Core Viewpoint - Barclays Research anticipates that risk assets will receive stronger support, and the US dollar will continue to strengthen until 2026, despite market volatility due to uncertainties surrounding AI valuations, investment returns, and earnings growth [1] Group 1: US Dollar Outlook - The positive outlook for the US dollar is primarily based on significant AI capital expenditure plans in the US, which could have transformative impacts on the economy, geopolitics, and competition [1] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve are diminishing, tariff risks are easing, and fiscal stimulus measures are advancing, contributing to a positive momentum for the dollar expected to last until 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Even if risk sentiment deteriorates further, there is still potential for the dollar to appreciate against the yen, while high-beta emerging market currencies may face vulnerabilities [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, Anta Sports, China Duty Free, and others [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that domestic and overseas consumer subsectors are not showing synchronized movements, with internal factors driving stock performance [4][10]. - The performance of various sectors is analyzed, indicating that the U.S. hotel sector has outperformed others, while luxury goods and overseas cosmetics have seen significant declines [10][13]. Sector Performance Summary - **U.S. Hotels**: The sector saw a weekly increase of 7.9%, driven by strong performance from Marriott and Hilton, with Marriott's RevPAR growth meeting market expectations [5][13]. - **Pet Sector**: Increased by 1.1%, with leading brands showing significant growth in GMV despite overall sales being weak [5][13]. - **Gambling Sector**: Rose by 0.7%, with Macau's GGR exceeding expectations, indicating strong future performance [5][13]. - **Retail Sector**: Experienced a slight decline of 0.3%, with China Duty Free benefiting from new tax policies [7][13]. - **Snack Sector**: Fell by 1.9%, with competitive pressures affecting performance [7][13]. - **Gold and Jewelry Sector**: Decreased by 2.5% due to tax reforms impacting profitability [7][13]. - **Overseas Sportswear**: Dropped by 2.8%, facing tariff pressures and concerns over U.S. consumer spending [7][13]. - **Luxury Goods**: Declined by 3.0%, with concerns over upcoming earnings reports affecting stock prices [7][13]. - **Domestic Cosmetics**: Fell by 3.4%, with overall performance weaker than international brands [7][13]. - **Overseas Cosmetics**: Experienced a significant drop of 11.6%, primarily due to ELF Beauty's disappointing earnings [7][13]. Valuation Analysis - Most sectors are valued below their average over the past five years, with specific PE ratios indicating potential undervaluation [8][14]. - **Overseas Sportswear**: Expected PE of 28.6, 54% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Domestic Sportswear**: Expected PE of 14.1, 74% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Gold and Jewelry**: Expected PE of 22.1, 42% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Luxury Goods**: Expected PE of 25.6, 46% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Gambling**: Expected PE of 29.1, 47% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Overseas Cosmetics**: Expected PE of 35.5, 53% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Domestic Cosmetics**: Expected PE of 27.9, 52% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Pet Sector**: Expected PE of 40.3, 55% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Snack Sector**: Expected PE of 26.8, 65% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Retail Sector**: Expected PE of 28.6, 53% of the past five-year average [14]. - **U.S. Hotels**: Expected PE of 31.4, 19% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Credit Card Sector**: Expected PE of 28.9, 55% of the past five-year average [14].

