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华泰证券:四季度出口增速中枢或小幅回落 但仍保持较高景气度
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-14 00:10
Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a rebound in China's export growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3% in September 2025, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 6.6% [1] - Import values also showed significant growth, rising by 7.4% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 1.8% [1] - The trade surplus increased to $90.5 billion, reflecting an additional $8.8 billion compared to the previous year, indicating a positive contribution from net exports to economic growth [1] Export and Import Analysis - September 2025 saw a recovery in dollar-denominated exports, with growth rebounding from 4.4% in August to 8.3% [1] - Imports experienced a notable increase, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.4%, up from 1.3% previously [1] - The trade surplus reached $90.5 billion, marking an increase of $8.8 billion year-on-year, which continues to support economic growth through net exports [1] Future Outlook - The demand for exports related to the AI industry is expected to remain strong, alongside ongoing investments from the Belt and Road Initiative, which may provide structural support for China's export growth [1] - A recovery in the global manufacturing cycle and an expansionary fiscal policy overseas could stabilize external demand [1] - Despite a potential slight decline in export growth rates due to high base effects in the fourth quarter, the overall outlook remains positive with sustained high levels of economic activity [1]