文/李浩 21世纪资管研究院特约研究员 在全面搭建权益资产投研体系的模式下，理财公司可完全自主掌握权益投资能力，实现对投资标的的直 接把控，是长期参与权益市场的理想模式。不可否认，该路径下的权益投研体系建设投入大、周期长。 不仅需要大量的人力与资源支持，还需经过多个牛熊周期的市场检验与机制磨合，才能确保体系运行稳 定有效。目前完全符合该模式的理财公司并不多。 路径二是通过委托投资参与权益市场。理财公司根据客户定位和产品属性，确定风险预算与权益敞口； 再遴选优质外部管理人，结合约束条件与管理人共同设计定制化权益投资方案；最终通过专户委托的形 式开展投资。专户委托是银行理财参与权益市场最早、也是最传统的方式，其优势在于，理财公司可以 有效利用优秀外部管理人在策略、行业和个股方面的专业能力与投资经验，弥补自身的投研短板；围绕 赚取阿尔法收益实施公募基金无法覆盖的定制化策略；可以避免其他资金进出对于账户管理和净值的干 扰。 在专户委托的模式下，理财公司所需具备的主要能力是选对管理人、做好投后跟踪与管理，不需要在搭 建权益投研体系方面全面投入。不足之处在于，投后管理与沟通的成本较高；专户的灵活性有限，委托 人资金进出和 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has entered a bull market since September 24, 2024, with major indices significantly rising, such as the North Exchange 50 Index increasing by 158.01% [1] - The average daily trading volume in the market surged from less than 500 billion to over 2 trillion [1] - 13 mutual funds have seen a net value growth rate exceeding 200%, while 774 funds have surpassed 100% [1][2] Group 2 - The performance of equity mixed funds has rebounded, with the index rising by 57.88% since September 24, 2024 [2] - Notable funds include Debon Xinxing Value Mixed Fund, which achieved a net value growth of 280.31% [2] - The strong performance is attributed to the robust market rally and the significant returns from technology stocks [2] Group 3 - Key factors driving the market's rise include ongoing stock market reforms, improved policy expectations, and breakthroughs in various sectors such as innovative drugs and robotics [3] - The market's risk appetite has notably increased, with more retail investors entering the market since June [6][7] Group 4 - The A-share market has shown significant improvement in valuation, liquidity, and investor structure, with the overall valuation rising from 15.63 times to 22.16 times [6] - The market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" trend, supported by continuous policy backing and structural upgrades in industries [7] Group 5 - Investment opportunities are seen in sectors like AI, innovative drugs, and electric new energy, driven by supportive industrial policies and technological breakthroughs [8][9] - The focus on sectors such as AI computing, electric new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals is expected to yield significant returns [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The "9·24" market rally has marked a significant turning point for the A-share market, leading to a bull market characterized by substantial index gains and a resurgence in public fund performance [2][12]. Market Performance - Since the "9·24" rally began, the North Securities 50 Index has risen by 158.01%, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index and the ChiNext Index have both more than doubled, increasing by 118.85% and 103.50% respectively [2]. - The average daily trading volume in the market surged from less than 500 billion to over 2 trillion [2][12]. Fund Performance - A total of 13 funds have achieved a net value growth rate exceeding 200%, and 774 funds have surpassed 100% growth since the rally began [2][5]. - The Wind data indicates that the mixed equity fund index has increased by 57.88% since September 24, 2024 [4]. Key Fund Performers - The top-performing fund, Debon Xinxing Value Mixed Fund, recorded a net value growth of 280.31% [5][6]. - Other notable funds with over 200% growth include China Europe Digital Economy Fund (266.27%) and CITIC Construction Investment North Exchange Selection Fund (263.38%) [5][6]. Market Drivers - The market's significant rise is attributed to three main factors: ongoing stock market reforms, improved policy expectations, and milestone events in various sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals and robotics [7]. - The core drivers of the A-share market's rise include supportive policies, rapid breakthroughs in technology industries, and a notable increase in market risk appetite [7][12]. Structural Market Changes - The A-share market has seen substantial improvements in valuation, liquidity, and investor structure since the "9·24" rally [12]. - The average valuation (PE-TTM) of the Wind All A Index has risen from 15.63 times to 22.16 times [12]. Future Outlook - The "9·24" rally is viewed as a critical turning point, with expectations for a sustained "slow bull" market trend supported by continuous policy support and structural upgrades in industries [13]. - Investment opportunities are anticipated in sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and electric power, driven by industry policy support and technological breakthroughs [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - Despite the focus on large tech stocks and AI-related companies, traditional oil refining companies have