地产和消费的进一步政策，可能要经过上半年的演绎之后，才会相机抉择。 中央经济工作会议定调是比较温和的托底而非强刺激，更多是对 2025 年已有政策的延续，没有较大的 调整转向。 政策基调是稳妥布局、渐进推进，想要稳住目前的增长水平、部分减轻通缩压力，但没有体现出对实现 再通胀、打破通缩循环进行强刺激或较大路径调整的诉求。 考虑到这些因素，我们对 2026 年的增长，特别是名义 GDP 增长的预期，还是保持在大概 4% 出头的名 义 GDP 增速，这比市场的一致预期更保守一点。 对于明年的财政政策、货币政策、房地产和消费政策而言：财政尽管总量上比较温和，但可能会前置到 一季度和上半年，用基建投资作为抓手；货币政策真正降息降准空间不是特别大；地产的进一步扶持政 策和消费的进一步刺激政策，可能要靠形势的演绎，也就是形势比人强，要经过上半年的演绎之后，政 策才会相机抉择。 特别是中国占全球出口市场的份额已经15%，未来五年有望再上层楼，达到16%~17%。也就是说中国 出口增速依然会高于全球贸易增长，会得到更多的市场份额。 为什么去中国化不会使得中国份额下降？总体而言，这里面有很多所谓的贸易转移，还是中国企业走向 了 ...

事件点评 2025 年 12 月 10 日 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：海关总署公布 2025 年 11 月进出口商品统计快讯，按美元计价，我国进口 同比+1.9%（前值为+1.0%，下同），环比+1.6%(-9.6%)；出口同比+5.9%（-1.1%）， 环比+8.2%（-7.1%）；贸易顺差同比+14.7%（-5.9%），环比+24.0%（-0.4%）。11 月出口同比由负转正。 11 月进出口数据关注点 11 月进出口及贸易顺差同比增速均回升，出口同比+5.9%（-1.1%），环比+8.2% （-7.1%），从出口金额来看，已处于 2021 年以来高位。 1、11 月出口增速如期回升转正 出口增速回升转正，外贸仍具较强韧性 固定收益研究团队 ——2025 年 11 月进出口数据点评 10 月出口同比为负主要与 2024 年 9、10 月的基数错位有关，同时贸易摩擦也影 响了 10 月出口节奏。中美在吉隆坡会谈及釜山会晤后，贸易协定的 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's goods trade has shown steady growth in 2023, with exports reaching 22.12 trillion yuan in the first ten months, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, demonstrating the resilience and vitality of the Chinese economy amidst rising unilateralism and protectionism [1]. Group 1: Factors Contributing to Export Growth - The complete industrial chain in China provides high cost-performance, supporting stable orders. China has a comprehensive industrial base with over 200 major industrial products leading globally, which enhances its supply chain advantages [2]. - Emerging markets have contributed significantly to the increase in China's export scale. Trade with ASEAN reached 6.18 trillion yuan, up 9.1%, accounting for 16.6% of China's total foreign trade [2]. - High-quality "Made in China" products are driving export growth. The demand for clean energy equipment has surged, with double-digit growth in exports of green products like electric locomotives and wind turbines [2]. Group 2: Structural and Policy Support - Digitalization has reduced transaction costs and improved export efficiency. Cross-border e-commerce exports reached approximately 1.63 trillion yuan, growing by 6.6% [3]. - Policy support has provided a safety net for foreign trade enterprises. The number of foreign trade entities exceeded 700,000 for the first time, surpassing last year's total [3]. - The ongoing global supply chain adjustments present both challenges and opportunities, with a focus on enhancing trade quality and efficiency as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3].

