储能行业盈利修复

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中信证券:储能行业迎来基本面拐点 盈利进入修复通道
智通财经网· 2025-09-05 01:35
Group 1: Core Insights - The storage industry is experiencing a fundamental turning point, moving out of a long-term deflationary phase due to high demand in Europe and the US, optimized supply, and price recovery [1] - The US storage market is expected to see an increase in installation capacity in 2026, contrary to previous expectations of a decline, driven by the OBBBA Act and a surge in orders from domestic manufacturers [1] - In Europe, the demand for large-scale storage is expected to grow significantly, with a forecasted increase in installation capacity to over 50 GWh in 2026, driven by high installation targets for renewable energy [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The US storage market is projected to have a compound annual growth rate of 28% from 2024 to 2026, with expected installation volumes of 45 GWh in 2025 and 59 GWh in 2026 [1] - In Europe, large-scale storage is expected to contribute significantly to the market, with demand projected to reach 8.8 GWh in 2024 and 16.3 GWh in 2025, reflecting an 86% year-on-year increase [2] - The penetration rate of Chinese companies in the European market is rapidly increasing, with significant market share gains in the household storage segment [2] Group 3: Pricing and Profitability - The battery cell prices are beginning to rise, indicating a recovery in demand, with small battery cells seeing price increases of 3-5 cents/Wh and larger cells increasing by 1-2 cents/Wh [3] - The domestic storage market is entering a price turning point, with expectations that battery manufacturers and leading integrators will benefit from increased profitability in 2025 [3] - The industry is moving towards a recovery phase, with the potential for the storage business to become profitable after a prolonged period of low margins [3]