seen significant gains, with their performance nearly matching that of leading AI infrastructure firms like Nvidia and Broadcom [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major refining companies such as Valero Energy Corp and Marathon Petroleum Corp have seen stock price increases of at least 30% this year, outperforming approximately 90% of S&P 500 constituents, including tech giants like Microsoft and Apple [2]. - Smaller refining firms like Par Pacific Holdings Inc. and CVR Energy Inc. have experienced even stronger stock performance, with Par Pacific's stock doubling and CVR Energy's stock rising by 83% year-to-date [2]. Group 2: Profitability Factors - The profitability of global refining companies has significantly increased due to falling crude oil prices and stable gasoline prices, leading to expanded profit margins [3]. - The market anticipates further declines in Brent crude oil prices, which could enhance the earnings outlook for refineries and catalyze additional stock price increases [1][9]. Group 3: Energy Sector Dynamics - The weight of energy stocks, including oil and gas, in the S&P 500 index has been steadily declining, currently accounting for less than 3% [6]. - The so-called "Magnificent Seven" tech giants dominate the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices, comprising about 35% of their market weight, while also benefiting from the AI boom [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that as oil prices decline, it is typical to sell large oil company stocks and buy refining stocks, which may have a "scarcity value" due to the limited number of new facilities being built [11]. - The recent proposal to exempt small refineries from renewable fuel standards could serve as a tailwind for the sector, contributing to stock price increases for mid-sized refiners [11]. - Factors such as attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, low diesel inventories, and unprecedented electricity demand from AI data centers create a unique bullish outlook for the refining sector over the next 6-12 months [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "paradigm shift" in investment, highlighting the evolution of investment strategies and the importance of adapting to new methodologies for achieving stable returns [2][3]. Investment Paradigms - Investment can be categorized into three types of returns: Beta return (market return), Alpha return (returns from individual judgment and selection), and Gamma return (returns from capturing random fluctuations) [2]. - The article suggests that Gamma returns may be more reliable and sustainable compared to Alpha returns, which are often riskier [2]. Examples of Paradigm Shifts - The article provides examples of paradigm shifts in various fields, including the transition from traditional blood analysis to modern pathology, and the shift from geocentric to heliocentric models in astronomy [1]. - In investment, the use of high-speed trading and algorithmic trading represents a significant shift, demonstrating that human judgment can often be inferior to data-driven approaches [2]. Investment Strategies - The article emphasizes the importance of diversifying investments and focusing on funds that exhibit characteristics of Beta, Alpha, and Gamma returns [7]. - It suggests that investors should consider funds that are consistently performing well and are diversified, such as low-volatility ETFs and small-cap funds [7]. - The article also mentions the potential for profit-taking to enhance personal satisfaction and reinforce positive investment behavior [7]. Market Behavior - The article notes that investors should not be overly concerned with market fluctuations, as Beta returns are uniform across the market [4]. - It advocates for a strategy of maintaining a fully invested position to minimize timing risks associated with market movements [4]. Conclusion - The article concludes that adopting a mindset of leveraging others' strengths and focusing on systematic investment approaches can lead to more successful outcomes in the long run [8].

