格隆汇8月27日｜中信证券发文称，最近的市场很热，从4月开启的慢牛之势非常丝滑，最近更有加速之 势，信心在汇聚，赚钱效应也在叠加。当下，很多人每天的心情就拴在了指数的起伏上。本不应该如 此，因为投资的意义是为了给生活更多选择性的底气加持，投资可以调剂生活，但绝不能定义生活，本 末倒置。 面对投资，每个人都应该明确投资的意义，制定合理的投资规划，构建应对不同市场环境的 投资框架，从而保持对于市场波动的定力。不被市场抽走灵魂，在实战层面上，可行的做法就是抓住大 势。这是我们近期反复强调的事情。 对于牛市请记住以下几点：1)牛市会改变赚钱的概率，但不会改 变你赚钱的能力，你还是你。如果你觉得自己突然变强了，那多半是牛市幻觉。2)普通人能抓到的牛市 红利是贝塔收益(趋势)，不是阿尔法(差异选股)，指数投资比投个股更实际些。3)牛市是正确投资理念 的验证器，不是扰动器。享受权益资产在牛市中上涨的红利，保持多元资产配置的纪律性，才是长久之 策。4)对于踏空不必过多纠缠，就像告别一段感情一样。向前看，做出些改变，更重要。 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Beijing Stock Exchange (北交所) Industry Overview - The Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) is positioned to serve innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, particularly focusing on "specialized, refined, unique, and innovative" small giants, creating differentiated competition with the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1][8][10]. Key Points and Arguments - **Investment Framework**: The BSE emphasizes high scarcity, high growth, and high dividends, aiming to uncover alpha (active return opportunities) and beta (elasticity-driven opportunities) [3][5]. - **Market Performance**: In the first half of 2025, the BSE outperformed A-shares with significant price increases, reflecting market confidence despite high valuations [1][7][25]. - **Liquidity Improvement**: The liquidity of the BSE has significantly improved, with turnover rates surpassing those of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the ChiNext, attracting more quality companies to list [1][9][15]. - **Geographical Distribution**: Companies listed on the BSE are widely distributed across regions, with a notable presence in Jiangsu and Guangdong, and are concentrated in sectors such as machinery, new energy, chemicals, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and pharmaceuticals [1][12][13]. - **New Stock Performance**: The average first-day gain for new stocks in 2025 reached 329%, indicating a strong profit-making effect for investors [1][17][19]. Additional Important Insights - **Unique Advantages**: The BSE has unique advantages, including a 30% price fluctuation limit, a significant amount of capital (nearly 700 billion) allocated for new stock subscriptions, and a high proportion (about 60%) of specialized small giants among its listed companies [5][6][22]. - **Future Prospects**: The BSE is expected to continue attracting quality companies and institutional investors, with significant growth potential in allocation space compared to other exchanges [2][28]. - **Investment Focus**: Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with high growth potential, scarcity, and strong competitive advantages, particularly in emerging industries [19][30][31]. - **Sectoral Opportunities**: Key sectors for investment include high-end equipment manufacturing, new energy, chemicals, TMT, and pharmaceuticals, with a growing emphasis on AI and innovative consumption [13][32][37]. Conclusion - The BSE is positioned as a vital platform for innovative enterprises, contributing to China's economic transformation by providing financing opportunities for emerging industries and offering diverse investment options for investors [10][37].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the successful integration of quantitative and active investment strategies by Ye Shuai at GF Fund, highlighting the dual benefits of capturing beta and alpha returns through a systematic approach to investment [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Ye Shuai combines scientific quantitative methods with deep research to form a core investment philosophy centered on "scientific quantitative active investment" [2]. - The "active + quantitative" approach leverages subjective investment advantages in deep research and forward-looking predictions while utilizing quantitative models for initial stock screening [2][4]. - The investment strategy focuses on small-cap stocks with a strong beta return potential, aiming to select stocks with a solid valuation margin and predictable growth [4][5]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The GF Big Data Strategy Growth Fund, managed by Ye Shuai, has shown impressive performance, with the A share rising 29.97% over the past year, ranking in the top 20 among similar flexible allocation funds [3]. - Over three years, the fund ranks in the top 10 of its category and has received a three-year five-star rating from Galaxy Securities [3]. Group 3: Research and Analysis Framework - The investment process involves a combination of top-down active research and bottom-up quantitative output, focusing on macroeconomic variables to guide overall portfolio management [4][6]. - The team employs a multi-layered stock selection strategy, emphasizing safety margins and growth potential through a systematic evaluation