惠誉评级：关税、市场和地缘政治风险对全球信用构成持续威胁。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company announced its 2025 H1 earnings forecast, which aligns with expectations, showing significant year-on-year growth in net profit and non-recurring net profit due to lean production and rising gold prices [1][2]. Financial Performance - For 2025 H1, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.55-3.05 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 84.3%-120.5%. The non-recurring net profit is also projected to be in the same range, with a year-on-year increase of 80.3%-115.6% [1]. - In Q2 2025, the net profit is anticipated to be 1.52-2.02 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 48.5%-97.3%, with non-recurring net profit expected to follow a similar trend [1]. Gold Price Trends - The average gold price for H1 2025 is projected at 723 yuan per gram, a year-on-year increase of 38.3%, while Q2 2025 is expected to see a price of 773 yuan per gram, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.2% [2]. - The upward trend in precious metal prices is expected to continue, driven by gold's attributes as a financial product, particularly its safety and liquidity in the context of global economic uncertainties [2]. Project Developments - The company has multiple ongoing projects that are expected to enhance its resource advantages and economic benefits, including the Cardino project, which is set to begin trial production in November 2024, with an expected annual gold output of 8.4 tons [2]. - Other projects, such as the Jiao Jia Mine and New Town Gold Mine, are also in development, with anticipated annual outputs of 18.854 tons and 7.77 tons, respectively [2]. Investment Outlook - The company maintains a buy rating and forecasts net profits of 6.87 billion yuan, 8.50 billion yuan, and 9.48 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 20x, 17x, and 15x [3]. - As the three major mining projects gradually come online, the company is expected to benefit significantly from the rising gold price cycle, translating resource advantages into economic benefits [3].

惠誉：贸易战和政策不确定性破坏2025年全球信用前景。 ...

基本面： 金价周二（5月20日）震荡上涨，现货黄金一度涨至3250关口附近，收报3230.07附近，受穆迪下调美国政府信用评级后，美元走软和避险需求的推动。周二 （5月20日）亚市，现货黄金则小幅走弱，目前交投于3220美元/盎司附近，跌幅约0.3%，市场憧憬特朗普和普京周一通话后将推进俄乌停火，对地缘局势的 担忧情绪有所降温，而且美联储官员讲话偏向鹰派，打压美联储年内降息预期。 但诡异的是，黄金并未因此崩盘，反而在3200美元上方保持强劲支撑。这背后的逻辑在于：当美元、美债的信用开始动摇，黄金的"终极避险"属性反而被放 大。美国债务危机是否进一步恶化？ 如果市场开始质疑美债偿付能力，黄金可能迎来更大涨幅。俄乌局势会否再生变数？ 若"停火谈判"破裂，金价可能再 冲新高。美联储是否被迫转向？ 如果经济衰退险加剧，降息预期可能重新点燃黄金牛市。 穆迪的降级、普京的博弈、美联储的困境——这三重因素正在重塑黄金市场的投资逻辑。短期来看，地缘局势的缓和可能让金价震荡，但长期而言，全球信 用体系的动摇，可能让黄金成为未来几年最硬的资产。对于投资者而言，现在的问题不是"要不要买黄金"，而是"什么时候买，买多少"。在全球经济 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the traditional framework of real interest rates has significantly influenced gold pricing over the past two decades, but this framework has failed post-2022, leading to substantial investor losses [2][15][17] - A new three-factor model for long-term gold pricing has been developed, incorporating deviations in debt-to-equity ratios, excess deficit rates, and real interest rates, indicating that current gold prices may be overvalued [4][35][36] - The report discusses the historical peaks of gold prices, attributing them to geopolitical events and economic policies, which have led to significant fluctuations in gold pricing [42][46][58] Group 2 - The report identifies signs of a loosening global credit monetary system, with the U.S. debt divergence risk indicator showing a positive correlation between U.S. bond yields and gold prices, suggesting an upward shift in gold's central tendency [21][22][24] - It notes a shift in the relationship between gold and Japanese interest rate expectations from negative to positive, indicating that Japan's monetary policy normalization is boosting gold prices [25][28] - The report raises concerns about fiscal risks in the Eurozone, particularly in France, where the debt-to-GDP ratio is nearing critical levels, leading to increased market anxiety about fiscal stability [29][31][34] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the need to explore new factors influencing gold prices post-2024, as the relationship between interest rate expectations and gold prices has shown signs of divergence [19][20] - It discusses the implications of a potential gold revaluation account in the U.S., which could alleviate debt pressure by revaluing the substantial gold reserves held by the Treasury [69]