公司报告 | 半年报点评 五粮液（000858） 证券研究报告 Q2 收入端表现稳健，费投加大利润季度承压 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。 2025H1 公司营业收入/归母净利润分别为 527.71/194.92 亿元（同比 +4.19%/+2.28%）对应 2025Q2：2025Q2 公司营业收入/归母净利润分别为 158.31/46.32 亿元（同比+0.10%/-7.58%）。 渠道端：25H1 经销/直销 渠道收 入分别 279.25/211.95 亿元（同比 +1.20%/+8.60%），毛利率分别 78.70%/86.80%（同比-1.00/+0.13pct），其中 直销占比提升 1.72pct 至 43.15%。五粮液经销商数量 2510 家，同比减少 20 家，单商规模+5.41%；其他酒经销商数量 1077 家，同比增加 127 家， 单商规模-9.38%。25H1 公司前五大客户销售收入合计 300.61 亿元（同比 +180.58%），占销售收入总额的 56.96%（同比+35.84pcts）。 量增驱动酒类业务增长，吨价阶段承压。 费投加大利润短期承压，业绩蓄水池仍较充足。 ...

公司报告 | 半年报点评 泸州老窖（000568） 证券研究报告 25H1 业绩平稳，期待低度新品打造新增长极 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。 2025H1 营收 164.54 亿元，同比-2.67%；归母净利润 76.63 亿元，同比-4.54%； 2025Q2 营收 71.02 亿元，同比-7.97%；归母净利润 30.70 亿元，同比-11.10%； 营收+Δ合同负债 75.71 亿元，同比+0.63%。 25H1 特曲持续增长稳住营收基本盘，下半年 28°国窖或推出贡献增量。 25H1 酒类 收入 163.97 亿 元 （同 比-2.62%）， 销 量/ 吨 价 分别 同比 +2.09%/-4.62%，具体看： ① 产品端，中高档酒 / 其他酒收入 150.48/13.50 亿元（同比 -1.09%/-16.96% ）。 量 价 角 度 ， 中 高 档 酒 类 销 量 / 吨价分别同比 +13.33%/-12.72%，其他酒类销量/吨价分别-6.89%/-10.82%。25H2 公司或推 出 28°国窖新品，低度新品有望成为新增长极，此外，公司拟推出"二曲" 新品巩固大众价位布局。 ② 渠道 ...

公司报告 | 半年报点评 舍得酒业（600702） 证券研究报告 普通酒高增贡献增长，静待拐点来临 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。 2025H1 公司营业 收 入/ 归母 净利 润 分别为 27.01/4.43 亿 元（ 同比 -17.41%/-24.98%）。2025Q2 公司营业收入/归母净利润分别为 11.25/0.97 亿 元（同比-3.44%/+139.48%）。 沱牌结构优化成效突出，次高端需求偏弱中高档酒仍承压。25Q2 公司酒 类业务营收 9.76 亿元（同比-4.52%）。 分产品 来看， 中高 档酒/ 普通酒 营收 分别为 7.39/2.37 亿元 （同比 -15.65%/+62.25%），中高档酒下滑预计主要系 Q2"禁酒令"影响之下次高 端价位需求承压明显；普通酒增长突出主要系：①24Q2 低基数；②T68 等 升级单品延续 Q1 以来放量势能。 分渠道看，批发/电商营收分别为 8.45/1.31 亿元（同比-7.80%/+23.83%） ; 分区域看，省内/省外营收分别为 2.89/6.86 亿元（同比-21.20%/+4.84%）。 产品结构下行毛利率阶段略承压，费用率下 ...

公司报告 | 半年报点评 山西汾酒（600809） 证券研究报告 调整期韧性凸显，全国化势能延续 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。 2025H1 公司营业收入/归母净利润分别为 239.64/85.05 亿元（同比 +5.35%/+1.13%）；2025Q2 公司营业收入/归母净利润分别为 74.41/18.57 亿 元（同比+0.45%/-13.50%）。 25Q2 省外贡献增长点，其他酒持续优化调整。 ① 价位增速：25Q2 酒类收入 73.95 亿元（同比+0.44%），其中汾酒/其他 酒类收入分别为 71.79/2.16 亿元（同比+0.56%/-3.54%）。行业调整期汾酒 品牌 Q2 逆势微增彰显韧性。 ② 市 场 ： 25Q2 省 内 / 省 外 收 入 分 别 为 26.49/47.46 亿 元 （ 同 比 -5.29%/+3.95%），其中省外收入占比同比+2.17pct 至 64.18%；公司经销商 数量同比-202 家至 3994 家，单商规模同比+5.52%。 ③渠道：25Q2 代理/直销（含团购、电商）收入分别为 68.96/4.99 亿元（同 比+0.26%/+3.00%） ...