of candidates based on historical valuation and expected changes [5][6]. Group 4: Platform and Team Support - GF Fund's robust platform and team collaboration are crucial for the sustained excess returns of Ye Shuai's products, supported by a comprehensive research resource network [6]. - The stable strategy department consists of nine research members dedicated to systematic investment methods, ensuring disciplined execution of investment decisions based on objective data [6]. Group 5: AI Integration - The stable strategy team has incorporated AI stock selection technology, utilizing self-developed neural network architectures to extract potential alpha information from structured and unstructured data [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the unexpected strong performance of actively managed funds in the first half of 2025, outperforming passive funds by nearly 5 percentage points, suggesting a resurgence in the credibility of active fund managers [3][5]. Group 1: Performance of Active Funds - In the first half of 2025, 50 actively managed funds achieved net value returns exceeding 30%, with the top ten funds all surpassing 60% gains, outperforming the best-performing passive ETF, which had a return of 58.76% [12][14]. - Among the top-performing active funds, Guangfa Fund led with 9 funds, followed by Penghua, Changcheng, Huitianfu, and Fuguo, each with 6 funds [14][15]. Group 2: Opportunities in Emerging Markets - The article identifies the Beijing Stock Exchange (北交所) as a "golden opportunity" for active funds, where less transparent information and lower research coverage allow for better identification of mispriced opportunities, thus creating alpha (excess returns) [16][18]. - The North Star 50 Index, a benchmark for the Beijing Stock Exchange, has seen a year-to-date increase of over 30%, significantly outperforming the Zhongzheng 2000 index [18][21]. Group 3: Value of Active Management - The true value of active management lies in the ability to dynamically search for undervalued opportunities across the entire market, rather than being confined to specific industries or styles, which is a key advantage over passive investment strategies [22][24]. - The article emphasizes that while passive funds are effective for obtaining market average returns (beta), allocating a portion of investments to capable active fund managers can yield excess returns (alpha) [25][26].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of a scientific quantitative system in navigating the unpredictable financial world, advocating for a macro strategy that acknowledges the inability to predict macro risks while effectively managing asset allocation through a self-developed macro scenario probability model [1][2] Group 1: Macro Strategy Development - Lianhai Asset has developed a systematic macro strategy that adapts to China's major asset classes, achieving a high Sharpe ratio and low drawdown, thus creating a strategy that can traverse economic cycles [1] - The macro strategy incorporates a risk parity approach influenced by Bridgewater's all-weather strategy, categorizing assets into four major classes: recovery, overheating, stagflation, and recession, with typical and atypical states for each [1][2] Group 2: Local Adaptation of Strategies - Lianhai Asset has localized the all-weather strategy by deeply dissecting risk factors, moving beyond traditional volatility measures to analyze the sources of volatility in domestic assets [2] - The firm redefines structured samples using macro scenario probabilities instead of expected differences, allowing for a more dynamic asset allocation based on current economic conditions [2] - The strategy prioritizes drawdown control, emphasizing maximum drawdown as a critical optimization factor alongside the Sharpe ratio, aiming to enhance the investment experience across different cycles [2] Group 3: Current Macro Environment - The current macro environment in China is characterized as atypical, with weak consumer demand despite strong production, leading to unclear profit-making logic across stocks, bonds, and commodities [3] - The macro strategy has gained prominence, with notable performances from both Bridgewater and local private equity managers, highlighting Lianhai Asset's early commitment to macro strategies and its team of experts from top institutions [3][4] Group 4: Challenges in Macro Strategy - Lianhai Asset faces three main challenges in implementing macro strategies in China: the significant impact of policy variables on economic laws, data quality limitations affecting modeling accuracy, and the misalignment of domestic and global macro cycles [5][6] - The market share of macro strategies in China is currently low at around 2%, indicating substantial growth potential as the domestic market matures