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光伏产业发展路线图出炉 新增装机或阶段性回调
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-05 20:14
Core Insights - The Chinese photovoltaic industry is expected to see a decline in new installed capacity in 2026, with estimates ranging from 180GW to 240GW, before returning to an upward trend post-2027 [1][3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has shown significant growth in the application market, with a 35.4% year-on-year increase in solar power capacity, reaching 1200GW by the end of 2025 [1] - The industry is currently undergoing a deep adjustment phase, facing challenges related to supply-demand mismatches and operational difficulties for enterprises [2] Industry Outlook - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for high-quality development, shifting focus from scale and price competition to value competition, emphasizing energy efficiency and technological innovation [2][3] - The average annual new installed capacity for the global photovoltaic market during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is projected to be between 725GW and 870GW, with China's contribution expected to be between 238GW and 287GW [3] - In 2026, the global new photovoltaic installed capacity is estimated to be between 500GW and 667GW, with China expected to see a temporary adjustment in new installations due to market uncertainties following recent policy changes [3] Strategic Initiatives - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to enhance collaboration among departments to achieve a dynamic balance of supply and demand through various measures, including capacity control and quality supervision [2] - Companies are encouraged to innovate and develop advanced photovoltaic technologies, particularly in areas like perovskite tandem cells, to build competitive advantages [2] - The manufacturing sector should focus on intelligent, green, and integrated development, while also exploring new markets such as commercial aerospace and consumer electronics [3]