【导读】美股全线收涨，道指创历史新高；中概股普遍上涨；费城金银指数创历史新高 美东时间8月22日周五，美国三大股指全线收涨，道指创历史新高。鲍威尔讲话推动大型科技股上涨，特斯拉涨超6%，Meta、Alphabet、亚马逊涨超2%。 原油小幅收涨，费城金银指数继续创历史新高。 道指创历史新高 截至收盘，道指大涨846.24点，涨幅为1.89%，报45631.74点，创历史新高，标普500指数涨1.52%，报6466.91点，纳指涨1.88%，报21496.53点。 本周，道指涨1.53%，标普500指数涨0.27%，纳指跌0.58%。 美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上发表重磅讲话，称风险平衡似乎正在发生变化，当前的形势意味着，就业面临的下行风险上升。随着政策处于 紧缩区域，这种风险平衡的转变可能意味着需要调整政策立场。 大型科技股全线上涨，特斯拉涨超6%，谷歌涨逾3%，亚马逊涨超3%，脸书涨逾2%，英伟达涨超1%，苹果涨逾1%，微软涨0.59%。 | TAMAMA科技指数 | 18799.46 | 2.05% | | --- | --- | --- | | 8884057 | | | | 苹果(APPLE ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The overall market sentiment has shown a mixed picture. Overseas, the global risk appetite has cooled to some extent, while in China, the risk appetite has increased due to policy stimulus expectations and the extension of the tariff truce period. Different asset classes have different short - term trends and investment suggestions, and various commodity sectors also face different supply - demand and price situations. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, the US dollar reduced its decline after the Fed meeting minutes showed only two policymakers supported last month's rate cut, and the global risk appetite cooled. In China, the economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. The Chinese Premier indicated measures to boost consumption and stabilize the real estate market, and the Sino - US tariff truce was extended by 90 days, increasing domestic risk appetite. For assets, the stock index is expected to oscillate strongly at a short - term high, and it is advisable to be cautious when going long; the treasury bond is expected to oscillate and correct at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; for the commodity sector, black metals are expected to correct in the short term, non - ferrous metals to oscillate, energy and chemicals to oscillate weakly, and precious metals to oscillate at a high level, all requiring cautious observation. [2] Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as liquor, semiconductors, and small metals, the domestic stock market rose significantly. The economic data in July was weak, but policy stimulus expectations increased, and the short - term macro - upward driving force strengthened. The market's trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. It is advisable to be cautious when going long in the short term. [3] Precious Metals - Precious metals rose on Wednesday. The Fed meeting minutes showed only two policymakers advocated rate cuts, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September was 83%. Weak employment data and a weakening US dollar index led to the rise of precious metals. The long - term positive logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to entry opportunities at key points. [4] Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets were flat, with prices slightly falling and low trading volume. Demand weakened, and inventories in some areas increased. Supply of rebar was relatively low, and that of plates was stable. There were rumors of production control in Cangzhou, and iron - water production may further decline. It is advisable to view the steel market with a weak - oscillation mindset in the short term. [4][5] - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore continued to be weak. Although steel mill profits were high and iron - water production rebounded slightly last week, with the approaching of important events in early September, production - restriction policies may be further strengthened, and port transportation and ore handling volumes will be affected. The supply side increased, and port inventories were accumulating. Iron ore prices may weaken in the short term. [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese fell. Manganese ore prices continued to decline. Manufacturers were actively starting production, and some had plans to increase production. The开工 rate and daily output of both silicon manganese and silicon iron increased. It is advisable to view the ferroalloy market with a weak - oscillation mindset in the short term. [6] - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday, the main soda - ash contract was weak. The supply - surplus pattern remained unchanged, with new installations expected to be put into operation in the fourth quarter. Demand was weak, and profits decreased week - on - week. Soda ash is likely to fall rather than rise due to high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. [7] - **Glass**: On Wednesday, the main glass contract was weak. Supply changes were small, demand was still weak in the real - estate industry, and although downstream deep - processing orders increased in mid - August, overall demand remained stable. Profits decreased as prices fell. Glass prices follow the real - world logic due to near - month delivery. [7] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: With the approaching of the Jackson Hole central bank meeting, the expectation of a rate cut has increased, which is short - term positive for copper prices. However, high tariffs and the slowdown of the US economy pose risks. Copper mine production is growing faster than expected, and domestic demand will weaken marginally. The strong copper price is hard to sustain. [8][9] - **Aluminum**: On August 19, the US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list. Aluminum prices fell slightly on Wednesday. The fundamentals of aluminum have weakened, with domestic social inventories increasing significantly and LME inventories also rising. