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节后需求恢复缓慢,光伏玻璃新产线投产放缓
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 07:17
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - After the National Day holiday, the demand for photovoltaic glass did not recover rapidly, and the recovery of the demand side was slow. The inventory of photovoltaic glass manufacturers increased significantly compared with that before the holiday, and the industry may face high - inventory pressure again. Although the profitability of the photovoltaic glass industry improved slightly due to the weakening cost side, the short - term price is expected to be stable, but there is a possibility of price cuts later [1][2][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Photovoltaic Glass Weekly Outlook - **Supply**: The commissioning rhythm of new photovoltaic glass production lines has slowed down. Originally, 4 - 5 production lines were expected to be commissioned in the fourth quarter, but now only two companies may still commission as planned, and this plan may change due to the off - season in November and December [7] - **Demand**: After the National Day holiday, the demand recovery was slow. Component manufacturers had high inventory and aimed to digest it, with less new procurement. They also had a price - pressing expectation, which led to incomplete release of market demand and increased the shipping pressure on photovoltaic glass enterprises [7] - **Inventory**: The inventory of photovoltaic glass manufacturers increased significantly compared with that before the holiday, and the industry may face high - inventory pressure again as market expectations turn pessimistic [7] - **Cost and Profit**: Due to the weakening cost side, the profitability of the photovoltaic glass industry improved slightly after the holiday, with a current industry gross margin of about 3.27% [7] - **Price**: The current mentality of photovoltaic glass manufacturers has shifted from price - increasing to price - stabilizing and shipping. Short - term prices are expected to be stable, but there may be price cuts later [7] 2. Domestic Photovoltaic Glass Industry Chain Data 2.1 Photovoltaic Glass Spot Price - As of October 11, the mainstream price of domestic 2.0mm coated (panel) photovoltaic glass was 13 yuan per square meter, and the 3.2mm coated mainstream price was 21 yuan per square meter, both unchanged from before the holiday [8] 2.2 Supply - side - The commissioning rhythm of new production lines has slowed down. Only two companies may still commission as planned, and the plan may change in the off - season [12] - A table shows the changes in domestic photovoltaic glass production lines since 2025, including cold - repair and ignition information of different companies in various regions [19] 2.3 Demand - side - After the National Day holiday, the demand recovery was slow. Component manufacturers had high inventory and a price - pressing expectation, which led to incomplete release of market demand and increased shipping pressure on enterprises [20] 2.4 Inventory - side - The inventory of photovoltaic glass manufacturers increased significantly compared with that before the holiday, and the industry may face high - inventory pressure again as market expectations turn pessimistic [23] 2.5 Cost - profit side - Due to the weakening cost side, the profitability of the photovoltaic glass industry improved slightly after the holiday, with a current industry gross margin of about 3.27% [26] 2.6 Trade - side - From January to August 2025, China's photovoltaic glass export volume increased by 16.5% compared with the same period in 2024. The export side remains prosperous, and overseas installation demand is strong [32]
厂家库存降幅持续收窄,短期光伏玻璃价格稳定为主
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 12:28
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The current production and sales of photovoltaic glass are basically balanced, the decline in manufacturers' inventory continues to narrow, and the short - term price of photovoltaic glass is expected to remain stable [3][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Photovoltaic Glass Weekly Outlook - **Supply**: Last week, the industry supply increased slightly. A single kiln resumed production, with the in - production capacity increasing by 200 tons per day. Currently, the in - production capacity is 88,780 tons per day, and the capacity utilization rate is 68.52%, which is still at a low level. Supply is expected to remain stable next week [7][12]. - **Demand**: Recently, the domestic demand for photovoltaic glass has been positive. Some orders placed in August were not shipped, and there are remaining orders to be delivered in September, creating a short - term supply - demand imbalance. However, downstream orders are mostly placed, and production and sales are basically balanced. After the "stockpiling wave" of component manufacturers, downstream purchases are mainly based on rigid demand [7][21]. - **Inventory**: The overall decline in photovoltaic glass manufacturers' inventory continued to narrow last week. The decline was due to the uncertainty of component export tax - refund policies and high downstream component production schedules. As the "stockpiling wave" ends, the decline in inventory will further narrow, and the inventory is expected to change little this week [7][23]. - **Cost - profit**: The photovoltaic glass industry has turned a profit, and the profitability improved last week. The current industry gross profit margin is about 2.6% [7][27]. 3.2 Domestic Photovoltaic Glass Industry Chain Data Overview - **Spot Price**: As of September 12, the mainstream price of 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass was 13 yuan per square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated was 21 yuan per square meter, both unchanged from last week. The market transactions were smooth, and some second - and third - tier component manufacturers were still rushing to buy [8]. - **Supply**: The in - production capacity increased by 200 tons per day last week. The current in - production capacity is 88,780 tons per day, and the capacity utilization rate is 68.52%, remaining at a low level. Supply is expected to be stable next week [12]. - **Demand**: The demand has been positive recently. Some August orders were not shipped, and there are September remaining orders. But downstream orders are mostly placed, and production and sales are balanced. After the "stockpiling wave", downstream purchases are based on rigid demand [21]. - **Inventory**: The decline in manufacturers' inventory continued to narrow last week. The reasons for the previous decline were the uncertainty of export tax - refund policies and high component production schedules. As the "stockpiling wave" ends, the inventory decline will narrow, and the inventory is expected to change little this week [23]. - **Cost - profit**: The industry has turned a profit, and the profitability improved last week. The current gross profit margin is about 2.6% [27]. - **Trade**: From January to July 2025, China's photovoltaic glass exports increased by 13.8% compared with the same period in 2024. The export market remains prosperous, and overseas installation demand is strong [33].