Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [6][17]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a bottoming out, with improvements anticipated in the second half of 2025. The revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 are projected to be 14.796 billion and 4.344 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 35.32% and 45.34% [1]. - The company is actively adjusting its operational pace in response to market conditions, focusing on strengthening channels such as banquets and emphasizing inventory metrics. Despite short-term pressure on revenue and profit, the company is expected to benefit from its strategic initiatives and product offerings [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company's liquor revenue is expected to be 14.513 billion yuan, down 35.47% year-on-year, with total sales volume decreasing by 32.35% to 78,200 tons. The average price per ton is projected to decline by 4.50% to 185,400 yuan [1]. - The company's revenue from high-end and ordinary liquor is forecasted to be 12.672 billion and 1.841 billion yuan, respectively, with ordinary liquor's share increasing by 1.44 percentage points to 12.68% [1]. - The company anticipates a significant decline in revenue from both domestic and foreign markets, with domestic revenue expected to drop by 25.79% and foreign revenue by 42.68% in the first half of 2025 [2]. - The average revenue per distributor has decreased by 33.72% to 1.6836 million yuan, with the total number of distributors declining by 224 to 8,609 [2]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 20.778 billion, 21.393 billion, and 22.445 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -28%, +3%, and +5% respectively. Net profit forecasts for the same period are 4.250 billion, 4.590 billion, and 4.895 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -36%, +8%, and +7% [4]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 25X, 23X, and 22X [4]. Key Financial Metrics - The company reported a total revenue of 33.126 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected decline to 28.876 billion yuan in 2024 and further to 20.778 billion yuan in 2025 [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 10.016 billion yuan in 2023 to 6.673 billion yuan in 2024, and to 4.250 billion yuan in 2025 [5]. - The company's EBITDA is projected to decline from 13.425 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.855 billion yuan in 2025 [5].