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光伏技术“三国争霸”:TOPCon优势期剩2年,BC“朋友圈”扩充,钙钛矿叠层成下一代热点
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-26 06:50
Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant technological evolution, with a competitive landscape dominated by TOPCon technology, while BC and HJT technologies are emerging as strong contenders. The future of the industry will be shaped by these technological advancements and their implications for market dynamics and company strategies [2][3]. Group 1: Current Industry Landscape - The current market structure is characterized by a dominant position of TOPCon technology, which holds over 70% market share, while BC and HJT technologies are gaining traction [2]. - Major companies like Jinko, JA Solar, Trina, and Tongwei have launched new products with power ratings exceeding 650W, indicating a push for higher efficiency [2]. - Longi Green Energy's latest HIBC technology has achieved power ratings of over 700W, showcasing the rapid advancements in BC technology [4]. Group 2: Future Projections - Jinko's CTO believes that TOPCon's competitive advantage can be maintained for at least two more years, despite the rising competition from BC technology [3]. - The theoretical efficiency limit for TOPCon technology is estimated at 28.7%, with current efficiencies around 27%, suggesting room for improvement but also highlighting challenges in surpassing this limit [3]. - The industry anticipates that from 2024, TOPCon will fully replace PERC as the mainstream technology, with a significant focus on TOPCon for business operations [8]. Group 3: Emerging Technologies - Perovskite tandem technology is viewed as the next significant innovation in the photovoltaic sector, with companies like Trina leading research efforts and aiming to establish a perovskite battery ecosystem [6][7]. - The market is expected to see a tenfold growth in BC technology over the next 3-5 years, indicating a strong potential for this technology to gain market share [5]. Group 4: Company Strategies and Innovations - Longi Green Energy has expanded its partnerships in the BC technology space, collaborating with 191 global partners to enhance its technological capabilities [5]. - Companies are focusing on reducing the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) as a critical strategy to enhance competitiveness in the market [10].
晶科能源谈“活起来”:650W组件产能占比越大,利润拐点到来越早
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-18 03:48
Core Viewpoint - The solar industry is currently facing challenges, with companies like JinkoSolar experiencing pressure on revenue and profits. The focus has shifted from mere survival to revitalization and finding a sustainable rhythm for growth [2][3]. Group 1: Company Strategy - JinkoSolar's primary focus for 2025 is on optimizing capacity upgrades and accelerating the release of high-efficiency production rather than expanding production capacity [4]. - The company aims to ship between 85-100 GW of modules in 2025, with a visibility of orders reaching 60-70% for Q1 and over 80% in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions [4]. - The introduction of the Tiger Neo 3.0 series is crucial for JinkoSolar's capacity upgrade, which is expected to enhance its bargaining power within the supply chain [4][5]. Group 2: Product Development - The Tiger Neo 3.0 series, launched at the SNEC exhibition, is designed to lead the N-type development with a power output of up to 670W and an efficiency of 24.8% [5]. - This new product is projected to reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and provide better investment returns, with an estimated 10% premium over traditional TOPCon products [5]. - JinkoSolar aims to transition to a production line dominated by 650W modules by the end of the year, targeting a 40-50% share of 650W and above modules in its total production capacity [5][6]. Group 3: Market Position and Competition - The company is cautious about new capacity additions, emphasizing the importance of global capabilities and local partnerships in its overseas strategy [6][7]. - JinkoSolar's current technology landscape is dominated by TOPCon, with expectations that it will remain the mainstream technology for the next five years, despite competition from BC and HJT technologies [8][10]. - The company believes that its TOPCon technology will maintain its competitive edge for at least two more years, with ongoing improvements expected to push efficiency beyond 28% in the next three years [9][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The Tiger Neo 3.0 components are anticipated to be available for global orders by Q4 2025, marking a significant step in JinkoSolar's product offerings [11].