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited medium - term upside. [9] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, increasing production costs and causing losses for some regenerative aluminum plants. Demand is weak as it is the off - season. Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited. [10] - **Tin**: The combined开工 rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased slightly. The supply of tin ore is tight but improving, and refined tin production has not decreased significantly. Demand is weak, and although inventory decreased this week, downstream procurement is still cautious. Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and the upside is restricted. [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Wednesday, lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit down. The prices of lithium carbonate and lithium ore decreased. The industry's profit situation has improved, and production enthusiasm is high. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main industrial - silicon contract fell. The spot price decreased, and the futures price was at a discount. With the weakening of black metals and the oscillation of polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to oscillate within a range. [11] - **Polysilicon**: On Wednesday, the main polysilicon contract fell slightly. Spot prices were stable, and the number of warehouse receipts increased, indicating increased hedging pressure. The photovoltaic industry is expected to regulate the market, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, with a possibility of weakening later. [12][13] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: EIA data showed a significant decrease in US crude oil and gasoline inventories last week, leading to a rebound in oil prices. However, Cushing inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. Due to the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and long - term supply increases, the long - term outlook for oil prices is still bearish, and short - term stability is expected. [14] - **Asphalt**: The processing margin of asphalt is approaching the previous low, but the crude - oil processing margin has rebounded slightly, providing some price support. The spot price has slightly recovered, but inventory de - stocking is limited. With the expected decline of crude oil prices due to OPEC+ production increases, asphalt is expected to remain in a weak - oscillation pattern. [14] - **PX**: The adjustment of upstream refinery capacity in China has strengthened the support for downstream chemicals. Although PX is in a tight supply situation in the short term, it is expected to oscillate as PTA device recovery is limited. [15] - **PTA**: The polyester sector rebounded due to capacity adjustment, and PTA was also lifted. Downstream demand has slightly rebounded, but processing margins are low, limiting supply. PTA prices are expected to oscillate narrowly, with the upside restricted by crude oil prices and terminal orders in September. [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The restriction on new capacity and excess raw - material capacity has supported ethylene glycol prices. Although port inventory has decreased slightly, factory inventory is still high, and supply is expected to increase slightly. With the recovery of terminal orders in August, ethylene glycol is expected to maintain an oscillation pattern. [16] - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price rose slightly due to sector resonance. Terminal orders have increased slightly, but inventory accumulation is limited. It is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term. [16] - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang followed the futures and strengthened, while the basis weakened. Inland demand increased as some methanol plants restarted, but port inventory increased due to imports and plant overhauls. The price is expected to oscillate and rise in the short term and maintain a weak - oscillation pattern in the medium term. [17] - **PP**: The supply pressure of PP has increased as device开工 rates have risen and new capacity is to be put into operation. Although downstream demand has increased slightly, there is no obvious peak - season stocking. With policy support, PP prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the 09 contract and attention should be paid to the 01 contract for peak - season stocking. [17] - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure of LLDPE remains high, and demand has shown a turning point. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, while the 01 contract is supported by policy expectations, and attention should be paid to demand, stocking, and policy implementation. [18] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The November soybean contract on the CBOT rose slightly. US soybean growers urged the government to reach a trade agreement with China, and the results of the Midwest crop inspection were mixed. [19] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of full - stockpiling of soybeans and soybean meal in domestic oil mills has been relieved. Canadian rapeseed imports are restricted, but China's purchase of Australian rapeseed has eased the supply risk. The price of soybean and rapeseed meal has risen, and there is still a risk preference for rapeseed meal. [19] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: ICE rapeseed rebounded after two days of decline. The supply of domestic rapeseed oil is expected to shrink as port inventory decreases and imports are low. The cost of soybean oil is expected to