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阿拉斯加阴影下:欧洲能否阻止特朗普用乌克兰换对俄和解?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 16:54
Core Viewpoint - The meeting at the White House on August 18, 2025, is a pivotal moment in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with European leaders uniting to address the potential shift in U.S. support under Trump's changing stance [1][3]. Group 1: European Strategy - European leaders have developed a "triple strategy" in response to Trump's unpredictable position, focusing on binding values and reconstructing security narratives [3]. - Macron emphasized that any peace agreement must include long-term security guarantees for Ukraine, framing it as an extension of European security architecture [3]. - The proposal for a collective defense mechanism similar to NATO's Article 5 aims to bind European security with Ukraine's fate, highlighting the importance of U.S. support for European strategic autonomy [3]. Group 2: Diplomatic Engagement - Finnish President Stubb plays a crucial role as a mediator, having established a personal rapport with Trump, which allows for informal communication regarding European positions [4]. - Stubb's "non-confrontational pressure" strategy aims to secure negotiation space without provoking Trump, emphasizing the need for a ceasefire before negotiations [4]. Group 3: Economic Considerations - German Chancellor Merz indicated that continued U.S. support for Ukraine could lead to substantial economic benefits for Europe in areas like energy cooperation and trade agreements [5]. - This approach aligns with Trump's transactional nature, potentially facilitating a compromise on the Ukraine issue while addressing U.S. interests in European defense markets [5]. Group 4: U.S. Political Dynamics - Trump's meeting serves as a test of his "America First" strategy, with a focus on short-term political gains ahead of the 2024 elections by promising to end the Ukraine war [7]. - His reluctance to make concessions is evident, as he publicly stated that Ukraine cannot reclaim Crimea, testing Europe's limits [7]. Group 5: Long-term Strategic Implications - The meeting reflects Trump's long-term strategy towards Russia, where he may consider recognizing Crimea as Russian territory in exchange for reduced U.S. military commitments [8]. - The U.S. administration's insistence on European alignment in defense spending and policies towards China further complicates transatlantic relations [9]. Group 6: Potential Outcomes - A compromise could stabilize the transatlantic alliance, providing Ukraine with a reprieve but potentially undermining European strategic autonomy [14]. - Conversely, if Trump maintains a hardline stance, Europe may accelerate defense integration, risking Ukraine's position in the geopolitical landscape [14].