1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For various polyester options (EG, PF, PR, PX, TA), the implied volatility of each option maintains above the average level, and the PCR of option positions is at different historical levels. It is recommended to construct a bull - spread combination strategy of call options for directional trading, and due to large geopolitical risks, strategies mainly based on selling (such as single selling and double selling) are not recommended [7][19][31][43][56] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 EG (Ethylene Glycol) - **Futures Market Data**: The closing price of the eg2605 contract yesterday was 5218 yuan, down 195 yuan or 3.60% from the previous day. The trading volume was 1007750 lots, an increase of 234532 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 274798 lots, a decrease of 21764 lots from the previous day [3][6] - **Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR**: The trading volume of call options was 90425 with a change of 15166, and the open interest was 57680 with a change of 2572. The trading volume of put options was 52591 with a change of 2618, and the open interest was 74361 with a change of - 882. The trading volume PCR was 0.58, down 0.08, and the open - interest PCR was 1.29, down 0.08 [4] - **Option Factor - Pressure and Support**: The pressure level of the EG option underlying was 5600, and the support level was 4000. The weighted implied volatility was 60.38%, down 3.45% [5] - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy: Construct a bull - spread combination strategy of call options to obtain directional returns. Volatility strategy: Due to large geopolitical risks, strategies mainly based on selling (such as single selling and double selling) are not recommended [7] 3.2 PF (Short Fiber) - **Futures Market Data**: The closing price of the PF606 contract yesterday was 8246 yuan, down 210 yuan or 2.48% from the previous day. The trading volume was 181011 lots, an increase of 5223 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 126198 lots, a decrease of 6050 lots from the previous day [15][18] - **Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR**: The trading volume of call options was 102, and the open interest was 11783. The trading volume of put options was 596, down 140, and the open interest was 18176, down 77. The trading volume PCR was 5.84, down 1.52, and the open - interest PCR was 1.54, down 0.01 [16] - **Option Factor - Pressure and Support**: The pressure level of the PF option underlying was 8400, and the support level was 6100. The weighted implied volatility was 55.04%, down 3.53% [17] - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy: Construct a bull - spread combination strategy of call options to obtain directional returns, e.g., B PF2606C8000, S PF2606C8700. Volatility strategy: Due to large geopolitical risks, strategies mainly based on selling (such as single selling and double selling) are not recommended [19] 3.3 PR (Bottle Chip) - **Futures Market Data**: The closing price of the PR605 contract yesterday was 8190 yuan, down 212 yuan or 2.52% from the previous day. The trading volume was 71483 lots, an increase of 7435 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 25436 lots, a decrease of 7104 lots from the previous day [27][30] - **Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR**: The trading volume of call options was 170, down 50, and the open interest was 3650. The trading volume of put options was 118, down 38, and the open interest was 3567, down 24. The trading volume PCR was 0.69, down 0.01, and the open - interest PCR was 0.98, down 0.01 [28] - **Option Factor - Pressure and Support**: The pressure level of the PR option underlying was 10600, and the support level was 6300. The weighted implied volatility was 65.67%, down 12.39% [29] - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy: Construct a bull - spread combination strategy of call options to obtain directional returns. Volatility strategy: Due to large geopolitical risks, strategies mainly based on selling (such as single selling and double selling) are not recommended [31] 3.4 PX (Para - Xylene) - **Futures Market Data**: The closing price of the PX605 contract yesterday was 9700 yuan, down 282 yuan or 2.82% from the previous day. The trading volume was 404063 lots, a decrease of 64463 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 145076 lots, a decrease of 17053 lots from the previous day [39][42] - **Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR**: The trading volume of call options was 13893, an increase of 3001, and the open interest was 18284, an increase of 673. The trading volume of put options was 12587, an increase of 2222, and the open interest was 20061, an increase of 2197. The trading volume PCR was 0.91, down 0.05, and the open - interest PCR was 1.1, up 0.08 [40] - **Option Factor - Pressure and Support**: The pressure level of the PX option underlying was 10400, and the support level was 8000. The weighted implied volatility was 64.24%, down 5.95% [41] - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy: Construct a bull - spread combination strategy of call options to obtain directional returns, e.g., B PX2606C9700, S PX2606C10400. Volatility strategy: Due to large geopolitical risks, strategies mainly based on selling (such as single selling and double selling) are not recommended [43] 3.5 TA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) - **Futures Market Data**: The closing price of the TA605 contract yesterday was 6684 yuan, down 202 yuan or 2.93% from the previous day. The trading volume was 1245100 lots, an increase of 37090 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 882497 lots, a decrease of 52576 lots from the previous day [52][55] - **Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR**: The trading volume of call options was 241710, down 51557, and the open interest was 220426, down 2477. The trading volume of put options was 245486, an increase of 25520, and the open interest was 273974, an increase of 9155. The trading volume PCR was 1.02, up 0.27, and the open - interest PCR was 1.24, up 0.05 [53] - **Option Factor - Pressure and Support**: The pressure level of the TA option underlying was 8500, and the support level was 5000. The weighted implied volatility was 62.83%, down 5.09% [54] - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy: Construct a bull - spread combination strategy of call options to obtain directional returns. Volatility strategy: Due to large geopolitical risks, strategies mainly based on selling (such as single selling and double selling) are not recommended [56]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oil and Fat Industry - Indonesia will implement the B50 biodiesel policy this year, increasing the palm oil blending ratio from 40% to 50%, strengthening the global vegetable oil demand in the biofuel field. Short - term BMD palm oil may still rise. In China, port palm oil inventory is at the second - highest level since 2022, with sufficient supply and weak demand, but import inversion supports the futures market. - Analysts expect the US soybean planting area in 2026 to increase to 84.7 million acres, with higher soybean inventories, which may suppress the soybean oil market. In China, the oil mill operating rate has decreased, and the soybean oil output has reduced, but the trading volume is light. - Affected by the Middle - East conflict and Indonesia's B50 policy, the Zhengzhou rapeseed oil futures mainly follow the international market and maintain a volatile adjustment pattern [1]. 2.2 Sugar Industry - The ICE raw sugar futures fell but had a monthly gain. The sugar price was dragged down by the adjustment of energy prices due to the situation in the Middle - East. Brazil has canceled the industrial product tax on diesel, and the sugar price may fluctuate with oil prices in the short term. In China, the beet sugar production is in line with expectations, and the cane sugar production exceeds expectations. The domestic sugar market has strong supply and weak demand, and the sugar price is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern [2]. 2.3 Cotton Industry - The ICE cotton futures fell due to the expected increase in the US cotton planting area in 2026. In China, the upward space of cotton prices is restricted by the external market. The "Golden March" peak season is ending, the new orders of textile enterprises have decreased significantly, and the inventory - clearing rhythm has slowed down. However, the downstream product inventory is at a low level, which supports the cotton price. Future focus should be on downstream orders, new - year planting area, and weather [3]. 2.4 Red Date Industry - The red date market is in the off - season, with weak consumption and inventory pressure. The futures warehouse receipts registration has decreased year - on - year. The market sentiment is weak, and the futures price is expected to maintain a low - level shock. Attention should be paid to the weather in the main production areas [4]. 2.5 Apple Industry - The Qingming Festival stocking was less than expected, and the apple shipment speed decreased. The performance of production areas was differentiated. The price of high - quality apples in Shaanxi was firm, while the ordinary apples in Shandong were under pressure. The market sentiment has weakened, and the short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the weather in the main production areas for the far - month contracts [5]. 2.