光伏产业链价格触底回升

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光伏|看多光伏板块的几条理由
中信证券研究· 2025-03-04 00:10
Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic sector is considered worthy of attention, driven by four dimensions: industry chain prices, demand expectations, supply-side policies, and industry detail changes [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Chain Prices - Industry chain prices have bottomed out and are on the rise, influenced by changes in corporate behavior. For instance, the price of distributed TOPCon modules has increased from 0.65 yuan/W to 0.71 yuan/W, photovoltaic film prices have risen from 0.92 million yuan/ton to 1.14 million yuan/ton, and photovoltaic glass prices have gone up from 12 yuan/m² to 14 yuan/m² [3]. - Since Q2 2024, many companies in the photovoltaic industry have adopted contraction strategies, such as controlling operating rates and reducing inventory, leading to a significant destocking phase in Q4 2024 [3]. Group 2: Demand Expectations - The National Development and Reform Commission has set a target for renewable energy consumption to exceed 1.1 billion tons of standard coal by 2025 and 1.5 billion tons by 2030, which translates to an annual addition of approximately 200 GW of wind and solar installations [4]. - The recent guidelines indicate that by 2025, non-fossil energy generation will account for about 60% of installed capacity, supporting the resilience of domestic photovoltaic demand [4]. Group 3: Supply-Side Policies - The photovoltaic industry has faced significant pressure from overcapacity, prompting regulatory bodies to hold multiple meetings to address these challenges. Supply-side reforms are expected to gradually eliminate outdated capacity and improve efficiency [5]. - The long-term cash flow pressure has led to the exit of some capacities and the restructuring of smaller enterprises [5]. Group 4: Industry Detail Changes - The photovoltaic industry is anticipated to experience numerous changes this year, including advancements in technology such as increased penetration of BC batteries and the promotion of silver-to-copper and copper-to-silver technologies [6]. - The focus on product quality is expected to shift from extreme cost reduction to a balance of cost-effectiveness, potentially improving profitability for component products and related materials [6].