~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 这波涨势的核心推手之一是围绕美国市场的套利活动和关税预期。提单数据显示，12月下旬美国铜进口 量激增至多年高位，COMEX铜相对于LME铜继续保持溢价。市场正在为持续到6月的关税风险定价， 这支撑了非美国地区的定价和价差。花旗的基本假设是，虽然市场在交易关税风险，但最终美国精炼铜 关税可能不会实质性落地，或者通过对智利等伙伴的豁免来缓解，但在此之前，这种不确定性仍是多头 的燃料。 对于基本面投资者而言，供给侧的反应不容忽视。花旗警告称，当前13000美元/吨的价格水平已经足以 刺激废铜回收的增加（以及替代效应），这将导致2026年全球实物市场趋于平衡： "我们认为，超过13000美元/吨的进一步涨幅最终都会被市场回吐。高价格有可能触发看跌 的实物信号，例如库存可见度和可用性的上升。" 虽然基准预测是回调，但花旗也保留了20%概率的"牛市情景"，即铜价冲向15000美元/吨。但这需要一 系列完美的宏观配合：投资者对美国经济"非常软着陆"的激进定价、美元进一步走弱、美联储更大幅度 的降息引发周期性增长复苏，或者是供应端出现意外冲击（如矿山供应问题或废铜对高价反应迟 ...

中国 & 香港 & 美国可选消费 China (A-share) & Hong Kong & US Discretionary 可选消费 W01 周度趋势解析：免税优异表现拉动增长，港股消费跌幅较大 研究报告 Research Report 5 Jan 2026 Week 01 Discretionary Trends: Duty-Free Excellence Drives Growth, Hong Kong Consumer Stocks Decline Significantly [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | 耐克 | Outperform 波司登 | | Outperform | | 美的集团 | Outperform 李宁 | | Outperform | | 京东集团 | Outperform 永辉超市 | | Outperform | | 海尔智家 | Outperform 石头科技 | | Outp ...

日度报告——综合晨报 以色列警告可能再次打击伊朗，央行开展 1771 亿元逆回购 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-26 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 以色列警告可能再次打击伊朗 以色列对伊朗发动打击的可能性明显上升，因此需要关注地缘 风险的变化，美元指数短期震荡。 宏观策略（国债期货） 央行开展了 1771 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 综 央行增加购债规模的概率较大，机构交易结构较为脆弱的问题 正在得到缓解，且近期稳增长政策也相对有限，长债震荡转涨 的概率较高。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 前 11 月新开工改造老旧小区已完成全年计划 报 A 股延续上涨，沪指录得 7 连阳，全 A 成交额稳定在 1.9 万亿左 右。商业航天、存储芯片等题材涨幅较大。预计沪指将在短期 内冲击 4000 点。 黑色金属（铁矿石） 1-11 月全国新开工改造城镇老旧小区 2.58 万个 本周铁水预计继续下行 1-2 万吨，市场关注 1 月份铁水是否继续 下滑。本周五大材库存明显去化，非五大材库存小幅攀升。预 计短期基本面仍将承压，以弱势震荡为主。 有色金属（锡） 美未来 18 个月不对中国芯片加征额外关税 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that despite a significant drop in the stock price of Mindray Medical, its actual controller, Li Xiting, has recently increased his stake by approximately 200 million yuan, which is relatively minor compared to previous large-scale reductions [1] - Since the beginning of 2023, Li Xiting and his holding platforms have significantly reduced their stakes, cashing out around 2.5 billion yuan in a single quarter, totaling over 10 billion yuan [1] - Industry insiders believe that the domestic medical and consumables procurement continues to face challenges, and the fundamental aspects of the industry have not yet bottomed out, while overseas operations are facing tariff-related risks [1] Group 2 - As of June 2023, the four holding platforms still collectively held 50 million shares of Mindray Medical, but by June 2025, they are expected to disappear from the list of the top ten shareholders [2] - The estimated cash-out amount from these reductions over the two-year period could exceed 10 billion yuan based on average stock prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decision to pause interest rate hikes reflects a response to cooling inflation, allowing for more economic support amid tariff risks [1] Group 1 - The move ended a two-meeting streak of pauses in interest rate adjustments [1] - Cooling inflation is creating an opportunity for the economy to receive additional support [1] - The decision is influenced by the need to mitigate risks associated with tariffs [1]

由于一系列大型矿山停产冲击全球供应，LME基准铜价今年以来已上涨逾30%。但美国期铜涨幅更大， 原因在于投资者押注，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普将在明年年底前宣布对初级铜产品征收关税。 BMO Capital Markets Ltd．的大宗商品分析师Helen Amos表示："当然，铜的基本面非常强劲，投资者 也意识到矿业公司在维持和扩大供应方面面临真正的困难。但与此同时，美国和全球其他地区之间存在 价格套利，这可能是目前推动铜价上涨的最主要因素。" 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：丁文武 铜价周三大涨并再创新高，此前投资者从伦敦金属交易所（LME）仓库中提取铜的订单激增，进一步 加剧了对供应的担忧，因为市场本已担心潜在的美国关税可能会引发全球供应紧张。 LME期铜一度上涨3.4%，每吨价格升至11，500美元以上，突破了周一创下的高点，此前LME的数据显 示，其亚洲仓库的铜提货订单出现激增。铜矿股也随之走高，智利铜生产商Antofagasta Plc股价大涨逾 5%，创历史新高。 近几周，随着越来越多交易员和分析师警告称，大量铜正被抢在关税实施前运往美国，全球库存可能很 快会被消耗至极低水平，铜 ...