Core Insights - The recent tariff exemption agreement reached on October 26 has benefited export products from Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, reducing overall tariff risks to their GDPs [1] - Despite the exemptions, Vietnam's economic risk exposure remains high, attributed to its export-oriented economy and heavy reliance on the U.S. market [1] Group 1: Tariff Exemption Agreement - The agreement allows Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia to provide favorable market access for U.S. goods, reducing tariffs on American products and facilitating commercial purchases, including LNG and aircraft [1] - Malaysia is identified as the primary beneficiary, with 63% of its export products receiving exemptions, while Thailand and Vietnam have 43% and 44% of their exports exempted, respectively [1] Group 2: Economic Risk Exposure - Vietnam's risk exposure in U.S. exports remains at 16.1% of its GDP, indicating significant vulnerability despite the tariff exemptions [1] - In contrast, Malaysia and Thailand's direct risk exposure has decreased to single digits, while Singapore and Indonesia, which did not receive the exemptions, maintain low risk exposure [2] Group 3: Potential Risks and Mitigation Strategies - The new agreement may lead to increased imports of U.S. goods, potentially impacting local industries and weakening the current account balance [2] - The report suggests that ASEAN countries are diversifying trade to mitigate adverse effects, including pursuing new trade agreements like the EUFTA and implementing domestic growth strategies [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - After the Sino-US summit in Busan, market risk sentiment may subside, reducing the short - term safe - haven demand for gold investment. Gold prices are expected to be in a slightly stronger oscillation pattern, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 900 yuan/gram and 950 yuan/gram. Silver has a similar macro - logical relationship with gold. Due to the recovery of risk sentiment, silver prices are slightly stronger than gold, and the Ag2512 contract is expected to oscillate between 11200 yuan/kilogram and 11700 yuan/kilogram [8][9] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - After the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Trump, the two economic and trade teams reached a consensus on important economic and trade issues. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will be suspended for another year. The US will also suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule for export controls and the 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. China will adjust or suspend relevant counter - measures accordingly. The US Treasury Secretary mentioned the second - round interview of the Federal Reserve Chairman and his view on the Fed's interest rate cut [1] - The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2% for the third consecutive time, believing that inflation has reached the 2% target level. Although the euro - zone economy shows certain resilience, geopolitical tensions and US tariff uncertainties still pose risks [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On October 30, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 919.70 yuan/gram and closed at 912.16 yuan/gram, a change of 0.14% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41087 lots, and the open interest was 129725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 910.00 yuan/gram and closed at 920.40 yuan/gram, a 0.90% increase from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 11427.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11253.00 yuan/kilogram, a - 0.75% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 820874 lots, and the open interest was 283230 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11245 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11448 yuan/kilogram, a 1.73% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 30, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.097%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.49%, a change of - 2BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 902 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions increased by 708 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 412100 lots, a 13.45% change from the previous trading day. On the Ag2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 8579 lots, and the short positions decreased by 8236 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 820874 lots, a 9.76% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1036.05 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15210 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On October 30, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 11.46 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was - 753.64 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 81.06, a 0.90% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 83.53, a - 0.79% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On October 30, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 57302 kilograms, a 9.92% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1294530 kilograms, a 113.81% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 112200 kilograms [7]

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of various companies in the textile and apparel industry, indicating a mixed recovery in sales and profitability across different segments [5][8][14] - The report emphasizes the impact of promotional activities, particularly in e-commerce, on driving sales growth for small and medium-sized businesses [7][9] - The textile manufacturing sector is expected to see a revaluation as tariff risks stabilize, with global textile and apparel exports projected to reach approximately $882.7 billion by 2024 [13][14] Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed positive movements, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,996.94, up 1.18% [4] - The textile and apparel sector experienced a slight increase of 0.37%, while the light industry manufacturing sector rose by 2.62% [9] Company Performance - Tmall and JD flagship stores of Lao Pu Gold have seen a price increase of around 20% for major products, indicating strong demand in the jewelry sector [14] - For the first half of FY2026, Tabo's revenue decreased by 5.8% to 12.299 billion yuan, with a net profit decline of 9.7% to 789 million yuan [8] - Wan'an Technology reported a 13.93% increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 