公司报告 | 半年报点评 水井坊（600779） 证券研究报告 行业调整期阶段承压，静待需求回暖 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。 2025H1 公司营业 收 入/ 归母 净利 润 分别为 14.98/1.05 亿 元（ 同比 -12.84%/-56.52%）；2025Q2 公司营业收入/归母净利润分别为 5.39/-0.85 亿 元（同比-31.37%/-251.25%）。 中档酒低基数下高增，行业深度调整期产品结构阶段性承压。 2025Q2 公司白酒业务收入 4.92 亿元（同比-33.76%），量价拆分来看，25Q2 公司白酒销量为 1726.01 千升（同比+8.56%），对应吨价为 28.49 万元/千升 （同比-38.98%）。其中：高档/中档产品营业收入分别为 4.54/0.38 亿元（同 比-36.96%/+67.68%），高档白酒营收占比 92.26%，占比同比下降 4.68pcts。 全球化成效逐步显现，线上渠道增长突出。 2025Q2 国内/外收入分别为 4.70/0.22 亿元（同比-35.18%/+24.66%），其中 国内/国外收入占比分别为 95.53%/4.47%，国外 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 561 million yuan and net profit at 9 million yuan, representing year-on-year decreases of 43.54% and 92.60% respectively [1] - The company is facing ongoing pressure from mid-range liquor channel reforms, but there is an expectation for a turning point with the launch of new products in the second half of 2025 [1] - The company has initiated a marketing transformation and launched a "mine-sweeping" campaign to refine its channel management and strengthen its core market [2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company's liquor business revenue was 558 million yuan, down 43.65% year-on-year, with total sales volume decreasing by 34.25% to 2,905 tons [1] - The gross margin for the liquor business was 68.73%, a decrease of 4.64 percentage points year-on-year, while the sales expense ratio and management expense ratio increased significantly [2] - The company has revised its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 1.19 billion yuan, 1.26 billion yuan, and 1.36 billion yuan, and net profits of 90 million yuan, 140 million yuan, and 180 million yuan respectively [3] Regional Revenue Contribution - Revenue contributions from different regions showed significant declines, with North China, East China, and South China experiencing year-on-year decreases of 39.62%, 45.69%, and 41.22% respectively [2] - The company reported a notable increase in overseas revenue, which grew by 156.07% year-on-year [2] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.28 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 227.33 [4] - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately 21.04 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 324.93 million shares [6]

Group 1 - Global Printing announced that shareholder Hong Kong Yuanshi International Co., Ltd. plans to reduce its stake by up to 3.2004 million shares, accounting for 1% of the total share capital, due to personal funding needs [1] - Sunflower intends to acquire 100% equity of Xi Pu Materials and 40% equity of Zhejiang Beid Pharmaceutical through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, with stock resuming trading on September 22, 2025 [1][2] - Crown Zhong Ecology is planning a change in control, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock and convertible bonds due to significant uncertainties [2] Group 2 - China Oil Engineering's wholly-owned subsidiary signed a $513 million EPC contract for an LNG pipeline project in the UAE, covering approximately 180.5 kilometers of natural gas pipeline with a 36-month construction period [3] - Shanxi Fenjiu announced that shareholder Huachuang Xinrui (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. plans to reduce its stake by up to 16.2006 million shares, representing no more than 1.33% of the total share capital [4] - Brother Technology's subsidiary received a drug registration certificate for Iopamidol injection, which is included in the national medical insurance catalog [5] Group 3 - Lin Yang Energy is expected to win a bid for a metering equipment project from the State Grid, with an estimated total bid amount of approximately 142 million yuan [6] - Huahai Chengke received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for issuing shares and convertible bonds to purchase assets and raise no more than 800 million yuan in matching funds [8] - Jindi Co. signed a framework agreement to acquire controlling interest in Unico Precision, which specializes in manufacturing gears and automotive parts [10] Group 4 - Ruifeng High Materials announced that its major shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 2.4 million shares, accounting for 0.9584% of the total share capital [12] - Changliang Technology's director plans to reduce his stake by 1.05 million shares, representing 0.129% of the total share capital [14] - Zhongjing Food's director plans to reduce his stake by up to 150,000 shares, accounting for 0.10% of the total share capital [16] Group 5 - Haitai Technology announced that two shareholders plan to reduce their stakes by a total of up to 2.53% of the total share capital [18] - Zhenlei Technology's chairman is under detention but the company states that control has not changed and operations remain normal [20] - Huakang Co. plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.2 yuan per share, totaling approximately 60.61 million yuan [19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price maintained [6][17]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a release of pressure due to a slowdown, with a continued logic for net profit margin improvement [4]. - The company is positioned as a leading brand in the Anhui liquor market, with a solid domestic foundation, and is preparing for a strong performance in the upcoming peak season [4]. Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 4.734 billion, 1.332 billion, and 1.315 billion yuan respectively, showing year-on-year declines of 14.23%, 11.63%, and 11.81% [1]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q2 2025 were 80.24% and 29.33%, reflecting a decrease of 0.26 and an increase of 1.19 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, the revenue from year-on-year raw liquor, Gujing Gongjiu, and Huanghelou was 10.959 billion, 1.184 billion, and 1.497 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +1.59%, -4.39%, and +6.68% [2]. - The average price per ton for year-on-year raw liquor, Gujing Gongjiu, and Huanghelou was 235,200, 60,300, and 98,400 yuan/ton, showing year-on-year declines of 8.31%, 12.49%, and 4.84% [2]. Market and Channel Insights - In H1 2025, the revenue from North China, Central China, and South China was 8.09 billion, 12.297 billion, and 7.68 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -27.04%, +3.60%, and -5.84% respectively, indicating a solid performance in Central China [3]. - The number of distributors in North China, Central China, and South China increased by 90, 161, and 25 to 1,378, 3,009, and 655 respectively, with average distributor scale changes of -31.80%, -1.94%, and -9.43% [3]. Cost and Cash Flow Analysis - The sales expense ratio decreased year-on-year by 1.86 percentage points to 22.78%, attributed to improved cost efficiency due to scale effects [4]. - The operating cash flow for Q2 2025 was 2.309 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 48.45% [4]. Profit Forecast - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits attributable to the parent to be 5.620 billion, 6.002 billion, and 6.810 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 6.299 billion, 7.207 billion, and 8.104 billion yuan [4].