be strong, with high short - term inventory pressure but improved supply - demand in the fourth quarter. [20] - **Palm Oil**: The prices of CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, Malaysian palm - oil futures, and international crude oil rose. The export of Malaysian palm oil in August 1 - 20 increased significantly, but the inverted soybean - palm oil price spread may affect future demand. [20] - **Corn**: The national corn price is slightly weak. With the listing of spring corn, sufficient supply, and the potential impact of state - reserve auctions and rice auctions, the corn market remains weak. [20] - **Pigs**: Pig prices may have a seasonal rebound from late August to September, but the amplitude is limited. The cost of secondary fattening has increased due to stricter transportation inspections. The spot price has stabilized, and attention should be paid to the consumption peak during the start of the school term. [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the market anticipates the possible end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, leading to a decline in global risk - aversion sentiment. The market awaits the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium for US interest - rate policy clues, with the US dollar remaining volatile and global risk appetite rising. Domestically, China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. Policy stimulus expectations are strengthening, and the short - term uncertainty of tariff risks has decreased, leading to an overall increase in domestic risk appetite [2]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, with a short - term cautious long - position strategy. Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate and correct at a high level, and it is advisable to watch cautiously. In the commodity sector, black commodities are expected to correct in the short term, non - ferrous metals to oscillate, energy and chemicals to oscillate weakly, and precious metals to oscillate at a high level, all with a cautious watching strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Macroeconomic and Financial - **Macroeconomic Situation**: Overseas, the expected end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict reduces global risk - aversion, and the market awaits US interest - rate policy clues. Domestically, economic data in July was weak, but policy stimulus expectations are rising, and the short - term tariff risk uncertainty is reduced [2]. - **Asset Performance and Strategies**: The stock index is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term (cautious long - position). Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate and correct at a high level (cautious watching). Black commodities are expected to correct (cautious watching), non - ferrous metals to oscillate (cautious watching), energy and chemicals to oscillate weakly (cautious watching), and precious metals to oscillate at a high level (cautious watching) [2]. Stock Index - **Market Performance**: The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of insurance, military, and securities sectors. - **Fundamentals and Policy**: China's economic data in July was weak. Policy stimulus expectations are rising, and the short - term tariff risk uncertainty is reduced. The short - term upward macro - driving force is weakening, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. A short - term cautious long - position strategy is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Precious metals declined slightly on Tuesday. The probability of a September interest - rate cut fell below 90%, and inflation data showed resistance to the decline in inflation. - **Outlook**: The long - term positive logic remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to entry opportunities at key points [4]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Performance**: Steel futures and spot prices continued to decline slightly on Tuesday, with low trading volumes. - **Fundamentals**: Demand is weakening, inventory is rising, and high - temperature and rainy weather restricts building material demand. Supply is showing signs of reduction, and a short - term oscillating and weakening trend is expected [4][5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: Iron ore futures and spot prices continued to decline slightly on Tuesday. - **Fundamentals**: Steel profits are high, but iron - making water production may decline due to approaching events. Supply is increasing, and port inventory is rising. Iron ore prices may weaken in the short term [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Performance**: Spot and futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese declined on Tuesday. - **Fundamentals**: Manufacturers' production enthusiasm is high, and production capacity is increasing. A short - term oscillating and weakening trend is expected [6]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The main soda ash contract was weak on Tuesday. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and profits are declining. The high - supply, high - inventory, and weak - demand pattern persists, and the upside space is limited [7]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The main glass contract was weak on Tuesday. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is stable, demand is difficult to improve significantly, and profits are decreasing. The price has declined recently [7]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - **Market Performance**: The US economy is slowing down, and copper demand is expected to weaken. - **Outlook**: Copper prices may not remain strong in the long run as supply is relatively sufficient and demand is weakening [9]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices declined on Tuesday, and the overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic social inventory is rising, and the medium - term upside space is limited. The short - term oscillation trend is expected, but the rebound foundation is weakening [9]. Aluminum Alloy - **Market Performance**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and production costs are rising. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, but the upside space is limited due to weak demand [9]. Tin - **Market Performance**: The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased slightly. Terminal demand is weak, and inventory decreased this week. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, but the upside space is restricted by high - tariff risks, production resumption expectations, and weak demand [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main lithium carbonate contract declined on Tuesday. - **Fundamentals**: There is a short - term positive impact on supply, and the industry profit is improving. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main industrial silicon contract declined on Tuesday. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate within a range as black commodities weaken and polysilicon oscillates [11]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main polysilicon contract declined on Tuesday. - **Fundamentals**: The number of warehouse receipts is increasing, and the industry is promoting self - regulation. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices declined slightly as the market assesses the prospects of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. - **Outlook**: Oil prices are expected to remain weak in the long term [14]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: The asphalt price is following the decline of crude oil, and the spot market is weak. - **Outlook**: It is expected to remain in a weak oscillation pattern as inventory reduction is limited [14]. PX - **Market Performance**: Crude oil price decline led to a correction in the energy - chemical sector. PX is in a tight supply situation in the short term. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate and wait for changes in PTA plants [14]. PTA - **Market Performance**: Pakistan's anti - dumping on PTA exports has a limited impact. Downstream demand has rebounded slightly. - **Outlook**: The supply is limited, and demand is rising slightly. The price is supported but the upside space is restricted [15]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: Port inventory has decreased slightly, and downstream demand has rebounded. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are expected to increase slightly, and it will maintain an oscillating pattern [15]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The short - fiber price declined due to sector resonance. Terminal orders have increased slightly. - **Outlook**: It may continue to be short - sold in the medium term, waiting for further improvement in terminal orders [15]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: There is a regional differentiation, with the inland strong and the port weak. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [16][17]. PP - **Market Performance**: Supply pressure is increasing, and downstream demand is rising slightly. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should be monitored for peak - season restocking [17]. LLDPE - **Market Performance**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand is showing signs of improvement. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should be monitored for demand and restocking [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - **Market Performance**: The CBOT November soybean contract declined. The market is waiting for the results of the ProFarmer crop tour. - **Field Conditions**: The number of soybean pods in some states is higher than average, and moist soil may promote growth [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Performance**: The pressure of soybean and soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills has eased. - **Supply Situation**: Canadian rapeseed imports are restricted, but the purchase of Australian rapeseed may diversify supply sources [19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Rapeseed oil port inventory is decreasing, and soybean oil has high - inventory pressure in the short term. - **Outlook**: Rapeseed oil supply is expected to shrink, and soybean oil's supply - demand situation will improve in the fourth quarter [19]. Fats and Oils - **Market Performance**: International crude oil and Chicago soybean oil prices declined, which will drag down the Malaysian palm oil market. - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil production has a small increase, and exports have improved significantly. However, the inverted price difference may affect future demand [19]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Northeast corn prices are weak, and the market is inactive. - **Supply Outlook**: New corn will be listed in August, and the supply is expected to be sufficient. Corn futures are weak [20]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The spot pig price is weak, and the supply is increasing. - **Outlook**: The price decline has slowed down, and attention should be paid to the consumption peak during the start of the school term [20][21].

