Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of a scientific quantitative system in navigating the unpredictable financial world, advocating for a macro strategy that acknowledges the inability to predict macro risks while effectively managing asset allocation through a self-developed macro scenario probability model [1][2] Group 1: Macro Strategy Development - Lianhai Asset has developed a systematic macro strategy that adapts to China's major asset classes, achieving a high Sharpe ratio and low drawdown, thus creating a strategy that can traverse economic cycles [1] - The macro strategy incorporates a risk parity approach influenced by Bridgewater's all-weather strategy, categorizing assets into four major classes: recovery, overheating, stagflation, and recession, with typical and atypical states for each [1][2] Group 2: Local Adaptation of Strategies - Lianhai Asset has localized the all-weather strategy by deeply dissecting risk factors, moving beyond traditional volatility measures to analyze the sources of volatility in domestic assets [2] - The firm redefines structured samples using macro scenario probabilities instead of expected differences, allowing for a more dynamic asset allocation based on current economic conditions [2] - The strategy prioritizes drawdown control, emphasizing maximum drawdown as a critical optimization factor alongside the Sharpe ratio, aiming to enhance the investment experience across different cycles [2] Group 3: Current Macro Environment - The current macro environment in China is characterized as atypical, with weak consumer demand despite strong production, leading to unclear profit-making logic across stocks, bonds, and commodities [3] - The macro strategy has gained prominence, with notable performances from both Bridgewater and local private equity managers, highlighting Lianhai Asset's early commitment to macro strategies and its team of experts from top institutions [3][4] Group 4: Challenges in Macro Strategy - Lianhai Asset faces three main challenges in implementing macro strategies in China: the significant impact of policy variables on economic laws, data quality limitations affecting modeling accuracy, and the misalignment of domestic and global macro cycles [5][6] - The market share of macro strategies in China is currently low at around 2%, indicating substantial growth potential as the domestic market matures and beta returns become more prominent [6]