and beta returns become more prominent [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of not only beta returns but also alpha returns in achieving superior performance in dividend-themed funds, highlighting the exceptional performance of the Zhongtai Dividend Preferred Fund [2][3]. Performance Summary - Since its establishment on March 24, 2022, the Zhongtai Dividend Preferred Fund has achieved a net value growth rate of 36.85%, significantly outperforming its benchmark growth rate of 7.02%, resulting in an excess return of 29.83% [2][3]. - The fund's performance is compared to various indices, showing a substantial advantage over the CSI Dividend Index (5.10%) and the CSI Dividend Total Return Index (23.98%) [3]. Investment Philosophy - The fund manager, Wang Tao, asserts that high short-term dividends do not guarantee long-term returns, emphasizing the need for both long-term and immediate high dividends in dividend investment [5]. - Companies that can provide long-term high dividends typically exhibit strong profitability and a willingness to distribute dividends, with preferred sectors including banks, utilities, and mature manufacturing industries [6]. Active Management Strategy - The key to constructing an actively managed alpha strategy lies in thorough research and selection of investment targets that fit the dividend investment framework, aiming to buy at "value" prices [7]. - The fund's current holdings reflect a higher allocation to bank stocks compared to the CSI Dividend Index, while coal stocks have been reduced due to declining internal rates of return [8]. Market Outlook - Wang Tao expresses caution regarding the crowded nature of dividend investment strategies, noting that rising stock prices can lead to declining internal rates of return, but adjustments to the portfolio are made accordingly [9]. - The ideal dividend-focused fund should have high internal rates of return and quality holdings with sufficient safety margins, ultimately delivering long-term returns to investors [10].

Group 1: AI and Innovative Drug Sectors Performance - The A-share AI sector and Hong Kong innovative drug sector experienced significant gains during the first week of June, with several stocks like Zai Lab rising over 25% and others like CSPC Pharmaceutical and Innovent Biologics increasing over 10% [2][3] - Over 1,000 non-cash ETFs saw gains, with AI-themed ETFs from Huabao, Southern, Guotai, and Huaxia rising over 6% [2] - The recent concerns regarding AI computing power investment excess have eased, leading to a potential recovery in overall industry valuation levels [2] Group 2: Bond ETF Growth - As of June 6, the total scale of 29 bond ETFs surpassed 300 billion yuan, with an increase of over 130 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [6][7] - The development of bond ETFs has accelerated significantly, with the first bond ETF launched in March 2013 and the total scale reaching 1 trillion yuan in May 2024, 2 trillion yuan in February 2025, and now 3 trillion yuan [7] - The shift towards beta return management due to decreasing alpha returns has made bond index funds and passive investment products increasingly important [7][8] Group 3: Fund Flows and Market Dynamics - The 信创 (Xinchuang) theme ETFs attracted significant capital inflows, with a total net inflow of over 4.5 billion yuan last week, driven by the suspension of major weighted stocks [4][5] - Conversely, the recently surging Hong Kong medical-themed ETFs experienced notable capital outflows, with over 600 million yuan net outflow last week [5] - The market dynamics indicate a high trading congestion level in the innovative drug sector, which may lead to increased volatility [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the innovative strategies employed by Xingyin Wealth Management to adapt to the changing landscape of wealth management, particularly in response to declining bank wealth management yields. It emphasizes the importance of multi-asset investment strategies and a systematic approach to asset allocation to meet the investment goals of clients [1]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy and Client Needs - Clients of wealth management products typically have low risk tolerance and seek to preserve wealth while achieving returns that outpace deposit rates and inflation. They also require liquidity [3]. - Xingyin Wealth Management's innovation team offers various product lines, including options + wealth management products, quantitative + wealth management products, and multi-asset + wealth management products, all aimed at enhancing returns while ensuring absolute returns [3]. Strategic Asset Allocation - Unlike traditional bank wealth management, Xingyin Wealth Management retains control over key asset allocation during product design, which is