Group 1 - The article discusses the upcoming expiration of the tariff suspension measures between China and the U.S. on August 12, and the potential for easing trade risks based on recent trade agreements with Japan and the EU [7] - It highlights the ongoing economic situation in July, characterized by strong supply but weak demand, indicating a mixed economic outlook [11] - The article notes that the Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown weakness due to low capacity utilization in mid and downstream sectors, which are considered two underlying factors affecting PPI performance [12] Group 2 - The financial data for July indicates a significant rebound in M2 year-on-year, primarily driven by an active capital market [15] - The article mentions that the U.S. has established a three-tiered tariff system as part of its trade agreements, with significant uncertainties regarding the execution of investment and procurement commitments [17][18] - It emphasizes the long-term and targeted nature of tariff leverage, with secondary and transshipment tariffs gradually taking shape [18]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for Apple's iPhone sales in the September quarter from 50 million units (a 7% year-over-year decline) to 54 million units (flat year-over-year) due to multiple positive factors [1] - Key factors supporting this optimistic outlook include extended iPhone replacement cycles, upcoming new model designs, and structural gross margin improvements [1] - Concerns regarding peak tariff risks have largely dissipated, and regulatory impacts on short-term performance are weaker than market expectations, although they remain a long-term risk [1] Group 2 - The production adjustment primarily targets the iPhone 16 and Pro Max models, with an additional 2 million units of capacity [1] - Analysts expect the iPhone 17 series production to remain between 80 million and 85 million units in the second half of 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 5% to 1% [2] - Current market estimates for iPhone sales are trending upward, and historically, Apple's stock price tends to expand in valuation during estimate revision periods [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View Copper - In the short - term, copper prices are expected to range - bound between 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton. Macro factors like US economic data and tariff policies, along with fundamental supply - demand and inventory conditions, will influence the price. The market is in a state of short - term supply - demand weakness during the off - season, but "tight mining end + demand resilience" provides price support [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton this week. The market will experience a game between short - term supply disturbances and over - capacity. Aluminum prices are expected to face pressure at high levels in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging from 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Key factors include supply and demand fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, and inventory changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract reference range of 19,400 - 20,400 yuan/ton. The market is affected by factors such as tight scrap aluminum supply and weak terminal demand [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices may continue to oscillate in the short - term. Upward rebound requires continuous inventory reduction and improved interest - rate cut expectations without overseas economic recession. Downward breakthrough needs stronger TC and refined zinc inventory accumulation. The current supply - demand situation provides limited support for continuous price increase, but low inventory provides price support [9]. Tin - If the supply of Burmese tin ore recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high and oscillate. Supply is currently tight, and demand is expected to be weak [12]. Nickel - Nickel prices are expected to adjust within a range in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward price space [14]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with the main contract operating range of 13,000 - 13,500 yuan/ton. Cost support is strengthening, but the weak spot demand restricts the fundamentals [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate widely in a relatively strong range, around 85,000 yuan/ton. The market is affected by short - term news, and the fundamentals are improving. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and consider light - position long - entry at low prices [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 79,435 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.05%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 210 yuan/ton [1]. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 53.62 yuan/ton to 65TT yuan/ton, a decline of 4.54%. The import profit and loss increased by 119.85 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamentals - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. The import volume was 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74% [1]. - The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 9.80 million tons to 61.96 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.79% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 20,710 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.24%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium increased by 30 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamentals - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11% [3]. - The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 2.4 million tons to 58.80 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.26% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 month - to - month spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamentals - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.31% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 22,510 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.22%. The import profit and loss increased by 80.61 yuan/ton to - 1,813 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamentals - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, the import volume was 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97% [9]. - The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 1.60 million tons to 12.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.13% [9]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 700 yuan/ton to 269,500 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.26%. The import profit and loss decreased by 717.98 yuan/ton to - 16,507.39 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamentals - In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94% [12]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 123,350 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.36%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,100 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamentals - China's refined nickel production in the reference period decreased by 3,220 tons to 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The import volume increased by 10,325 tons to 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 13,200 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.38%. The 2509 - 2510 month - to - month spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamentals - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) decreased by 6.83 million tons to 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83% [16]. - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.50 million tons to 49.65 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.00% [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 82,000 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.23%. The 2509 - 2511 month - to - month spread decreased by 100 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [19]. Fundamentals - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62% [19]. - The total lithium carbonate inventory in July decreased by 2,012 tons to 97,846 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.01% [19].