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月12日 泸州老窖（000568.SZ） 2025 年核心经销客户会议召开，传递发展信心 |  公司研究·公司快评 | | |  | 食品饮料·白酒Ⅱ |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 张向伟 | | | zhangxiangwei@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523090001 | | 证券分析师： | 张未艾 | 021-61761031 | | zhangweiai@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525070005 | 事项： 事件：2025 年 9 月 8 日，泸州老窖 2025 年核心经销客户会议在天津召开，会议以"全面转型·客户共赢， 坚定推进数字化营销"为主题，对目前白酒行业的机遇与挑战、未来消费趋势等进行了分析和研判；展望 未来，明晰战略发展方向，传递出携手经销商战略共赢的信心。 国信食饮观点：公司组织管理禀赋突出，营销数智化转型至今成效逐步显现，当前国窖批价表现较为稳定， 渠道考核机制优化下经销商利润得到改善 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wuliangye is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 52.77 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.50 billion yuan, up 2.28% year-on-year. Q2 revenue was 15.83 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 7.6% year-on-year to 4.63 billion yuan [4][5] - The company aims to control volume and maintain prices in the second half of the year, focusing on increasing investment in lower-priced products to capture market share from competitors. The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 32.03 billion, 32.86 billion, and 34.38 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 0.5%, 2.6%, and 4.6% respectively [4][5] - The company has committed to a cash dividend policy, ensuring that the total cash dividends for the years 2024-2026 will not be less than 70% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, with a total dividend amount of no less than 20 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend yield of 4% [4] Financial Summary - In H1 2025, Wuliangye's product revenue was 41.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with sales volume and price per ton increasing by 12.8% and decreasing by 7.3% respectively. Other liquor products generated revenue of 8.12 billion yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year [5][6] - As of the end of Q2 2025, the contract liability balance was 10.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.92 billion yuan, while cash receipts increased by 12.03% year-on-year to 31.23 billion yuan [6] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 74.69%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a significant drop in product prices. The net profit margin for Q2 was 29.26%, down 2.43 percentage points year-on-year [7][11] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Wuliangye from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 83.27 billion, 89.18 billion, 91.45 billion, 94.17 billion, and 98.26 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.6%, 7.1%, 2.5%, 3.0%, and 4.3% respectively [8][11] - The projected net profit for the same period is 30.21 billion, 31.85 billion, 32.03 billion, 32.86 billion, and 34.38 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 13.2%, 5.4%, 0.5%, 2.6%, and 4.6% [8][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 7.78, 8.21, 8.25, 8.47, and 8.86 yuan from 2023 to 2027, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16.5, 15.7, 15.6, 15.2, and 14.5 respectively [8][11]