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the northeast, the warming temperature increases the willingness of grain - holders to sell, but the limited remaining grain and the strong price - holding attitude of traders limit the decline. In North China, the price is stable as the grain - holders are reluctant to sell. The demand side has a weakening marginal demand in the north port, and the deep - processing enterprises have a low inventory and a slow procurement rhythm. The feed enterprises have rigid demand, and wheat substitution is increasing. The futures price is expected to stabilize and rebound slightly, but the policy grain supply and substitution limit the rebound space [8]. 2.7 Meal Industry - The USDA's report on the US soybean planting area was slightly lower than market expectations, and the US soybean futures rose slightly. In China, the soybean meal market has cooled down, and the spot trading volume has decreased. The overall inventory is not loose, but the market sentiment is pessimistic. The future supply pressure will increase, and soybean meal lacks effective support [10]. 2.8 Pig Industry - The pig price has shown a weak trend again. The second - fattening and end - of - month supply reduction have limited support for the price. The breeding side is still resistant, and there is no active capacity reduction. The futures price has fallen across the board, and the far - month contracts are more affected by the expected capacity pressure. The short - term price may be boosted by the second - fattening sentiment, but the high feed price and limited profit space for large pigs require further observation [12]. 2.9 Egg Industry - On the supply side, the number of old hens being culled is increasing slightly, and the overall egg supply is stable. On the demand side, the demand support weakens after the Qingming Festival stocking. The market inventory is at a certain level, and the egg price is expected to maintain a low - level shock and a weak trend [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil and Fat Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.22% to 9000 yuan, and the futures price of Y2605 decreased by 0.53% to 8668 yuan. The basis was 05 + 320, down 10 points. - Palm oil: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 1.65% to 9855 yuan, and the futures price of P2605 decreased by 0.64% to 9930 yuan. The basis was P2605 - 11, down 11 points. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.21% to 10282 yuan, and the futures price of OI605 decreased by 0.07% to 9884 yuan. The basis was OI605 + 398, down 15 points [1]. 3.1.2 Inventory and Supply - Demand - Palm oil: The inventory in Chinese ports is at a high level, and the supply is sufficient. The production in Malaysia from March 1 - 25 decreased by 11.21% month - on - month. - Soybean oil: Analysts expect the US soybean planting area to increase, and the domestic oil mill operating rate has decreased, with reduced output but light trading volume. - Rapeseed oil: Affected by the Middle - East conflict and Indonesia's policy, the market sentiment is boosted [1]. 3.2 Sugar Industry 3.2.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of sugar 2605 decreased by 0.79% to 2388 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2609 decreased by 0.66% to 5431 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price in Nanning decreased by 0.55% to 5450 yuan/ton, and the price in Kunming decreased by 0.56% to 5295 yuan/ton. The basis in Nanning increased by 33.33%, and the basis in Kunming increased by 11.21% [2]. 3.2.2 Industry Situation - The national sugar production decreased by 4.69% to 926 million tons, and the sales volume decreased by 27.39% to 345 million tons. The production in Guangxi decreased by 8.36% to 565.13 million tons, and the monthly sales volume increased by 20.16% to 162.23 million tons. The national sugar sales rate decreased by 23.72% to 37.30%, and the sales rate in Guangxi decreased by 24.60% to 35.25%. The national industrial inventory increased by 17.03% to 581 million tons [2]. 3.3 Cotton Industry 3.3.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of cotton 2605 decreased by 0.65% to 15295 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2609 decreased by 0.64% to 15430 yuan/ton. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 0.21% to 16691 yuan/ton, and the CC Index: 3128B decreased by 0.16% to 16820 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3.2 Industry Situation - The commercial inventory decreased by 100% to 0, the industrial inventory increased by 14.5% to 102.40 million tons, the import volume decreased by 19.0% to 16.65 million tons, and the bonded - area inventory increased by 9.8% to 47.10 million tons. The yarn inventory days decreased by 1.2% to 21.45 days, and the grey - cloth inventory days increased by 0.3% to 33.24 days. The textile enterprise's processing profit decreased by 1.3% to - 2255 yuan/ton [3]. 3.4 Red Date Industry 3.4.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of red date 2605 decreased by 0.28% to 8750 yuan/ton, the price of red date 2607 decreased by 0.39% to 8925 yuan/ton, and the price of red date 2609 decreased by 0.55% to 9110 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price of Cangzhou's special - grade red dates decreased by 0.22% to 9060 yuan/ton, and the price of first - grade red dates remained unchanged at 7900 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4.2 Industry Situation - The market is in the off - season, with weak consumption and inventory pressure. The futures warehouse receipts and effective forecasts decreased by 0.09% to 4400 [4]. 3.5 Apple Industry 3.5.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of apple 2605 decreased by 0.38% to 9826 yuan/ton, and the price of apple 2610 decreased by 0.23% to 8743 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price performance in different production areas is differentiated, with high - quality apples in Shaanxi being firm and ordinary apples in Shandong under pressure [5]. 3.5.2 Industry Situation - The Qingming Festival stocking was less than expected, and the apple shipment speed decreased. The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 5.69% to 441.79 million tons [5]. 3.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry 3.6.1 Price Changes - Corn: The price of corn 2605 in Jinzhou Port increased by 0.21% to 2351 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 9.38% to - 29 yuan/ton. - Corn starch: The price of corn starch 2605 increased by 0.29% to 2745 yuan, and the basis decreased by 3.96% to 218 yuan [8]. 3.6.2 Industry Situation - In the northeast, the supply and demand situation is affected by the temperature and the attitude of grain - holders. In North China, the price is stable due to the reluctance of grain - holders to sell. The demand side has different situations in different sectors [8]. 3.7 Meal Industry 3.7.1 Price Changes - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3240 yuan, and the futures price of M2605 decreased by 0.75% to 2915 yuan. The basis increased by 7.26% to 325 yuan. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.79% to 2520 yuan, and the futures price of RM2605 decreased by 0.91% to 2299 yuan. The basis increased by 0.45% to 221 yuan [10]. 3.7.2 Industry Situation - The USDA's report on the US soybean planting area affected the market. The domestic soybean meal market has cooled down, and the future supply pressure will increase [10]. 3.8 Pig Industry 3.8.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of the main contract of pigs decreased by 2.35% to 9770 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 7 spread increased by 9.43% to - 960 yuan/ton. - Spot: The prices in different regions had different changes, with the price in Shandong increasing by 50 yuan to 9900 yuan/ton [12]. 3.8.2 Industry Situation - The pig price is weak, and the capacity reduction is slow. The second - fattening sentiment may support the price, but the feed price is high [12]. 3.9 Egg Industry 3.9.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of egg 04 decreased by 2.11% to 3200 yuan/500KG, and the price of egg 05 decreased by 0.38% to 3440 yuan/500KG. - Spot: The egg price in the production area decreased by 2.72% to 3.35 yuan/jin [15]. 3.9.2 Industry Situation - The supply is stable, and the demand support weakens after the Qingming Festival stocking. The market inventory is at a certain level, and the egg price is expected to be weak [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Supply is tight in the short - term, but supply pressure will gradually appear. Demand has some support but the terminal demand lacks positive guidance. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 15,500 - 17,500, and the follow - up progress of the US - Iran conflict should be monitored [1]. Polyolefins - The supply pattern of domestic and foreign production cuts, declining import expectations, and increasing exports makes the inventory of the 05 contract of LLDPE and PP low. The core logic of "strong cost + reduced supply" dominates the pricing power. In April, the spot is expected to tighten and the basis to strengthen [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the cost support weakens, and the profit of the combined - alkali method is expected to decline. It is expected to fluctuate, and the SA605 contract is expected to be in the range of 1,150 - 1,250. For glass, the cost support weakens, and the inventory pressure exists. It is also expected to fluctuate, and the FG605 contract has limited downward space. Short positions can be held [3]. LPG - The LPG price has declined. The upstream and downstream operating rates have decreased to varying degrees. The overall LPG market is affected by factors such as geopolitical risks and inventory changes, and the price is expected to fluctuate [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term due to factors such as increased supply, inventory accumulation, and weak demand. PVC has a certain cost support, but the price may be adjusted weakly in the short - term due to factors such as weak export demand and fading chemical sentiment [5]. Urea - The urea supply has decreased slightly, and the inventory is at a relatively low level, providing bottom support for the price. However, the supply is still abundant, and the demand is in a slack period. The market lacks clear driving factors, and it is expected to continue to operate in a narrow range. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 1,830 - 1,900 [6]. Crude Oil - The main trading logic is "geopolitical support + policy suppression". In the short - term, the geopolitical risk premium has declined, and the oil price may turn to a weak - oscillation pattern. However, the supply shortage still exists, and the oil price will fluctuate between geopolitical support and policy suppression. The negotiation progress and the navigation situation in the Mandeb Strait need to be tracked [7]. Methanol - The methanol market has a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The supply is expected to increase in the long - term, while the demand is improving. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the risks of geopolitical situation changes and weakening MTO profits [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - For pure benzene, the supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to improve. It may follow the oil price fluctuations, and the EB05 - BZ05 spread can be shorted at high levels. For styrene, the supply is stable, the demand is weakening, and the profit is being compressed. It also follows the oil price fluctuations [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX has a tight supply - demand expectation in April and still has price support. PTA has limited self - driving force and follows the cost fluctuations. Ethylene glycol has cost support and is expected to go up, but there is a risk of a pull - back. Short - fiber has weak self - driving force and follows the raw material fluctuations. Bottle - chip is expected to have a tight supply - demand situation and strong processing fees in April [11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of various rubber varieties have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling. The basis of full - latex has increased [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread has decreased, the 1 - 5 spread has increased, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased significantly [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Thailand in January has increased, while that of Indonesia and India has decreased. The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires are relatively stable. The export volume of tires in February has decreased, and the import volume of natural rubber has also decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory has increased slightly, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE has decreased [1]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 have all declined. The spreads between different contracts have also changed [2]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of PE plants has decreased, while the weighted operating rate of PE downstream has increased. The operating rate of PP plants has decreased slightly, and the operating rate of PP powder has decreased significantly [2]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of PE has increased, while the social inventory has decreased. The enterprise inventory and trader inventory of PP have both decreased [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of glass in different regions are stable, and the futures prices of glass 2605 and 2609 have declined. The basis of 05 has increased [3]. - **Soda - Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of soda ash in different regions are stable, and the futures prices of soda ash 2605 and 2609 have declined. The basis of 05 has increased [3]. - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate and weekly output of soda ash have decreased, and the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass has also decreased [3]. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of glass has decreased slightly, and the factory - warehouse inventory of soda ash has decreased slightly [3]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The new - construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate have changed to different degrees, with some improving and some still in a negative growth state [3]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG futures contracts have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have also changed. The spot price in South China has decreased slightly [4]. - **External - Market Prices**: The prices of FEI and CP contracts have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling [4]. - **Inventory**: The refinery storage - capacity ratio of LPG has decreased, while the port inventory and port storage - capacity ratio have increased slightly [4]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream main - refineries has decreased, and the operating rate of downstream PDH has decreased [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling [5]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the caustic - soda and PVC industries have increased slightly, and the profits of some PVC production methods have decreased [5]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed to different degrees [5]. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of caustic soda has increased, and the upstream factory - warehouse inventory and total social inventory of PVC have decreased [5]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The futures price of urea has oscillated weakly, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [6]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite and steam - coal are stable [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizers are stable [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea has decreased slightly, the operating rate of urea production plants has decreased, and the inventory has decreased [6]. Crude Oil - **Crude - Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [7]. - **Refined - Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined - oil products such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have also changed [7]. - **Refined - Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined - oil products in different regions have decreased [7]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory of methanol have all decreased [9]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream domestic enterprises has increased, and the operating rate of downstream MTO devices has increased [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha have changed to different degrees [10]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene spot and futures have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports have decreased [10]. - **Industrial - Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the pure - benzene and styrene industrial chains have changed to different degrees [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY have changed [11]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - **Industrial - Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the polyester industrial chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream products, have changed [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global market is significantly affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, with asset prices showing high volatility. The A - share market is in an oscillating pattern, and the bond market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Different commodity prices are affected by factors such as the Middle East conflict, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors [2][3] - The end - of - war signals between the US and Iran have led to a rebound in risk appetite in the overseas market, and the prices of various metals and agricultural products have shown different trends. The price trends of different varieties are mainly affected by factors such as the geopolitical situation, supply - demand fundamentals, and cost [4][6][23] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US - Iran situation is in the stage of "fighting while negotiating, using pressure to promote negotiation". China and Pakistan call for cooling down the situation in the Middle East, and the market risk appetite has rebounded. The Nasdaq rose nearly 4%, oil prices fell about 3%, precious metals continued to recover, the US bond yield fell below 4.4%, and the US dollar index dropped to 99.7 [2] - Domestic: In March, China's official PMI rebounded overall, and the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range. However, the recovery sustainability is restricted. The A - share market is in an oscillating pattern, and the bond market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices rose sharply on Tuesday. The end - of - war signals from the US and Iran have eased market concerns, but