Group 1 - The market has been experiencing a smooth bull trend since April, with recent acceleration and increasing confidence among investors [1] - Investment should enhance life choices rather than define them, emphasizing the importance of a rational investment plan and framework to cope with market fluctuations [1] - Key points to remember about bull markets include: 1) Bull markets change the probability of making money but do not enhance individual investment abilities [1] 2) Ordinary investors benefit from beta returns rather than alpha, making index investing more practical than stock picking [1] 3) Bull markets validate correct investment philosophies rather than disrupt them, highlighting the importance of maintaining diversified asset allocation [1] 4) It is unnecessary to dwell on missed opportunities; focus on future changes instead [1]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Beijing Stock Exchange (北交所) Industry Overview - The Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) is positioned to serve innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, particularly focusing on "specialized, refined, unique, and innovative" small giants, creating differentiated competition with the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1][8][10]. Key Points and Arguments - **Investment Framework**: The BSE emphasizes high scarcity, high growth, and high dividends, aiming to uncover alpha (active return opportunities) and beta (elasticity-driven opportunities) [3][5]. - **Market Performance**: In the first half of 2025, the BSE outperformed A-shares with significant price increases, reflecting market confidence despite high valuations [1][7][25]. - **Liquidity Improvement**: The liquidity of the BSE has significantly improved, with turnover rates surpassing those of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the ChiNext, attracting more quality companies to list [1][9][15]. - **Geographical Distribution**: Companies listed on the BSE are widely distributed across regions, with a notable presence in Jiangsu and Guangdong, and are concentrated in sectors such as machinery, new energy, chemicals, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and pharmaceuticals [1][12][13]. - **New Stock Performance**: The average first-day gain for new stocks in 2025 reached 329%, indicating a strong profit-making effect for investors [1][17][19]. Additional Important Insights - **Unique Advantages**: The BSE has unique advantages, including a 30% price fluctuation limit, a significant amount of capital (nearly 700 billion) allocated for new stock subscriptions, and a high proportion (about 60%) of specialized small giants among its listed companies [5][6][22]. - **Future Prospects**: The BSE is expected to continue attracting quality companies and institutional investors, with significant growth potential in allocation space compared to other exchanges [2][28]. - **Investment Focus**: Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with high growth potential, scarcity, and strong competitive advantages, particularly in emerging industries [19][30][31]. - **Sectoral Opportunities**: Key sectors for investment include high-end equipment manufacturing, new energy, chemicals, TMT, and pharmaceuticals, with a growing emphasis on AI and innovative consumption [13][32][37]. Conclusion - The BSE is positioned as a vital platform for innovative enterprises, contributing to China's economic transformation by providing financing opportunities for emerging industries and offering diverse investment options for investors [10][37].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the successful integration of quantitative and active investment strategies by Ye Shuai at GF Fund, highlighting the dual benefits of capturing beta and alpha returns through a systematic approach to investment [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Ye Shuai combines scientific quantitative methods with deep research to form a core investment philosophy centered on "scientific quantitative active investment" [2]. - The "active + quantitative" approach leverages subjective investment advantages in deep research and forward-looking predictions while utilizing quantitative models for initial stock screening [2][4]. - The investment strategy focuses on small-cap stocks with a strong beta return potential, aiming to select stocks with a solid valuation margin and predictable growth [4][5]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The GF Big Data Strategy Growth Fund, managed by Ye Shuai, has shown impressive performance, with the A share rising 29.97% over the past year, ranking in the top 20 among similar flexible allocation funds [3]. - Over three years, the fund ranks in the top 10 of its category and has received a three-year five-star rating from Galaxy Securities [3]. Group 3: Research and Analysis Framework - The investment process involves a combination of top-down active research and bottom-up quantitative output, focusing on macroeconomic variables to guide overall portfolio management [4][6]. - The team employs a multi-layered stock selection strategy, emphasizing safety margins and growth potential through a systematic evaluation of candidates based on historical valuation and expected changes [5][6]. Group 4: Platform and Team Support - GF Fund's robust platform