瑞银集团石油分析师乔凡尼·斯汤诺沃（Giovanni Staunovo）表示，由于市场参与者降低对石油供应中断 的预期，油价在最近几日下跌。这很可能是由于美国只对印度加征关税，而非针对所有俄罗斯石油购买 方。 鉴于南美供应增加和受制裁国家产量富有韧性，瑞银集团把今年年底布伦特原油期货价格目标点位从此 前的每桶68美元下调至每桶62美元。 （文章来源：新华财经） 美国金融服务机构BOK金融公司负责交易的副总裁丹尼斯·基斯勒（Dennis Kissler）说，原油市场大多 人认为美国总统特朗普与俄罗斯总统普京会晤将会达成某种暂时协议，从而让俄罗斯暂时保持石油出口 的坚实。 美国商品与股票经纪商StoneX集团市场分析师拉赞·希拉勒（Razan Hilal）表示，市场定价已经反映出普 京与特朗普本周会谈的潜在市场利空影响，这与全球整体关税风险和欧佩克产油国生产策略也一致。 新华财经纽约8月11日电（记者刘亚南）由于市场在俄罗斯与美国两国首脑会晤前保持观望和一些投资 者在油价连续走低后逢低买入，国际油价在隔夜市场由跌转涨，11日盘中维持窄幅盘整，收盘时国际油 价小幅上涨。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所9月交货的轻质原 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry has shown mixed performance, with Under Armour reporting a 4% year-on-year revenue decline in FY2026Q1, amounting to $1.1 billion, and a net loss of $2.612 million [2][17]. - The North American market saw a 5% revenue decline to $670 million, while the international market's revenue decreased by 1% to $470 million, with EMEA market revenue increasing by 10% [3][17]. - Adidas reported a 14% year-on-year revenue growth in H1 2025, while HUGO BOSS and Ralph Lauren showed varied performance, with HUGO BOSS experiencing a 1% revenue increase in Q2 2025 and Ralph Lauren achieving a 14% revenue growth [6][59]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Performance - Under Armour's FY2026Q1 revenue decreased by 4% to $1.1 billion, with a net loss of $2.612 million compared to a loss of $30.5 million in the previous year [2][17]. - HUGO BOSS reported a 1% revenue increase in Q2 2025, while EBIT grew by 15% [6][57]. - Ralph Lauren's net revenue increased by 14% to $1.7 billion, with a net profit growth of 30.7% [59][60]. 2. Market Trends - The textile and apparel sector saw a 4.23% increase in the SW textile and apparel index, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3 percentage points [19]. - The SW textile manufacturing PE-TTM is at 21.66 times, while the apparel and home textile PE-TTM is at 28.86 times, indicating varying valuation levels across sub-sectors [22]. 3. Regional Performance - North America experienced a 5% revenue decline, while EMEA markets grew by 10% [3][4]. - The Asia-Pacific market saw a 10% revenue decline, with Latin America declining by 15% [3][4]. 4. Consumer Behavior - The retail sales of sports and entertainment products grew by 22.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating strong demand in this segment [11]. - The overall retail sales in China for June 2025 reached 4.23 trillion yuan, growing by 4.8% year-on-year, but showing a decline compared to previous months [48][49]. 5. Future Outlook - For FY2026Q2, Under Armour expects a revenue decline of 6%-7%, with a projected gross margin decrease of 3.4-3.6 percentage points [4][18]. - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the textile and apparel industry, with varying performance expected across different regions and product categories [4][18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★, suggesting "Buy on Dips" [1] - Silver: ★★, recommending "Buy on Rebounds" [1] - Copper: ★★★, indicating "Hold Long Positions" [1] - Zinc: ★, "Cautiously Bullish" [1] - Lead: ★, "Rebound Under Pressure" [1] - Tin: ★★, "Rebound Under Pressure" [1] - Aluminum: ★, "Rebound Under Pressure" [1] - Nickel: ★★, "Rebound Under Pressure" [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★, "Cautiously Bullish" [1] - Polysilicon: ★★, "Cautiously Bullish" [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, "Bullish" [1] Core Views - Gold and silver prices are affected by factors such as US - Russia summit, US policies, and central bank gold purchases. Long - term strategic allocation of gold is recommended, and silver has a long - term upward trend [1][2][3][4] - Copper prices are boosted by overseas copper concentrate disruptions, a weak US dollar, and better - than - expected domestic exports. Short - term long positions should be held, and long - term optimism is maintained [1][7][8] - Zinc shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Short - term cautious bullishness is advised, and long - term opportunities to short at high prices should be grasped [1][10][11] - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to the off - season effect