小结： 2025年公募翻倍基金核心赛道收益特征清单 1. 高景气贯穿全年，贝塔收益确定性强 科技、有色金属、商业航天为三大核心主线，全年行情无明显断层，为基金布局提供稳定的收益基础，是80只翻倍基金的 共通持仓方向。 2025年度公募基金收益率排行榜揭晓，主动权益基金凭借亮眼表现成为市场绝对焦点。根据choice数据整理，全年翻倍基 金数量达到80只，批量牛基的涌现，本质是A股结构性行情红利、核心赛道爆发与基金管理人专业能力深度共振的结果。 回顾过去的一年，A股市场为权益投资提供了优良土壤，主要股指全年录得亮眼涨幅：沪指收涨18.41%，创10年新高并实 现11连阳；深成指累计上涨29.87%，创业板指涨幅更是高达49.57%，成长风格资产迎来强势上涨周期。更关键的是，市场 呈现出清晰的结构性主线，科技、有色金属及商业航天等板块贯穿全年行情，其中AI产业链作为核心主轴，从算力基础设 施到应用端持续爆发，光模块、PCB、服务器等细分领域龙头股涨幅显著，为基金净值增长提供了强劲动力。这种高景气 赛道的集中爆发，形成了明确的贝塔收益基础，成为翻倍基金批量涌现的核心沃土。 | | | 125年主动权益基金收益TOP: ...

近几年市场热议"基金赚钱，基民不赚钱"，周向勇认为，主要是因为主动权益基金虽然收益不弱，但是 波动性太强。公募基金行业强化业绩比较基准的约束作用，有助于让投资回归本源，让投资者更加清晰 地了解产品，"所见即所得"，保障公募基金投资有准则。 并且，周向勇表示，科学设定基准能够更有效地连接中国资本市场与经济基本面，让投资者分享中国经 济增长的红利。当中国最广大的个人投资者拥有的以储蓄为代表的资金能够真正意义上沉淀下来，转化 为实实在在的长期资本，这将成为中国经济新一轮高质量发展的"助推器"。 12月30日，由中国证券报主办的"改革与重构——2025公募基金高质量发展大会暨第二十二届基金业金 牛奖颁奖典礼"在上海市虹口区举行，国泰基金党委书记、董事长周向勇在圆桌环节表示，公募基金行 业高质量发展强调从"重规模"转向"重回报"，本质上是资产管理机构回归"受人之托，代客理财"的本 源。公募基金行业应做好盈利性和功能性的平衡，尤其要将功能性放在首位，即为投资者创造价值、提 供应有的获得感，并且推动资本市场服务国家战略。 随着中国经济持续增长，周向勇认为，中国的资本市场以及各类资管产品容量将有长足的发展空间。一 方面，当主 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for global markets, suggesting that investors should maintain stock allocations while diversifying to hedge against high valuation risks [6][13]. Core Insights - Global stock markets are experiencing broad gains, with the Spanish market up nearly 70% in USD terms, indicating a significant geographical and sectoral expansion in market performance [1][2]. - The current high valuation levels, particularly in the US market with a P/E ratio exceeding 22, suggest that future returns will primarily stem from earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [3][4]. - Earnings growth expectations for 2026 are optimistic, with the US projected to achieve a 12% increase in earnings, driven by margin improvements and the growth of the technology sector [5][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report highlights that 2025 has seen a more diversified market performance, with technology and AI sectors standing out, and for the first time since the financial crisis, most major stock markets have outperformed the US [2][8]. - The geographical breadth of market performance is expanding, with value stocks in Europe outperforming the market while US growth stocks regain dominance [3][10]. Earnings Growth Expectations - The report anticipates strong earnings growth across regions in 2026, with the US expected to benefit from margin improvements and a robust technology sector [5][7]. - European markets, despite current profit weaknesses, are expected to improve as the euro strengthens against the dollar and energy sector impacts diminish [5]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios to mitigate high valuation risks while maintaining stock allocations, as global markets are catching up to the US, presenting new opportunities [6][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of diversification across geography, factors, and sectors to optimize risk-adjusted returns, especially in light of the concentration risk posed by a few leading companies in the US market [12][13].

