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第一太阳能(FSLR):组件销量稳步增长,大而美法案利好美国本土光伏企业
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-15 11:52
Investment Rating - The investment rating for First Solar (FSLR.O) is "Outperform" [5][37]. Core Views - First Solar's component sales are steadily increasing, benefiting from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) which favors domestic photovoltaic companies in the U.S. [2][37]. - The company maintains a robust order backlog, with 61.9 GW of orders as of the end of Q2 2025, and potential orders reaching 83.3 GW [2][30]. - The IRA is reshaping the U.S. photovoltaic supply chain, providing a competitive advantage to companies with domestic production capabilities [2][36]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, First Solar reported revenues of $1.942 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8%, while net profit was $551 million, down 6% year-on-year [1][9]. - For Q2 2025, the company achieved revenues of $1.097 billion, up 9% year-on-year and 30% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of $342 million, down 2% year-on-year but up 63% quarter-on-quarter [1][9]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 45.6%, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 31.2%, down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [1][9]. Sales and Orders - In Q2 2025, First Solar sold 3.6 GW of components, reflecting a 6% year-on-year increase and a 22% quarter-on-quarter increase [2][22]. - The average selling price of components was $0.31/W, up $0.01/W year-on-year and $0.02/W quarter-on-quarter [2][22]. - The company signed new orders of 0.9 GW in the first half of 2025, while canceling 1.1 GW of existing orders due to policy uncertainties [2][30]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for First Solar for 2025-2027 is maintained at $1.58 billion, $1.95 billion, and $2.49 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 22.0%, 23.7%, and 27.7% respectively [3][37]. - The diluted EPS is projected to be $14.76, $18.21, and $23.26 for 2025-2027, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 12.5, 10.2, and 7.9 [3][37]. Market Position - The company’s financial health remains strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 14.79x as of the end of Q2 2025, an improvement from 13.08x at the end of the previous year [9]. - First Solar's production capacity is approximately 21 GW, with plans to increase U.S. production to 14 GW and global capacity to 25 GW by the end of 2025 [30][36].