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富创精密(688409):全球化产能布局完善,先进制程加速推进
China Post Securities· 2026-02-09 07:52
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [5][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to face temporary profit pressure due to strategic investments in key resources, advanced capacity, and talent reserves, with projected net losses for 2025 ranging from 12 million to 6 million yuan [3][5]. - The company has successfully established a global production capacity layout, with significant increases in fixed asset scale and corresponding depreciation costs, which are expected to stabilize as production ramps up [4][10]. - The company is focusing on advanced process iterations and has launched five major projects aimed at enhancing production capabilities, which have already begun mass production [4][10]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 37.5 billion, 50 billion, and 70 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to improve significantly from a loss of 0.08 billion yuan in 2025 to a profit of 6.6 billion yuan in 2027 [5][9]. - The company’s EBITDA is projected to grow from 600.39 million yuan in 2025 to 1.41 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [9][12]. - The company’s net profit margin is expected to recover from a negative 0.2% in 2025 to 9.4% by 2027, indicating improved profitability [12]. Relative Valuation - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic semiconductor equipment components sector, with a projected price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 13.02x for 2025, reflecting its growth potential amid increasing domestic demand for localized supply chains [10][11]. - The report highlights a favorable market environment driven by increased capital expenditures from overseas wafer fabs and a rapid rise in demand for domestic equipment components [10].