□本报记者王鹤静 在国内公募基金高质量发展强调业绩比较基准约束作用的背景下，受被动化投资浪潮的影响，公募主动 权益投资来到了变革的关键节点，不少公募机构将目光投向了聚焦优质赛道且定位清晰的主题产品，通 过搭建主题产品矩阵，致力于在众多细分贝塔之上进一步获取阿尔法收益。 尤其是得益于今年以科技成长为代表的结构化行情，这些"卡位"布局细分新兴产业的主题产品实现了收 益与规模的"双丰收"。于是，在主动投资方面搭建主题产品矩阵的策略开始在业内蔓延开来，多家中小 公募机构纷纷撒网布局。业内机构表示，由于中小公募机构在权益投资上面临规模、人才、品牌等方面 的劣势，通过明确战略定位、聚焦细分领域、发挥灵活高效的组织优势，并且持续打造主动管理能力与 客户信任，仍有潜在空间实现"弯道超车"。 "卡位"布局实现规模增长 在今年以科技成长主题为代表的结构性行情下，部分机构前瞻性地在科技细分赛道精准布局了多只"卡 位"的主题产品，取得了显著收益，并且成功实现了规模增长，典型代表就是永赢基金旗下的"智选"系 列产品。 在主动投资方面打造主题产品矩阵，折射出公募机构为满足投资者需求所做出的积极转变。 以平安基金为例，记者了解到，为进一步 ...

展望2026年，中国银河证券认为：重要会议将扩大内需放在重点工作首位，并且提出"制定实施城乡居民增收计划"、"扩大优质商品和服务供给"，看好人均 收入改善与内需复苏对食品饮料整体带来的贝塔修复，同时新消费（更加优质的商品与服务）有望贡献阿尔法。 上周末，茅台最新控量消息传开后，茅台批价开始回升，连续两日累计上涨近100元。截至12月14日，25年飞天茅台批价已从1495元，回升至接近1600元。 12月12日，贵州茅台股价已经在1400元/股附近企稳反弹。 具体到白酒行业，若动销与批价跌幅收窄，则逐渐步入筑底阶段，参考上一轮白酒调整周期的筑底阶段，在低估值背景下，流动性改善有望推动估值小幅修 复。 据悉，茅台各省区经销商联谊会近日召开会议，讨论明年经销渠道战略：2026年或将聚焦茅台1935、飞天茅台、精品茅台三大核心单品；茅台生肖酒、公斤 茅台等非标茅台产品或将减量；对于未完成的2025年计划外的茅台配额停止投放，以期稳定市场。 中国银河证券最新发表食品饮料行业分析认为：12月以来，食品饮料指数有所回调，主要原因为月度动销数据环比略有放缓，系中秋错期导致节奏略有波 动。板块内部来看，11月调整较多的啤酒、调 ...

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a slight decline, influenced by the December meeting and restrictions on fund dividends, leading to fluctuations in interest rates [5] - The central bank conducted a 793 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 2,133 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,340 billion yuan [3] - The interbank funding market shows a balanced and slightly loose condition, with the DR001 around 1.30% and DR007 around 1.44% [3] Group 2 - The yield on long-term bonds is rising, while short-term bonds remain stable, indicating a divergence in market sentiment [6] - The central bank's announcement of a 500 billion yuan bond purchase in November was smaller than expected, contributing to a stable sentiment in the bond market [5] - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated slightly, opening at 1.8325% and reaching a high of 1.8425% before settling at 1.8375% [5][9]

Core Viewpoint - The market environment since the fourth quarter has favored flexible active equity funds, with several funds like Taixin Development Theme showing strong performance compared to passive index products [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Active equity funds have seen a resurgence in popularity, with the number of stock and mixed funds reported since November surpassing that of index products [1] - The well-known active equity fund manager, Ruiyuan Fund, has launched public offerings for the first time this year [1] Group 2: Performance and Strategy - Active equity funds are better positioned to capture opportunities in a structurally differentiated market, allowing for the creation of alpha returns that exceed index performance [1] - The previous rapid growth and issuance of passive equity products have led fund managers to balance their offerings by introducing more active equity products [1]

