光伏行业需求刺激政策

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组件囤货仍在持续,光伏玻璃厂库降至低位
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 07:51
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The current low inventory in the photovoltaic glass industry provides good support for price increases [8][3]. - With the increase in photovoltaic glass prices, the industry's profit has recently rebounded [2][28]. - After the implementation of the policy to cancel the export tax - rebate for components, there is a significant risk of a sharp decline in the shipment of photovoltaic glass manufacturers [8][22]. Summary by Directory 1. Photovoltaic Glass Weekly Outlook - **Supply**: Last week, the industry's supply remained stable with no changes in blocked - kiln capacity. Recently, some enterprises have resumed kiln production due to downstream increased inventory - building influenced by the component export tax - rebate cancellation policy and the market's September price - increase news [8][12]. - **Demand**: Affected by the component export tax - rebate cancellation policy and the September price - increase news, downstream inventory - building continues. However, due to the lack of substantial improvement in terminal power stations, there is a risk of a sharp decline in the shipment of photovoltaic glass manufacturers after the policy implementation [8][22]. - **Inventory**: Downstream inventory - building has led to a continuous decline in the inventory of many photovoltaic glass manufacturers, and the inventory of some enterprises is less than a week [8][25]. 2. Overview of the Domestic Photovoltaic Glass Industry Chain Data 2.1 Photovoltaic Glass Spot Price - As of August 22, the mainstream price of 2.0mm coated (panel) photovoltaic glass in China was 11 yuan/square meter, flat compared with last week; the mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass was 18 yuan/square meter, also flat compared with last week. In August, the price was mainly driven by industry internal meetings, and the price - support efforts of glass groups were effective [9]. 2.2 Supply - side - The industry's supply remained stable last week with no changes in blocked - kiln capacity. Some enterprises resumed kiln production due to downstream increased inventory - building influenced by the component export tax - rebate cancellation policy and the market's September price - increase news [12]. 2.3 Demand - side - Affected by the component export tax - rebate cancellation policy and the September price - increase news, downstream inventory - building continues. There is a risk of a sharp decline in the shipment of photovoltaic glass manufacturers after the policy implementation due to the lack of substantial improvement in terminal power stations [22]. 2.4 Inventory - side - Downstream inventory - building has led to a continuous decline in the inventory of many photovoltaic glass manufacturers, and the inventory of some enterprises is less than a week [25]. 2.5 Cost - profit side - With the increase in photovoltaic glass prices, the industry's profit has recently rebounded [28]. 2.6 Trade - side - From January to June 2025, China's photovoltaic glass export volume increased by 9.7% compared with the same period in 2024 [34].
短期囤货需求刺激下,光伏玻璃供给有所回升
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 03:21
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the demand for stockpiling has stimulated an increase in the supply of photovoltaic glass. The industry's production and sales are currently favorable, with full orders and an expected price increase. However, after the implementation of the policy to cancel the export tax rebate for components, there is a risk of a significant weakening in the shipments of photovoltaic glass manufacturers [1][8]. - As the price of photovoltaic glass rises, the industry's profits have continued to recover recently [2][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Photovoltaic Glass Weekly Outlook - **Supply**: Last week, some photovoltaic glass enterprises resumed kiln production. The main reasons were that downstream component manufacturers increased their stockpiling due to the policy of canceling the export tax rebate for components, and the market released news of a price increase in September, prompting some component enterprises that missed the stockpiling opportunity at the end of July to actively build up inventories [1][8][12]. - **Demand**: The actual demand from the component side is mainly for stockpiling, and there has been no substantial improvement in terminal power stations. After the implementation of the policy to cancel the export tax rebate for components, there is a risk of a significant weakening in the shipments of photovoltaic glass manufacturers [1][8][22]. - **Inventory**: Affected by the possible cancellation of the export tax rebate for downstream components, many component manufacturers are increasing production in the short term, driving up the consumption of photovoltaic glass and narrowing the supply - demand gap. The industry's inventory has declined for multiple consecutive weeks, and the current actual inventory is within a normal range, with no inventory pressure on manufacturers [1][8][25]. - **Cost - Profit**: As the price of photovoltaic glass rises, the industry's profits have continued to recover recently [2][8][28]. 2. Overview of the Domestic Photovoltaic Glass Industry Chain Data 2.1 Photovoltaic Glass Spot Price - As of August 15, the mainstream price of 2.0mm coated (panel) photovoltaic glass in China was 11 yuan per square meter, unchanged from the previous week; the mainstream price of 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass was 18 yuan per square meter, also unchanged from the previous week. In August, the price of photovoltaic glass was mainly driven by an industry internal meeting, and the price - support measures of glass groups were effective [1][8][9]. 2.2 Supply - Side - Last week, some photovoltaic glass enterprises resumed kiln production. The main reasons were that downstream component manufacturers increased their stockpiling due to the policy of canceling the export tax rebate for components, and the market released news of a price increase in September, prompting some component enterprises that missed the stockpiling opportunity at the end of July to actively build up inventories [1][8][12]. 2.3 Demand - Side - The actual demand from the component side is mainly for stockpiling, and there has been no substantial improvement in terminal power stations. After the implementation of the policy to cancel the export tax rebate for components, there is a risk of a significant weakening in the shipments of photovoltaic glass manufacturers [1][8][22]. 2.4 Inventory - Side - Affected by the possible cancellation of the export tax rebate for downstream components, many component manufacturers are increasing production in the short term, driving up the consumption of photovoltaic glass and narrowing the supply - demand gap. The industry's inventory has declined for multiple consecutive weeks, and the current actual inventory is within a normal range, with no inventory pressure on manufacturers [1][8][25]. 2.5 Cost - Profit - Side - As the price of photovoltaic glass rises, the industry's profits have continued to recover recently [2][8][28]. 2.6 Trade - Side - From January to June 2025, China's photovoltaic glass exports increased by 9.7% compared with the same period in 2024 [34].