Core Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) has highlighted that financial stability vulnerabilities in the Eurozone remain high due to uncertainties surrounding trade agreements and the long-term impacts of tariffs [1][2] Group 1: Financial Stability Risks - Financial stability vulnerabilities are still at elevated levels, with high asset valuations posing a risk of significant adjustments that could challenge non-bank financial institutions [2] - The fiscal outlook for some developed countries is under pressure, raising concerns in the market that could impact the global bond market and weaken the Eurozone's competitiveness [2] - The banking system faces credit and financing risks, particularly related to exposure to companies sensitive to tariffs, which could challenge banks during economic downturns [2][3] Group 2: Economic and Structural Challenges - Despite improvements in the balance sheets of Eurozone businesses and households, the corporate sector remains vulnerable to tariff impacts, which could affect household debt repayment capacity [3] - Structural challenges such as slow digitalization, low productivity, population aging, and climate change may pressure asset balance sheets and increase financing costs [2] - The ECB emphasizes the importance of maintaining and enhancing the resilience of the financial system in the current uncertain macro-financial and policy environment [4]

Core Viewpoint - Barclays Research anticipates that risk assets will receive stronger support, and the US dollar will continue to strengthen until 2026, despite market volatility due to uncertainties surrounding AI valuations, investment returns, and earnings growth [1] Group 1: US Dollar Outlook - The positive outlook for the US dollar is primarily based on significant AI capital expenditure plans in the US, which could have transformative impacts on the economy, geopolitics, and competition [1] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve are diminishing, tariff risks are easing, and fiscal stimulus measures are advancing, contributing to a positive momentum for the dollar expected to last until 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Even if risk sentiment deteriorates further, there is still potential for the dollar to appreciate against the yen, while high-beta emerging market currencies may face vulnerabilities [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, Anta Sports, China Duty Free, and others [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that domestic and overseas consumer subsectors are not showing synchronized movements, with internal factors driving stock performance [4][10]. - The performance of various sectors is analyzed, indicating that the U.S. hotel sector has outperformed others, while luxury goods and overseas cosmetics have seen significant declines [10][13]. Sector Performance Summary - **U.S. Hotels**: The sector saw a weekly increase of 7.9%, driven by strong performance from Marriott and Hilton, with Marriott's RevPAR growth meeting market expectations [5][13]. - **Pet Sector**: Increased by 1.1%, with leading brands showing significant growth in GMV despite overall sales being weak [5][13]. - **Gambling Sector**: Rose by 0.7%, with Macau's GGR exceeding expectations, indicating strong future performance [5][13]. - **Retail Sector**: Experienced a slight decline of 0.3%, with China Duty Free benefiting from new tax policies [7][13]. - **Snack Sector**: Fell by 1.9%, with competitive pressures affecting performance [7][13]. - **Gold and Jewelry Sector**: Decreased by 2.5% due to tax reforms impacting profitability [7][13]. - **Overseas Sportswear**: Dropped by 2.8%, facing tariff pressures and concerns over U.S. consumer spending [7][13]. - **Luxury Goods**: Declined by 3.0%, with concerns over upcoming earnings reports affecting stock prices [7][13]. - **Domestic Cosmetics**: Fell by 3.4%, with overall performance weaker than international brands [7][13]. - **Overseas Cosmetics**: Experienced a significant drop of 11.6%, primarily due to ELF Beauty's disappointing earnings [7][13]. Valuation Analysis - Most sectors are valued below their average over the past five years, with specific PE ratios indicating potential undervaluation [8][14]. - **Overseas Sportswear**: Expected PE of 28.6, 54% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Domestic Sportswear**: Expected PE of 14.1, 74% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Gold and Jewelry**: Expected PE of 22.1, 42% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Luxury Goods**: Expected PE of 25.6, 46% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Gambling**: Expected PE of 29.1, 47% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Overseas Cosmetics**: Expected PE of 35.5, 53% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Domestic Cosmetics**: Expected PE of 27.9, 52% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Pet Sector**: Expected PE of 40.3, 55% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Snack Sector**: Expected PE of 26.8, 65% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Retail Sector**: Expected PE of 28.6, 53% of the past five-year average [14]. - **U.S. Hotels**: Expected PE of 31.4, 19% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Credit Card Sector**: Expected PE of 28.9, 55% of the past five-year average [14].

Core Insights - The recent tariff exemption agreement reached on October 26 has benefited export products from Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, reducing overall tariff risks to their GDPs [1] - Despite the exemptions, Vietnam's economic risk exposure remains high, attributed to its export-oriented economy and heavy reliance on the U.S. market [1] Group 1: Tariff Exemption Agreement - The agreement allows Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia to provide favorable market access for U.S. goods, reducing tariffs on American products and facilitating commercial purchases, including LNG and aircraft [1] - Malaysia is identified as the primary beneficiary, with 63% of its export products receiving exemptions, while Thailand and Vietnam have 43% and 44% of their exports exempted, respectively [1] Group 2: Economic Risk Exposure - Vietnam's risk exposure in U.S. exports remains at 16.1% of its GDP, indicating significant vulnerability despite the tariff exemptions [1] - In contrast, Malaysia and Thailand's direct risk exposure has decreased to single digits, while Singapore and Indonesia, which did not receive the exemptions, maintain low risk exposure [2] Group 3: Potential Risks and Mitigation Strategies - The new agreement may lead to increased imports of U.S. goods, potentially impacting local industries and weakening the current account balance [2] - The report suggests that ASEAN countries are diversifying trade to mitigate adverse effects, including pursuing new trade agreements like the EUFTA and implementing domestic growth strategies [2]