and weak downstream demand. Short - term shorting on rebounds is recommended [1][14][15] - Nickel prices face pressure on rebounds due to increasing supply and high inventory. Shorting on rebounds is suggested [1][18][19] - Lithium carbonate prices are supported by short - term fundamentals, funds, and sentiment. Long positions should be held [1][22][23] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold prices are at a high level due to factors such as the upcoming Putin - Trump meeting and continuous central bank gold purchases [2] - **Basic Logic**: The US gold tariff issue, high global tariffs, and the upcoming US - Russia summit affect gold prices. In the long - term, the logic of a gold bull market remains unchanged [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, there is clear support for gold at around 770, and silver is in a trading range of 9100 - 9350. Long - term long positions are recommended [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated strongly, testing the pressure level of 79,000 [7] - **Industrial Logic**: There have been continuous disruptions in copper concentrates globally, and domestic copper production has increased. The spot market is tight in the short - term, but downstream demand is weak due to the off - season and high prices [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long positions should be held, and long - term optimism is maintained. Shanghai copper is expected to be in the range of [78000, 80500], and London copper in the range of [9650, 9950] USD/ton [8] Zinc - **Market Review**: London zinc oscillated strongly, while Shanghai zinc traded in a narrow range [10] - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025, and domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase. Demand from downstream industries shows mixed performance [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term cautious bullishness is advised, and long - term opportunities to short at high prices should be grasped. Shanghai zinc is expected to be in the range of [22400, 23000], and London zinc in the range of [2780, 2880] USD/ton [11] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina prices declined again [13] - **Industrial Logic**: The cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased in July, and inventory increased. Downstream demand is weak. Overseas bauxite imports are high, and alumina supply is expected to be loose [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term shorting on rebounds is recommended, and attention should be paid to the inventory build - up during the off - season. The main operating range for Shanghai aluminum is [20000, 20900] [15] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices faced pressure on rebounds, and stainless steel prices rebounded and then declined [17] - **Industrial Logic**: Nickel ore prices in the Philippines are weak, and domestic refined nickel production increased. Stainless steel inventory pressure re - emerged during the off - season [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Shorting on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel is recommended, and attention should be paid to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [119000, 122000] [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 increased in price with increasing positions, rising by more than 5% [21] - **Industrial Logic**: Terminal demand is about to enter the peak season, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch. Production increased, and inventory increased slightly [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long positions should be held in the range of [75000, 81000] [23]

宏观金银周报 •国内数据喜忧参半，海外降息预期增加，金银走高 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 2025年8月8日 王维芒 资格编号：Z0000148 摘要 【市场海外宏观】本周资本市场受中国反内卷、治理通缩等政策影响，工业品短暂调整过 后，本周继续明显走高。美国通胀预期较高，就业市场离奇疲软，但消费者信心走高。关税 基本落地，扰动边际递减，影响小于4月份结果 【国内经济表现】7月国内PMI数据回落，不过进出口数据表现韧性。房地产市场何时止跌 需要继续关注。后续关注中美关税谈判结果，以及抢出口的连续性。 【金银近期策略】美国降息预期走高，美欧等关税风险影响逐渐消退，短期盘面或强势震 荡。考虑到短期缺乏风险因素集中爆发，黄金大幅冲破前高的概率较低，在此位置不建议短 线追多，等待破区间高点或者向下回调再做短线单子入场打算。中长期多国货币政策宽松预 期，央行买黄金，黄金与其他资产相关性较低，长期黄金继续战略配置，【770-796】。白 银跟随黄金情绪积极，中长期来看，白银基本面受到经济需求支撑，各国宽财政刺激，工业 需求坚挺，长期向上趋势不变。【9100-9360】。 【风险提示】关税 ...