the geopolitical signals are still changing, and the precious metal prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [4][5] 3.3 Copper - The copper price rebounded. The overall conflict situation is cooling down, the overseas risk appetite has rebounded, and the US dollar has fallen, which has boosted the metal market. The mine supply is still tight, and the refined copper production capacity expansion is restricted. The copper price is expected to continue to rebound in the short - term [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - The aluminum price remained strong. Although there are expectations of conflict mitigation in the Middle East, the conflict is still expected to continue for some time. The domestic spot consumption is recovering seasonally, and the aluminum price is expected to maintain a strong performance [8][9] 3.5 Alumina - The alumina price oscillated. The overseas alumina surplus has increased, and the domestic new - production capacity is gradually being released, putting pressure on the price. However, the cost provides support, and it is expected to oscillate within a range [10] 3.6 Cast Aluminum - The cast aluminum price is in a relatively strong operation. The cost provides support, the supply is limited, and the demand is weak and stable. It is mainly dominated by macro and cost factors and is expected to perform strongly [11] 3.7 Zinc - The zinc price had a weak rebound. The end - of - war signals between the US and Iran have led to a rebound in market sentiment. The overseas zinc mine supply is tightening, the cost support is stable, the supply and demand are both increasing, and the zinc price is expected to have a weak rebound in the short - term [12][13] 3.8 Lead - The lead price oscillated at a low level. The supply of electrolytic lead is increasing steadily, and the supply of recycled lead is decreasing. The demand recovery is weak, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is dull, and the lead price is expected to oscillate at a low level [14] 3.9 Tin - The tin price had a weak rebound. The end - of - war signals have led to a rebound in market sentiment. The tin mine supply is gradually recovering, the refined tin supply is increasing steadily, and the short - term fundamental contradiction is limited. The tin price is expected to maintain a weak rebound pattern [15] 3.10 Nickel - The nickel price oscillated narrowly. The overall conflict situation is cooling down, the overseas risk appetite has rebounded, and the US dollar has fallen, which has boosted the metal market. The cost support of high - nickel iron is strong, but the downstream demand recovery is less than expected, and the nickel price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [16][17] 3.11 Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price oscillated widely. The market sentiment has cooled down, the supply is increasing, the demand resistance to high - priced raw materials is increasing, and the inventory is at a low level. The futures market is expected to oscillate widely [18] 3.12 Steel and Iron - Steel: The steel price is expected to oscillate. The PMI has returned to the expansion range, the terminal demand is in a weak recovery, and the supply and demand situation of different varieties is different [19] - Iron Ore: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate at a high level. The overseas port inventory has decreased, the iron water production has increased, the steel mill profit has recovered, and the raw material demand is rising [20][21] 3.13 Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate. The end - of - war signals between the US and Iran have led to a decline in energy prices, which has affected the coking coal and coke prices. The upstream production is increasing steadily, the downstream demand is warming up, and the inventory is decreasing [22] 3.14 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The new - season US soybean planting area estimate is slightly lower than expected, the spill - over effect of the Middle East conflict on fertilizer and fuel prices is emerging, and the domestic soybean supply is increasing. The soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [23][24] 3.15 Palm Oil - The palm oil price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Indonesia will restart the B50 bio - diesel policy, which has greatly boosted market sentiment. The Malaysian palm oil export demand in March was good, which is conducive to inventory reduction [25][26] 3.16 Metal Trading Data - The trading data of various metals on the previous day, including contract closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest, are provided [27] 3.17 Industrial Data - The industrial data of various metals, such as inventory, spot price, and basis, on March 31 and March 30 are provided, including the comparison of data changes between the two days [28][31][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical tensions show marginal easing signals, but there is still uncertainty. The gold price is expected to be in a volatile and slightly bullish pattern, with the Au2606 contract oscillating between 980 yuan/gram and 1080 yuan/gram. The silver price is also expected to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish pattern, with the Ag2606 contract oscillating between 18,000 yuan/kilogram and 19,500 yuan/kilogram [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical tensions show easing signals. The US and Iran express willingness to end the war, but negotiations have not started yet [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On March 31, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1023.80 yuan/gram and closed at 1020.10 yuan/gram, a change of 0.51% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1040.82 yuan/gram, up 2.03% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 17,949.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 18,126.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 2.37% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 881,875 lots, and the open interest was 241,055 lots. The night session closed at 18,954 yuan/kilogram, up 4.57% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 31, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.309%, down 0.99 BP from the previous trading day. The 10-year and 2-year spread was 0.53%, a change of -0.45 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2606 contract, the long positions changed by 4,419 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by -695 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 432,534 lots, a change of -14.43% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2606 contract, the long positions changed by 4,883 lots, and the short positions changed by 6,775 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,341,387 lots, a change of -15.77% from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF position was 1,046.13 tons, down 3.43 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,274 tons, down 14 tons from the previous trading day [5] Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On March 31, 2026, the domestic gold premium was 5.66 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was 70.59 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 56.28, a change of -1.81% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 64.00, a change of -1.04% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On March 31, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 59,994 kilograms, a change of -34.18% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 345,804 kilograms, a change of 17.53% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economic recovery in Q1 is evident, with the March PMI returning to the expansion range, but there are still structural contradictions and risks from geopolitical conflicts [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term due to the weakening of the US dollar and China's economic resilience [3]. - The stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term but remains volatile due to uncertainties in the Middle East situation [5]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [6]. - The container shipping market for European routes is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [9]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic policies, and their trends vary [11][12][16][22][26][30][36][40][55][59][65] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Market Information**: In January - February, the operating income of state - owned enterprises increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 2.0%. The situation in the Middle East is tense, with the US and Iran having complex interactions. The central bank's monetary policy committee held its Q1 meeting, and Japan warned about the yen's decline. In March, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI all returned to the expansion range [1]. - **South China's Viewpoint**: China's economic recovery is certain, but there are structural problems and risks from geopolitical conflicts. The RMB exchange rate is expected to be strong due to the weakening of the US dollar and China's economic resilience. The stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term but volatile. The bond market is expected to remain volatile [2][3][5][6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.93, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 6.85 [4]. Commodities New Energy - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price of the main contract decreased by 