3.46 billion yuan, with a net profit of 148 million yuan [17] Industry Dynamics - The textile manufacturing sector's exports from China for the first nine months of 2025 were $106.48 billion for textiles and $115.21 billion for apparel, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.1% and a decline of 2.5%, respectively [14] - The report notes that the global textile and apparel export growth rate is expected to average 3.2% from 2020 to 2024, recovering from previous declines [13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Shenzhou International, which has a lower exposure to U.S. tariffs and a strong overseas production capacity [16] - It also suggests monitoring brands such as Bosideng and Anta Sports for potential growth opportunities in the apparel sector [10][16]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "A" rating for investment in the textile manufacturing industry, with specific buy recommendations for Shenzhou International (02313.HK), Yuanyuan Group (00551.HK), and Huali Group (300979.SZ) [1]. Core Insights - The global textile and apparel export value is approximately $900 billion, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.2% from 2020 to 2024. The export value is projected to reach $882.7 billion by 2024 [2][16]. - The apparel manufacturing industry is experiencing a trend of vertical integration, with some mid-to-large companies extending upstream into weaving and dyeing processes, while the footwear industry remains more concentrated in competition [3][4]. - The report highlights that the sportswear manufacturing sector has a low concentration level, with vertical integration becoming a trend. Shenzhou International is identified as the largest sports knitwear manufacturer globally, with a production capacity of 550 million garments and revenue of 28.7 billion yuan in 2024 [4][9]. Summary by Sections Textile Manufacturing Overview - The global textile and apparel export value is around $900 billion, with the EU, the US, and Japan being the top three importers. The CAGR from 1989 to 2000 was 5.6%, while from 2014 to 2020, it slowed to -0.3% due to inventory destocking and pandemic impacts [16][19]. - The report notes that the textile manufacturing industry is shifting globally, with China's export share declining to 34% in 2023 [19][20]. Apparel Manufacturing Industry - The apparel manufacturing supply chain includes six main areas: fiber, spinning, weaving, dyeing, garment making, and retail. The trend is towards vertical integration, enhancing product development capabilities [36]. - Major apparel manufacturers have high customer concentration, with the largest customer accounting for about 30% of revenue for many companies [50][52]. - The report indicates that overseas production capacity is expanding, with Vietnam, Cambodia, and Indonesia being the primary locations for apparel manufacturing [55]. Footwear Manufacturing Industry - The footwear manufacturing industry has a higher concentration level, with leading companies like Yuanyuan Group dominating the market. In 2024, Yuanyuan Group is expected to produce 255 million pairs of shoes, generating revenue of $5.621 billion [4][9]. - The report emphasizes that the competition in the footwear sector is more concentrated compared to apparel, with fewer suppliers for footwear than for apparel [3][43]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends Shenzhou International due to its lower exposure to the US market and strong overseas fabric production capacity, which exceeds 50% [9]. - Yuanyuan Group is recommended for its strong upstream material control and potential for profit recovery as production capacity increases [9]. - Huali Group is noted for its average exposure to the US market and optimistic sales outlook due to new client acquisitions [9].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the indirect risks posed by trade disruptions, which are often difficult to quantify and may not immediately reflect in financial statements. Understanding supply chain data is crucial for assessing the financial impact of ongoing trade tensions [2][4]. Group 1: Trade Risks and Economic Exposure - Investors should look beyond a company's registered location to understand its broader economic risk exposure, as revenue sources may span multiple regions, each facing different risks, especially amid escalating trade tensions [4]. - The U.S. is considering higher tariffs on European goods, exacerbating trade disputes with the EU, which adds to the uncertainty and challenges for long-term planning [4]. - FactSet's GeoRev, Supply Chain Relationships, and RBICS data provide critical insights into a company's true business landscape, helping investors identify potential vulnerabilities from trade disruptions [4][5]. Group 2: Supply Chain Vulnerabilities - Tools like GeoRev and supply chain data help investors assess a company's risk exposure in key regions, supply chain fragility, and industry risks, enabling more accurate risk assessments and strategic positioning [5]. - Companies that appear unaffected by trade tensions may still have indirect vulnerabilities due to reliance on overseas suppliers or indirect connections to affected regions [5][6]. Group 3: Case Study - Vuzix Corp - Vuzix, a U.S. AR glasses manufacturer, has a low direct revenue exposure to China (2.1%), yet its multi-tier supply chain remains susceptible to U.S. tariff tensions [6][19]. - Vuzix's revenue breakdown shows that the U.S. accounts for 56.1% of total revenue, with significant contributions from France (7.5%) and Canada (6.9%) [7]. - The analysis of Vuzix's supply chain reveals potential indirect risks through its suppliers and customers, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive understanding of the entire ecosystem [13][21]. Group 4: Broader Implications for Companies - Companies like Texas Instruments, which supply critical components to Vuzix, face significant revenue exposure to China (18.8%) and the EU (16.5%), highlighting the complexities of coordinating manufacturing across regions amid tariff uncertainties [19][20]. - Sony, despite being based in Japan, has a substantial U.S. customer base (28.8% of revenue) and is affected by U.S. tariff policies, necessitating adjustments in logistics and pricing strategies [21][24]. - The article identifies companies with over 50% revenue exposure to the U.S. that rely heavily on Chinese suppliers, underscoring the importance of recognizing indirect risks in global supply chains [28][29].