crucial for achieving desired returns [5]. - The first layer of asset allocation focuses on low correlation among assets, including bonds, stocks, gold, and quantitative neutral strategies [6]. - The second layer emphasizes market neutrality and macro neutrality, allowing the asset combination to adapt to various market conditions [7]. Industrialized Production Model - Xingyin Wealth Management employs an industrialized production model for multi-asset investment, where each strategy functions as a component that is assembled through top-level asset allocation and undergoes regular quality checks [9]. - This approach enables the management of a wider range of assets while minimizing the amplification of individual investment styles [9]. Product Lines and Innovations - The options + wealth management products provide a defined risk and potential upside, ensuring a basic return even in extreme market conditions [12]. - The quantitative + wealth management products utilize quantitative signals for asset timing and alpha stock selection, aiming for a more uniform return distribution compared to traditional public funds [12][14]. - The multi-asset + wealth management products represent a new product form that focuses on strategic asset allocation, adapting to changing market environments while providing clear return expectations [16]. Tactical Asset Allocation - Tactical asset allocation adjustments are informed by a historical database that tracks asset performance during various market conditions, allowing for proactive risk management [19]. - The strategy includes avoiding significant drawdowns during high inflation and capitalizing on assets with favorable valuations [19]. Team Structure and Strategy Development - The investment team is structured to ensure dual-driven strategies, where each manager has relevant investment experience and can manage both proprietary accounts and outsourced strategies [28]. - The team has developed approximately 15 main strategies, each with sub-strategies, ensuring a comprehensive approach to asset management [27]. Conclusion - Xingyin Wealth Management's systematic and industrialized approach to multi-asset investment, combined with a focus on strategic and tactical asset allocation, positions it well to meet the evolving needs of clients in a challenging investment environment [33].

Group 1 - The article discusses the disparity between the performance of the Japanese stock market and the A-share market, highlighting that despite China's higher GDP growth, the A-share market has not seen similar gains as Japan's stock market, which has risen by 70% over the past five years [1] - It emphasizes that GDP growth does not directly correlate with stock market performance, as nominal GDP growth, which includes price increases, is a more relevant metric [2] - The article points out that while China's nominal GDP growth is 4.23%, the profits of A-share companies are declining, with a projected decrease of 2.3% for all A-shares and a significant drop of 12.9% for non-financial companies [4] Group 2 - The article explains that Japanese companies benefit from a higher percentage of overseas revenue, which contributes to their profit growth, while only 16% of Chinese companies' revenue comes from abroad [5] - It discusses the concept of beta and alpha in investment, noting that A-shares have low beta returns but relatively easier alpha opportunities due to the presence of many retail investors [6][7] - The article identifies several reasons for the challenges in the A-share market, including high retail investor participation, high initial public offering prices, low dividend payouts, and the impact of small businesses on overall market performance [11][12][16][17] Group 3 - The article suggests that if the factors affecting A-shares change, such as increased dividends and improved financing environments, the market could become more attractive [18] - It contrasts the volatility of the A-share market with the more stable performance of the Japanese market, which has a higher win rate for investors [20] - The article concludes that while A-shares present significant alpha opportunities for skilled investors, the overall investment environment remains challenging for average retail investors [23][24]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 这几年，虽然A股和海外市场，涨跌走势有区别。但有一点是共通的：指数基金都得到了飞速 发展。 A股指数基金，在2024年，规模超过三万亿，创下历史新高。 在2024年前几个月时间里，规模就增长了几千亿。这几乎是A股指数基金诞生前十年的规模增长之 和。 海外指数基金的增长速度也非常快，并没有停下脚步。 有朋友问，指数基金在海外最早是怎么发展起来的呢？ 从海外指数基金的发展历程中，能否窥见一些A股指数基金的发展趋势呢？ 美股指数基金的发展历程，大体上可以分为三个阶段。 阶段一：理论奠基期 第一个阶段，是20世纪初-60年代，理论基础阶段。 这个阶段，很多经济学领域的著名学者，提出的重要理论，为指数基金的诞生奠定了理论基 础。 例如， • 巴舍利耶，提出了市场涨跌不可预测。 • 马科维茨，提出了分散配置，可以降低波动风险。 • 威廉·夏普，提出了阿尔法、贝塔收益，并构建了资本资产定价模型。 • 尤金·法马，提出了市场有效假说，并且日后又丰富了自己的观点，证明有策略可以获得超越 市场的收益。 系统学习过金融知识的朋友，对这些理论可能都比较熟悉了。 这些理论提出者的名字，也经常出现 ...