8.40% day - on - day. The downstream enterprises maintain a strategy of replenishing inventory at low prices. In the short - term, price fluctuations are large due to macro - level factors, but the long - term demand growth logic remains unchanged [11]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The silicon - based industrial chain is under pressure. Industrial silicon fluctuates widely between 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton, and polysilicon is still in a downward channel but with a narrowing decline [12][13]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The domestic and foreign aluminum markets show a pattern of "strong aluminum and weak alumina". The macro - environment and fundamentals are in a game, and the domestic price is expected to fluctuate within a range [16][17][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rebounds due to the possible easing of the war situation. The market shows a pattern of "external strength and internal weakness", and the price is affected by multiple factors such as inventory and supply [18][19][20]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure level [22]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel are expected to be mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships [22][23][24]. - **Tin**: The tin price rebounds and then enters a wait - and - see state. The main contradiction lies in the macro - level, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short - term [24]. - **Lead**: The lead price is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation [25]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The USDA planting intention report shows that the US soybean planting area is unexpectedly reduced, which supports the external market. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to be repaired [26][27]. - **Oils**: The Indonesian government's B50 policy is expected to be implemented, which boosts the palm oil market. The domestic palm oil and soybean oil inventories are sufficient but in a de - stocking trend, and the rapeseed oil inventory is at a low level [27][28]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **SC**: The crude oil price drops due to the news of a possible cease - fire. The market is affected by multiple factors, and there is still great uncertainty [30][31]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakens, and the low - sulfur fuel oil spot premium drops significantly. The shortage of blending components still supports the price [31][32]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price is affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is reduced, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to position control [32][33]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices of platinum and palladium are oscillating strongly. The market is affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed monetary policy, and supply - demand relationships. It is recommended to be bullish on precious metals in the medium - to - long - term [36][37]. - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver rise strongly. The market is affected by factors such as the Middle East situation, Fed monetary policy, and economic data. It is recommended to be bullish on precious metals in the medium - to - long - term [37][38][39]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price is affected by geopolitical factors and inventory. The offset paper futures price is relatively stable. It is recommended to trade pulp futures in the short - term and try low - buying strategies for offset paper [40][41]. - **LPG**: The LPG price is supported by the expected geopolitical premium and the slowdown of inventory accumulation. It is expected to be in a short - term range - bound and strong trend [42][43]. - **PP and Propylene**: The prices of PP and propylene are affected by the Middle East situation and supply - demand relationships. The supply is expected to be reduced, and the demand is limited. The prices are expected to be supported [43][44][46]. - **Plastic**: The plastic price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. The supply is tightened, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [47]. - **Rubber**: The prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber are rising. The market is affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to geopolitical impacts [48][51][52]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash is under pressure, and the demand is relatively stable. The inventory performance is better than expected. The price is expected to be affected by supply - demand relationships and macro - factors [55][56]. - **Glass**: The glass market is affected by factors such as cold - repair expectations, high inventory, and cost. The price is expected to be limited by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to macro - and emotional factors [58]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price is supported by the cost of furnace materials, but the high inventory and weak supply - demand limit the upward space. The price is expected to rebound in the short - term but with limited height [59][60]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is a mix of long and short factors. The price is supported by cost and spot tightness in the short - term but is suppressed by demand and supply increment expectations in the long - term [61]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price drops due to weak market sentiment and over - valuation. The supply is abundant, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to have limited downward space after risk release [62][63]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese fall back. The cost support logic still exists, and silicon manganese may be stronger than silicon iron [63][64]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Pigs**: The pig price continues to bottom out. It is recommended to sell call options on the main contract or be bearish on the far - month contracts [65][66]. - **Cotton**: The expected US cotton planting area is higher than expected. The new - season global supply is expected to decrease, but the inflation in the US and the high domestic - foreign cotton price spread may limit the price. The short - term price is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation [66][67]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is expected to be in a short - term oscillation pattern due to the tense Middle East situation and cautious market sentiment [67][69]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is expected to be stable and slightly strong before the festival, with limited upward space. It is recommended to sell call options on the main contract [69]. - **Apples**: The apple futures price is expected to be strongly oscillating, supported by the scarcity of delivery products in the 05 contract [78]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut price is expected to be in a high - level oscillation. The market is affected by factors such as inventory and oil mill demand [79][80][81]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation and bottom - building pattern due to the loose supply - demand relationship [80][82]. - **Logs**: The log futures price falls due to the easing of geopolitical sentiment. The price is supported by factors such as inventory consumption and stable import costs, and it is recommended to trade in the range [82][83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report holds a view that the methanol futures market will show a trend of oscillating with a slightly upward bias both in the short - term and medium - term. It is expected that the methanol futures will maintain this trend on Wednesday [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Trend and Viewpoint - For the methanol 2605 contract, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all considered to be slightly upward, with an overall view of oscillating with a slightly upward bias [1] 3.2 Core Logic - The US has been taking actions such as deploying troops to the Middle East and sending signals of peace talks with Iran. However, over the weekend, there were continuous military conflicts between the US, Israel and Iran, with attacks on each other's important facilities. Despite the diminishing marginal effect of positive factors, the domestic methanol futures maintained an oscillating and slightly upward trend in the night session on Monday, and are expected to continue the same on Wednesday [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran. The conflict has led to significant fluctuations in commodity prices, and the market is in a state of high uncertainty. The end - conflict signals released by both sides have a certain impact on market sentiment, but the actual supply and demand fundamentals also play important roles in price trends [2][9][93]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. For example, in the metals industry, some metals are affected by supply disruptions in the Middle East, while others are influenced by changes in domestic production and demand. In the agricultural products industry, factors such as planting area, harvest progress, and downstream demand affect prices. In the energy - chemical industry, the conflict in the Middle East has a significant impact on the supply and cost of raw materials [24][70][93]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Selections - **Tin**: With the US and Iran expressing the willingness to end the conflict, market risk appetite has recovered, and tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Supply has improved significantly, and demand is gradually recovering. It is recommended to buy long positions [2][35]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and soda ash is oscillating downward. The short - term supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak, but the downward space is expected to be limited, with the SA605 contract referring to the range of 1150 - 1250 [3][117]. - **Rebar**: Raw materials are strong, supporting the steel price center. The supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [4][53]. - **Live Pigs**: Spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts. The short - term price may be boosted by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a possibility of further decline [5][74]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The Asia - Pacific market is down, and the Q2 style tends to focus on fundamental verification. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - **Precious Metals**: The leaders of the US and Iran have expressed the will to end the war, the US dollar has fallen, and precious metals have rebounded significantly. In the short term, gold may have a technical repair, and silver may also have a band - trading opportunity. Platinum and palladium are in a state of shock and consolidation [9][12]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Iran's intention to end the war has led to a rebound in copper prices. The supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, and the medium - and long - term copper supply - demand contradiction logic has not changed significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract focusing on the pressure at 97000 - 98000 [14][18]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts are continuously accumulating, and the market is running weakly. The industry is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of production cuts in the Middle East is fermenting, and the price is hitting the 25000 mark. The short - term core operating range is expected to be 24000 - 26000, and long positions are recommended to be held [22][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is strongly supported by the price of primary aluminum, and the upward and downward spaces are limited. The short - term price operating range is expected to be 23000 - 24500 [25][26]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices have rebounded, and spot transactions are average. The supply - demand cycle is weak, and the smelting cost will support the zinc price. It is recommended to take a low - buying strategy on dips [27][30]. - **Tin**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to buy long positions [31][35]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the Indonesian export tax policy is still uncertain. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 134000 - 140000 [36][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strengthening, and the market is maintaining a strong - oscillating trend. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 14200 - 14800, and a mid - term low - buying strategy is recommended [38][41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply expectations are uncertain, and the market has fallen significantly. The short - term market may adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see and conduct short - term range operations [42][45]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is oversupplied, and the futures are oscillating downward. It is recommended to wait and see [46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production control has not been achieved, and the futures are falling. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, and strategies such as short - selling at high prices or long - buying at low prices can be considered [48][51]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Raw material prices support the steel price center. Supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [52][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term shipments have declined, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 780 - 830 [54][56]. - **Coking Coal**: Auction transactions have declined, and the market is affected by geopolitical risks. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1050 - 1250 [57][59]. - **Coke**: The spot price increase is about to be implemented, and the market is following the trend of coking coal. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1600 - 1800 [60][63]. - **Silicon Iron**: It is necessary to pay attention to the change in settlement electricity prices, and the market is in a tight - balance state. It is recommended to conduct range operations in the range of 5800 - 6200 [64][65]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Production cuts have been implemented, and the cost support of manganese ore may weaken. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 5700 - 6800 [67][69]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybean planting intention has been slightly increased, and the domestic soybean meal spot market is pessimistic. The future supply pressure will increase, and the soybean meal lacks effective support [70][72]. - **Live Pigs**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts [73][74]. - **Corn**: The bottom support is strong, and the decline is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent policy release [75][77]. - **Sugar**: The spot trading is average, and the market is maintaining a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [78][80]. - **Cotton**: The USDA report shows an increase in the US cotton planting area, and domestic downstream enterprises are cautious in restocking. It is necessary to focus on the actual orders of downstream enterprises, the change in the new - season planting area, and the weather in the main production areas [80][82]. - **Eggs**: Terminal sales are slow, and egg prices are generally falling. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation and a weak trend [83][84]. - **Oils**: Indonesia's plan to promote B50 in July has boosted the oil market. Palm oil may rise in the short term, soybean oil is affected by the increase in US soybean planting area, and rapeseed oil is following the international oil market and maintaining a wide - range oscillation [85][87]. - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is expected to oscillate and fall to build a bottom. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 9500 [88][89]. - **Apples**: The Tomb - sweeping Festival stocking is less than expected, and the price is continuing to weaken. The 05 contract is supported by low inventory, and the 10 contract is affected by the weather expectation of the new - season flowering period [90][91]. 3.6 Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US and Iran have sent signals to cool down the conflict, and oil prices are running weakly. The short - term may be in a weak - oscillation pattern, but the supply shortage still exists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait [92][93]. - **PX**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, PX is oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply and demand are weak, but the overall supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to wait and see [94][95]. - **PTA**: Similar to PX, it is oscillating at a high level. The 4 - month inventory is expected to accumulate, and the demand may drag down the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [96][97]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the restoration of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the cost transmission of downstream products [98]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The supply is expected to be tight in April, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA [99][101]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply will decrease significantly in the second quarter, and the inventory will be significantly reduced. It still has the potential to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [102]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see [103]. - **Styrene**: Similar to pure benzene, it is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply - demand has weakened, but it is still relatively tight. It is recommended to take the same strategy as pure benzene [104][105]. - **LLDPE**: The market is falling, and the basis is strengthening. The supply is expected to shrink, and the price has support at the bottom. It is expected to oscillate in a wide range [106]. - **PP**: Upstream production cuts are increasing, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips [107]. - **Methanol**: The market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. It is recommended to reduce long positions [108]. - **Caustic Soda**: The export expectation has been fulfilled, and the market has returned to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [109][110]. - **PVC**: The chemical market sentiment has subsided, and the price is adjusting. The short - term may be weakly adjusted, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the actual production suspension rhythm of the devices [111][112]. - **Urea**: There is no strong unilateral driving force, and the price is running in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand and policy dynamics, with the main contract referring to the range of 1830 - 1900 [113]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and it is oscillating downward. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][117]. - **Glass**: Cost support has weakened, and it is approaching the previous low. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: The US and Iran have released signals to end the conflict, and rubber prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see, with the operating range expected to be 16000 - 17500 [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The situation in the Middle East is fluctuating, and BR is oscillating at a high level. It still has the potential to rise before the oil transportation in the Middle East is restored, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The off - season cargo - collection is under pressure, and the overall market is weakly oscillating. The 04 contract is oscillating widely around the spot price center, and the 06 contract is expected to oscillate widely following the geopolitical situation. It is recommended to operate in the range and pay attention to risks [123][125].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The EC2604 contract is expected to trade in a narrow range as it is basically at par with the market's neutral forecast after Maersk's price cut in the third week. The EC2605 contract is expected to follow real - world fluctuations and gradually narrow its premium over the EC2604. The EC2606 and far - month contracts will fluctuate widely with geopolitical factors. In the short term, it is difficult for geopolitical tensions to truly cool down, resulting in large one - sided fluctuations. Seasonal spread opportunities to widen at low levels should be continuously monitored [8][9][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Contract Price and Trading Data**: The EC2604 contract closed at 1,672.9 points, down 4.79% with a decrease of 1,524 in positions. The EC2605 contract closed at 1,905.3 points, down 7.01% with an increase of 1,622 in positions. The EC2606 contract closed at 2,394.1 points, down 6.74% with a decrease of 1,369 in positions. The EC2607 contract closed at 2,586.2 points, down 3.14% with a decrease of 35 in positions. The EC2608 contract closed at 2,435.8 points, down 4.31% with an increase of 2,639 in positions. The EC2610 contract closed at 1,592.8 points, down 3.85% with a decrease of 47 in positions [1] - **Spot Freight Rates**: The weekly increase in the European - route freight rate index was 14.5%, and the bi - weekly increase was 4.1%. The freight rate of Maersk from April 13 - 19 (week16) was reduced by 100 to 2200/2300 (40GP/40HC). MSC reduced its price by about 200 to 2640 dollars/FEU from April 1 - 12. OOCL reduced its price by about 50 to 2650 dollars/FEU from April 8 - 14, and the special price of the overtime ship CSCL GLOBE was 2550 dollars/FEU. Evergreen temporarily reported 2900 dollars/FEU from April 7 - 14 [1][9] 2. Supply - side Situation - **Weekly Average Capacity**: The latest weekly average capacity in April was 31.9 million TEU/week, with the first and second half - months being 32.5 and 31.4 million TEU/week respectively. In May, the capacity was 31.6 million TEU/week, and the recent capacity reduction mainly came from 3 sailings suspended by the PA alliance after the May Day holiday [8] - **Red Sea and Mandeb Strait Risks**: The threat in the Red Sea and the Mandeb Strait remains active. In the short term, the Houthis are likely to maintain a restrained stance. The most significant impact on the container shipping market may be the interference with the oil exports from Yanbu Port, which will cause the shipping companies' fuel costs to rise [8] 3. Demand - side Situation - **Loading Pressure**: With the upgrade of the PA ship group route, the loading differences among shipping companies continue. The FE4 route in Shanghai Port faces great cargo - collection pressure, especially for ONE, which has the largest cabin - space share. The lower limit of market loading depends on the cargo - collection situation of this route [8] 4. Mid - to - Long - term Outlook - **Global Trade Growth**: The WTO predicts that the global trade growth rate in 2026 will slow down from 4.6% in 2025 to 1.9%, with the Middle East conflict and energy price fluctuations being the main downward risks [9] 5. Valuation - **Freight Rate Forecast**: In the first week of April (week14), the freight rate center was revised down by 50 to 2550 dollars/FEU. It is estimated that in the second week of April (week15), the market freight rate center may fall to around 2400 - 2450 dollars/FEU, equivalent to about 1700 - 1800 points on the SCFIS, which will be included in the first - phase delivery settlement price of the 2604 contract. In the third week of April, the market freight rate center may fall to around 2350 dollars/FEU, equivalent to about 1600 - 1700 points on the SCFIS, which will be included in the second - phase delivery settlement price of the 2604 contract [10] 6. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European route) is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US President has signaled a cease - fire, and there are signs that the Iranian leadership may be open to ending the war through negotiation. Crude oil prices have fallen, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields have declined, and global risk appetite has increased significantly. Domestically, China's PMI improved significantly in March, the economy exceeded expectations, exports were much better than expected, and inflation continued to recover. The overall economic and inflation situation is better than expected. The government work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. The short - term domestic economic situation is better than expected, and the overseas market is warming up, so the domestic stock index market is expected to improve. [2][3] - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term; government bonds will be in a short - term shock; in the commodity sector, black metals may weaken in the short term, non - ferrous metals may rebound in the short term, energy and chemical products may be strong in the short term, and precious metals may rebound in the short term. [2] Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Overseas, the US President's cease - fire signal and Iran's potential for negotiation led to a drop in crude oil prices, the US dollar index, and US Treasury yields, and a significant increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economy and inflation in March were better than expected. The government work report set 2026 development targets and policies. The short - term domestic economic situation is good, and the overseas market is warming up, so the domestic stock index market is expected to improve. Pay attention to the changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, policy implementation after the Two Sessions, and market sentiment. [2][3] - Asset operation suggestions: short - term cautious observation for stock indices and government bonds; short - term cautious observation for black metals; short - term cautious observation for non - ferrous metals; short - term cautious long for energy and chemical products; short - term cautious long for precious metals. [2] Stock Indices - Affected by sectors such as oil and gas, coal, and energy metals, the domestic stock market declined. However, the economic fundamentals in March were better than expected, and the short - term domestic economic situation is good, and the overseas market is warming up, so the domestic stock index market is expected to improve. Pay attention to the Middle East geopolitical situation, policy implementation after the Two Sessions, and market sentiment. Short - term cautious observation is recommended. [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Tuesday night. With the hope of an end to the Middle East conflict, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields fell, and spot gold and silver rebounded. Precious metals are in a state of significant short - term shock and short - term rebound. Short - term cautious long is recommended. [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets declined on Tuesday, and the market volume was low. The steel market follows energy prices, and the decline in coking coal prices has led to further weakness. The real - world demand has improved slightly, but the apparent consumption of the five major steel products still shows a downward trend year - on - year. The steel production of the five major varieties decreased slightly this week, but the molten iron production increased slightly. There is a risk of a phased correction in April. [4][5] - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined on Tuesday. The previous price increase was supported by energy prices and price negotiation news. The demand for iron ore remains resilient as molten iron production has increased, and the proportion of profitable steel mills is around 43%. The global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 6.71 million tons this week, while the arrival volume increased by 2.113 million tons. The problem of supply - demand mismatch is gradually being resolved. The room for further price increases is limited, and attention should be paid to the phased adjustment risk after the weakening of energy prices. [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded slightly on Tuesday, while the decline in the futures prices widened. The prices follow energy prices. The cost increase has led to some factory production cuts. The inventory of silicon iron and silicon manganese is at a low level, and the overall production cost is supported. The futures prices are recommended to be treated with an interval - shock mindset. [6] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Downstream enterprises replenished their inventories intensively at low prices, resulting in a significant decline in social copper inventories. After the replenishment, the inventory decline rate is expected to slow down. The copper market supply is loose, and the terminal demand recovery in the peak season is not optimistic, which restricts the inventory decline. The current inventory is still at a high level. The core contradiction lies in the mining end, but the probability of extreme shortage is low. [7] - **Aluminum**: The attack on the UAE's global aluminum company may affect electrolytic aluminum production in the short term, supporting aluminum prices. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is at a high level and is being depleted slowly. The domestic aluminum supply remains high. [7] - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory is basically the same as last week, at 214,000 tons, and is still at a high level in recent years. The zinc ore processing fees in the southern region have rebounded, and the import ore TC has decreased. The domestic smelting production remains at a relatively high level, and overseas smelting production will recover in 2026. The demand is not optimistic. [8][9] - **Lead**: The decline in domestic lead ingot inventory has stopped, and the LME inventory is stable. The production of primary and secondary lead has increased seasonally. The demand peak season has passed, and the demand is in the off - season. The import volume of refined and crude lead has increased significantly. [9] - **Nickel**: Indonesia's policy is changeable. The core contradiction lies in the mining end. The RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, and there are risks in MHP supply. Nickel prices have support at the bottom, but the upside is limited by high inventories at home and abroad. [10] - **Tin**: The import of tin ore from Myanmar has increased significantly, and the import sources are more diversified. The demand in the semiconductor industry is good, but other industries are not performing well, and the overall demand is not good. The social inventory of tin ingots has decreased, and the LME inventory has decreased. [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate fell significantly on Tuesday. The decline is mainly due to the rumored news of the opening of lithium ore exports in Zimbabwe. The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still strong, with both supply and demand booming, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to lay out at low prices or hold long positions cautiously. [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon fell on Tuesday. The supply and demand are weak, the production capacity is excessive, and the inventory is at a high level. It is priced close to the cost, and it is recommended to operate within an interval, paying attention to the cost support at the bottom. [12] - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon fell on Tuesday. The price has returned to the cost - based pricing, and the inventory is continuously accumulating at a high level. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or partially take profits. [13] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Iran and the US have signaled a willingness to resolve the conflict, leading to a narrowing of the risk premium and a decline in oil prices. However, the market is still worried about the impact on the global energy system. The average gasoline price in the US has exceeded $4 per gallon, posing a political risk to the Trump administration. Oil prices will remain at a high - central and high - volatility level in the short term. [14] - **Asphalt**: As oil prices decline, asphalt is likely to follow. There are short - term supply problems, and seasonal demand will increase, driving inventory depletion. The short - term inventory accumulation pressure is limited, and the new contract price is expected to rise significantly after April, supporting the market bottom. The absolute price will continue to fluctuate significantly with crude oil. [14] - **PX**: The shortage of naphtha continues, and overseas PX prices remain strong. With the increase in domestic PX plant maintenance plans, the PX price is expected to remain strong, but the upside may be limited by the increase in PTA plant maintenance plans. [15] - **PTA**: In the peak season, terminal orders and开工 are lower than in previous years, and the negative feedback continues. The PTA cost is still supported, but the downstream filament production reduction has increased. The PTA basis has rebounded slightly, and the negative feedback restricts the price increase. PTA is likely to continue to fluctuate strongly. [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Driven by export expectations, ethylene glycol prices rose, but after the decline in oil prices, inventory pressure was reflected in the futures price. Overseas supply is expected to decrease significantly, and the price will remain high - volatile. Attention should be paid to the terminal negative feedback. [15] - **Short - fiber**: Affected by the high - volatility of crude oil prices and negative feedback in the polyester sector, short - fiber prices will continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, following PTA and other varieties. [16][17] - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market is strong, and the port basis is strengthening. Affected by the news of the US - Iran peace talks, the energy and chemical futures market has declined. However, due to the obstruction of Iranian exports and unstable Middle East plants, the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The domestic demand is warming up in the peak season, and the spot is in short supply. The market is strong, but the volatility has increased significantly. [17] - **PP**: The market price has declined. The upstream supply is shrinking, and the downstream demand is increasing, providing support for the price. The market is expected to remain strong, and attention should be paid to the situation of the cease - fire talks. [18] - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price has adjusted. The upstream supply is shrinking, and the demand is supported by the traditional peak season. The inventory is depleting rapidly. The market is expected to continue to be strong, but there is inventory pressure in some areas. Geopolitical factors are the key variables for external supply. [18] - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is stable. Affected by external positive factors, the futures market has strengthened, boosting the spot market sentiment. However, the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices is still in place, and the industrial demand is supporting the market. The export is tightening, and the price will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term. [19] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The overnight CBOT July soybean contract closed higher. The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report shows that the estimated soybean planting area in 2026 is 84.7 million acres, lower than the market expectation. The quarterly grain inventory report shows that the soybean inventory on March 1, 2026, is 2.104803 billion bushels, higher than the analyst's estimate. [20] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply and demand of imported soybeans for domestic oil mills in April are balanced, and the inventory is loose. The basis is under seasonal pressure. The far - month oil mill crushing profit supports more purchases of soybeans, and the future supply - demand situation is expected to be loose. For rapeseed meal, as the import of rapeseed increases in the far - month, the supply concern fades, and the price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal widens. It will follow the soybean meal's shock adjustment. [20] - **Oils**: The overnight BMD palm oil closed higher. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy has boosted market sentiment. The decline in crude oil prices due to the US - Iran cease - fire intention has put pressure on the vegetable oil premium. The domestic soybean and rapeseed oil spot basis is stable, and the demand is weak. Palm oil exports from Malaysia are strong, and the inventory is expected to decrease significantly. Palm oil will maintain a high - level shock. [21] - **Corn**: The national corn price is slightly weak. The supply and demand situation has not changed significantly, but the market atmosphere is not high. Traders are more willing to sell, and the inventory of downstream deep - processing enterprises is accumulating. The feed enterprises are using more imported and policy - auctioned grains, and the acceptance of high - price corn is decreasing. The unconfirmed news of brown rice auction in early April may limit the corn price. [21] - **Pigs**: The average weight of pigs is increasing, and small - scale farmers are reluctant to sell, while large - scale farms are increasing the supply with a slight weight reduction. The short - term breeding profit is in a loss, and the policy is guiding weight reduction and production reduction. The short - term spot price may continue to weaken, but the long - term expectation is improving. The futures market has risks in the near - month contract, while the long - term contract has stronger support. [22]