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华大九天(301269):业绩低于预期,受订单节奏影响
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 303 million yuan for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.16%, which was below market expectations due to the impact of downstream customer order timing on revenue recognition. Despite this, domestic substitution demand remains strong, and the company's EDA product capabilities are improving. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.99 million yuan, down 71.02% year-on-year, primarily due to increased sales and management expenses [6][8] - The report emphasizes the company's full-process advantages in domestic EDA and the growing demand for domestic products. The company has achieved full-process coverage in various circuit designs and is expected to accelerate the development of key tools in digital circuit design and wafer manufacturing [8] - The semiconductor industry's trend towards domestic substitution is seen as inevitable, with the company expected to continue growing through independent research and external acquisitions. The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.62 billion, 2.06 billion, and 2.65 billion yuan, with net profits of 246 million, 414 million, and 607 million yuan respectively [8][10] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve total revenue of 1.62 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 32.6%. The net profit is expected to be 246 million yuan, reflecting a significant recovery from the previous year's decline [7][10] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to remain high, around 93.3% for 2025, with a gradual increase in return on equity (ROE) from 0.2% in 2025 to 9.9% by 2027 [7][10]