Core Viewpoint - The active equity funds are regaining popularity in the fourth quarter, outperforming passive index products due to their flexibility in capturing sector opportunities and generating alpha returns [1][2][4]. Group 1: Performance of Active Equity Funds - Since the beginning of the fourth quarter, active equity funds have shown significant performance, with some funds like 泰信发展主题 and 泰信现代服务业 achieving returns over 30% [2]. - As of November 18, several active funds reported returns exceeding 13%, with specific funds like 德邦乐享生活A and 银河核心优势A also performing well [2]. - The 泰信发展主题 fund had a strong focus on sectors such as lithium mining and solid-state batteries, with its major holdings seeing stock prices double in the fourth quarter [2]. Group 2: New Product Launches - There has been a surge in new product registrations for active equity funds, with 54 new stock and mixed funds reported in November, surpassing the number of index fund registrations [2][3]. - Notable fund managers like 睿远基金 and 泉果基金 have launched new public offerings, indicating a shift towards active management strategies [3]. Group 3: Strategic Positioning of Funds - The industry is witnessing a strategic shift where fund managers are balancing their offerings between active and passive products, with a focus on capturing opportunities aligned with national strategies [4][6]. - 平安基金 has categorized its active equity products into four series to enhance product positioning and ensure stable investment strategies [5]. - The emphasis is on identifying sector opportunities that align with national policies, particularly in technology and advanced manufacturing [5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The rise of passive investment has created a competitive environment, prompting active funds to redefine their strategies to focus on stock selection for generating excess returns [6][7]. - Fund managers are adapting their strategies based on market conditions, with some focusing on beta exposure to capture industry trends, while others emphasize deep fundamental analysis for alpha generation [7]. - Companies like 国泰基金 and 平安基金 are committed to developing a dual-driven product system that integrates both active and passive strategies to meet diverse investor needs [7].

Core Viewpoint - The active equity funds are regaining popularity in the current market environment, outperforming passive index products, particularly in the fourth quarter of the year [1][2]. Active Equity Fund Performance - Since the beginning of the fourth quarter, active equity funds have shown significant performance advantages, with funds like 泰信发展主题 and 泰信现代服务业 achieving returns over 30% [2]. - The 泰信发展主题 fund has heavily invested in sectors such as lithium mining and solid-state batteries, with key holdings like 天华新能 and 盛新锂能 seeing stock prices double [2]. Fund Reporting Trends - There has been a surge in new active equity fund registrations, with 54 new stock and mixed funds reported in November, surpassing the number of index fund registrations [2][3]. - Major fund companies like 平安基金 and 广发基金 have reported multiple new stock and mixed funds in the fourth quarter [2]. Strategic Positioning of Funds - Fund companies are refining their product lines to ensure stability in investment strategies, categorizing active equity products into four series: full market stock selection, thematic tracks, index enhancement, and absolute return [4]. - The focus is on capturing opportunities aligned with national strategies, particularly in technology and advanced manufacturing sectors [4]. Market Dynamics and Investment Strategies - The market is experiencing a structural shift, with active funds able to adapt more flexibly to changing market conditions compared to passive products [4][5]. - Fund managers are encouraged to balance between beta (market trend) and alpha (excess returns) strategies, depending on their investment style and market conditions [5][6]. Future Outlook - The regulatory environment is expected to favor active equity products that can consistently generate excess returns, as indicated by recent guidelines [5]. - Companies like 国泰基金 and 平安基金 are committed to developing a dual-driven product system that integrates both active and passive strategies to meet diverse investor needs [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent market environment characterized by high volatility has provided a platform for flexible active equity funds to outperform passive index products, indicating a resurgence in the popularity of active equity funds [1][2][4]. Group 1: Performance of Active Equity Funds - Since the beginning of the fourth quarter, active equity funds have shown significant performance advantages, with some funds achieving returns exceeding 30%, such as the Taixin Development Theme Fund and Taixin Modern Service Fund [2]. - The Taixin Development Theme Fund has heavily invested in sectors like lithium mining and solid-state batteries, with stocks such as Tianhua Xinneng and Shengxin Lithium Energy doubling in price since the fourth quarter began [2]. Group 2: New Fund Submissions - There has been a surge in new submissions for active equity funds, with 54 new stock and mixed funds reported in November, surpassing the number of index funds for the first time this year [3]. - Major fund companies like Ping An Fund and GF Fund have submitted multiple new active products covering various themes, including emerging equipment, technology, and healthcare [3]. Group 3: Flexibility and Strategic Advantages - Active equity funds are regaining traction due to their ability to adapt to market changes and exploit alpha opportunities, as evidenced by their recent performance against passive funds [4]. - The current structural market conditions, characterized by rapid sector rotation, favor active management strategies that allow for timely adjustments in sector weightings [4][6]. Group 4: Future of Active and Passive Investment - The growth of passive investment has created a more competitive landscape, necessitating active funds to refine their strategies to maintain relevance and achieve excess returns [5]. - The market is expected to see a continued evolution where successful active funds focus on stock selection to generate alpha, while passive funds will enhance their offerings to meet diverse investor needs [5][6].