and team collaboration are crucial for the sustained excess returns of Ye Shuai's products, supported by a comprehensive research resource network [6]. - The stable strategy department consists of nine research members dedicated to systematic investment methods, ensuring disciplined execution of investment decisions based on objective data [6]. Group 5: AI Integration - The stable strategy team has incorporated AI stock selection technology, utilizing self-developed neural network architectures to extract potential alpha information from structured and unstructured data [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the unexpected strong performance of actively managed funds in the first half of 2025, outperforming passive funds by nearly 5 percentage points, suggesting a resurgence in the credibility of active fund managers [3][5]. Group 1: Performance of Active Funds - In the first half of 2025, 50 actively managed funds achieved net value returns exceeding 30%, with the top ten funds all surpassing 60% gains, outperforming the best-performing passive ETF, which had a return of 58.76% [12][14]. - Among the top-performing active funds, Guangfa Fund led with 9 funds, followed by Penghua, Changcheng, Huitianfu, and Fuguo, each with 6 funds [14][15]. Group 2: Opportunities in Emerging Markets - The article identifies the Beijing Stock Exchange (北交所) as a "golden opportunity" for active funds, where less transparent information and lower research coverage allow for better identification of mispriced opportunities, thus creating alpha (excess returns) [16][18]. - The North Star 50 Index, a benchmark for the Beijing Stock Exchange, has seen a year-to-date increase of over 30%, significantly outperforming the Zhongzheng 2000 index [18][21]. Group 3: Value of Active Management - The true value of active management lies in the ability to dynamically search for undervalued opportunities across the entire market, rather than being confined to specific industries or styles, which is a key advantage over passive investment strategies [22][24]. - The article emphasizes that while passive funds are effective for obtaining market average returns (beta), allocating a portion of investments to capable active fund managers can yield excess returns (alpha) [25][26].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of a scientific quantitative system in navigating the unpredictable financial world, advocating for a macro strategy that acknowledges the inability to predict macro risks while effectively managing asset allocation through a self-developed macro scenario probability model [1][2] Group 1: Macro Strategy Development - Lianhai Asset has developed a systematic macro strategy that adapts to China's major asset classes, achieving a high Sharpe ratio and low drawdown, thus creating a strategy that can traverse economic cycles [1] - The macro strategy incorporates a risk parity approach influenced by Bridgewater's all-weather strategy, categorizing assets into four major classes: recovery, overheating, stagflation, and recession, with typical and atypical states for each [1][2] Group 2: Local Adaptation of Strategies - Lianhai Asset has localized the all-weather strategy by deeply dissecting risk factors, moving beyond traditional volatility measures to analyze the sources of volatility in domestic assets [2] - The firm redefines structured samples using macro scenario probabilities instead of expected differences, allowing for a more dynamic asset allocation based on current economic conditions [2] - The strategy prioritizes drawdown control, emphasizing maximum drawdown as a critical optimization factor alongside the Sharpe ratio, aiming to enhance the investment experience across different cycles [2] Group 3: Current Macro Environment - The current macro environment in China is characterized as atypical, with weak consumer demand despite strong production, leading to unclear profit-making logic across stocks, bonds, and commodities [3] - The macro strategy has gained prominence, with notable performances from both Bridgewater and local private equity managers, highlighting Lianhai Asset's early commitment to macro strategies and its team of experts from top institutions [3][4] Group 4: Challenges in Macro Strategy - Lianhai Asset faces three main challenges in implementing macro strategies in China: the significant impact of policy variables on economic laws, data quality limitations affecting modeling accuracy, and the misalignment of domestic and global macro cycles [5][6] - The market share of macro strategies in China is currently low at around 2%, indicating substantial growth potential as the domestic market matures and beta returns become more prominent [6]