Economic Activity - Overall economic activity in the U.S. has shown little change, with some regions reporting slight to moderate growth, while others indicate stagnation or slight decline [1] - The labor market remains stable, but demand is generally weak across most Federal Reserve districts [1][2] Inflation and Costs - Tariffs imposed by the U.S. government are contributing to rising inflation, with companies struggling to absorb costs or pass them on to consumers [2][6] - Consumer spending has slightly decreased, particularly in retail, as inflation and economic uncertainty lead to a divergence in spending across income groups [2][7] Labor Market Trends - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with stable employment levels but low demand for labor across various sectors [1][3] - The balance of supply and demand in the labor market is expected to lead to a gradual decrease in monthly job additions, stabilizing around 8,000 by mid-next year [3] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve has initiated a preventive rate cut to counteract employment slowdown, with expectations of further cuts in the coming months [5][8] - The current monetary policy environment is characterized by uncertainty, with potential for more aggressive rate cuts depending on economic data and political pressures [9][10] Future Economic Outlook - The probability of a recession in the U.S. is currently estimated at around 30%, with risks including the negative impact of tariffs on growth and inflation [3][4] - The Fed's actions and the political landscape, particularly with upcoming elections, may influence future monetary policy and economic stability [10]

Market Sentiment and Trade War - The equity market has shown resilience despite significant escalation in trade war rhetoric between the US and China [2][3] - Investors appear to be fatigued by ongoing discussions about the trade war, indicating a shift in sentiment [4][5] Economic Indicators and Consumer Impact - The Fed Beige Book noted that tariffs are raising prices, particularly affecting lower and middle-income consumers [6] - Concerns arise regarding the potential impact of tariffs on earnings, revenue, and consumer spending [7] Interest Rates and Monetary Policy - Expectations for interest rates have decreased, with the 10-year yield dropping below 4%, reflecting a positive tailwind for the market [9] - There is speculation that rates could further decline to around 2.25%, similar to levels seen in 2019 [10] Corporate Sector Insights - Discussions with CEOs indicate that while the lower end of the market is struggling, the upper end remains stable across various sectors [11] - Notable investment activity includes JP Morgan's commitment of $1.5 trillion in the US, suggesting confidence in certain market segments [14] Credit Market Concerns - BlackRock and Fidelity are shorting corporate bonds, indicating concerns about tight spreads and potential distress in the corporate bond market [13] - The current tight credit spreads raise questions about the market's vulnerability to a risk-off scenario [15]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's policy board member, Naohisa Tamura, hinted at a potential interest rate hike during the monetary policy meeting on October 29-30, citing rising inflation risks and the need to gradually reduce monetary easing [1] - Tamura believes that the timeline for achieving the 2% inflation target may be sooner than previously expected, contrasting with the Bank of Japan's forecast that it would not be reached until the latter half of the 2027 outlook period [1] - Japan's real interest rates remain in negative territory, and Tamura suggests that the central bank should approach a neutral monetary policy stance, estimating Japan's neutral rate to be at least 1% [1] Group 2 - An IMF official emphasized that due to global trade uncertainties, the Bank of Japan must maintain a loose monetary policy and adopt a very gradual approach to interest rate hikes [2] - The IMF noted that Japan's economy has performed better than expected this year, driven by strong consumption and exports, although growth risks are skewed to the downside due to unclear trade negotiations and potential reversals in global monetary easing [2] - There is uncertainty regarding whether domestic wages in Japan can continue to rise and support consumption, which is crucial for stabilizing inflation around the Bank of Japan's 2% target [2] Group 3 - Market expectations suggest that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates again in January 2024, influenced by the current political uncertainty in Japan [3] - Analysts predict that the next interest rate hike will occur in January, with expectations that rates will reach 1.50% by the end of 2027 [3] - Despite a potential decrease in the likelihood of a rate hike in October, the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain a hawkish stance in the short term, while being cautious to avoid excessive tightening that could harm the economy [3]