for 2024 are estimated at approximately 248 billion, accounting for 37.5% of the total reserves, remaining stable compared to the previous year [11][13][16]. Group 1: IBNR Reserves - IBNR reserves are primarily composed of three parts: reported but not settled claims, unreported claims, and claims handling expense reserves. The estimation of IBNR involves predicting future claims based on historical data and actuarial models, which introduces a degree of uncertainty [10][11]. - The proportion of IBNR reserves to total reserves has increased from 15.4% in 2010 to 39.4% in 2022, but has shown signs of a recent decline [13]. - For major insurance companies in 2024, the IBNR proportion of total reserves is as follows: People's Insurance Company of China (35.3%), Ping An Property & Casualty (39.9%), and China Pacific Insurance (35.8%), with the latter showing a decrease of 4.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [16][18]. Group 2: Cash Flow and Cost Ratios - A new accounting standard for insurance contracts has introduced a metric for changes in cash flow related to incurred claims liabilities. This metric reflects the difference between actual and estimated claim payments, impacting the book value of insurance liabilities [5][24]. - The ratio of changes in incurred claims liabilities to insurance service revenue for 2024 is projected to be -4.5%, indicating favorable changes that have led to a reduction in the comprehensive cost ratio for eight major insurance companies by approximately 4.5 percentage points [7][29]. - The total incurred claims liabilities for eight companies adopting the new accounting standard represent about 75% of the market share in the property and casualty insurance sector [24]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Comparisons - The average IBNR proportion across the industry for 2024 is 37.5%, with a simple average of 46.3% and a median of 43.2%. Ten companies have an IBNR proportion exceeding 70% [14]. - The ratio of total reserves to earned premiums for 2024 is 44.1%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 1 percentage point, with top three companies at 43.8% and smaller companies at 44.6% [13]. - The report highlights the differences in IBNR proportions among companies, which can be attributed to business structure and claims efficiency improvements [14][16].