Core Viewpoint - The impact of alpha factors on China's export growth is increasingly significant, with expectations of a 1-3% growth in 2026 despite potential risks from alpha factors [1][4]. Group 1: Alpha Factors Impacting Exports - The article emphasizes the importance of alpha factors such as tariff changes, order front-loading, re-export regulations, and currency fluctuations on exports, moving away from reliance on beta factors [1][7]. - The new trade pattern is shaped by tariff shocks and geopolitical shifts, particularly the "interconnected yet separate" relationship between China and the U.S. [2][9]. - The performance of new industries in exports is attributed to China's internal economic transformation and industrial upgrades [2][14]. Group 2: 2026 Export Outlook - Order front-loading effects are largely absorbed, with limited risk of further exposure in the future [3][22]. - Re-export regulations are expected to have a minimal impact, as the focus is primarily on low-value or non-processed re-exports [3][25]. - The likelihood of increased tariffs is low, with diminishing impacts from existing tariffs due to effective countermeasures by China [3][32]. - Currency appreciation is anticipated to reduce export price increments, but the overall export volume may remain stable [3][37]. - The global economic outlook is expected to support China's export growth, with IMF predicting a recovery in global GDP growth in 2026 [4][41].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a rebound in China's export growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3% in September 2025, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 6.6% [1] - Import values also showed significant growth, rising by 7.4% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 1.8% [1] - The trade surplus increased to $90.5 billion, reflecting an additional $8.8 billion compared to the previous year, indicating a positive contribution from net exports to economic growth [1] Export and Import Analysis - September 2025 saw a recovery in dollar-denominated exports, with growth rebounding from 4.4% in August to 8.3% [1] - Imports experienced a notable increase, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.4%, up from 1.3% previously [1] - The trade surplus reached $90.5 billion, marking an increase of $8.8 billion year-on-year, which continues to support economic growth through net exports [1] Future Outlook - The demand for exports related to the AI industry is expected to remain strong, alongside ongoing investments from the Belt and Road Initiative, which may provide structural support for China's export growth [1] - A recovery in the global manufacturing cycle and an expansionary fiscal policy overseas could stabilize external demand [1] - Despite a potential slight decline in export growth rates due to high base effects in the fourth quarter, the overall outlook remains positive with sustained high levels of economic activity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent 90-day extension of the US-China tariff war is expected to impact China's export performance in 2023, but the country remains committed to expanding high-level foreign trade and maintaining growth with traditional and emerging trade partners [1][2]. Group 1: Export Performance - Despite high tariffs affecting exports to the US, China's exports to ASEAN, the EU, and Belt and Road Initiative countries grew by 14.8%, 8.2%, and 11.7% respectively from January to July [1]. - In July, China's total goods imports and exports increased by 6.7% year-on-year, with exports growing by 8%, marking a 0.8 percentage point acceleration from the previous month [2]. - The export of mechanical and electrical products rose by 9.3% in the first seven months, with integrated circuit exports increasing by 21.8% [2]. Group 2: Market Resilience and Competitiveness - China's foreign trade has shown strong resilience and vitality despite a rapidly changing trade environment and increased uncertainties [2]. - The country's high-tech product exports grew by 7.2% in the first seven months, reflecting improvements in product structure and technology content [2]. - Private enterprises, which saw an 8.7% year-on-year increase in exports, are actively expanding markets and adapting to external market fluctuations [2].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **Chinese economy**, focusing on **trade dynamics** including exports and imports, particularly in relation to the United States and other regions. Key Insights and Arguments 1. **Export Growth Trends** - In July, the year-on-year export growth rate increased slightly from 5.9% in June to 7.2% in July. However, seasonally adjusted exports showed a slight month-on-month decline, indicating weakening momentum in export growth [1][4]. 2. **Exports to the United States** - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 3% month-on-month in July, with a year-on-year decline expanding from 16.1% in June to 21.6% in July. This reflects a continued low level of exports to the U.S., although slightly higher than in April and May [2][4]. 3. **Regional Export Performance** - Exports to ASEAN countries saw a month-on-month decline of 2.6%, but year-on-year growth remained robust at 16.6%. In contrast, exports to the EU grew by 9.2% year-on-year, while exports to Japan slowed to a 2% growth rate [2][4]. 4. **Import Growth** - July imports showed a year-on-year growth rate of 4.1%, up from 1.1% in June. The actual import volume growth rate also improved from 3% to 4.9%. Notably, the decline in the import of a basket of commodities narrowed from 9% to 4% [3][4]. 5. **Impact of Trade Policies** - Trade uncertainties remain high, with new tariffs announced by the U.S. affecting over 70 economies. The potential for further tariffs on semiconductors could significantly impact China's exports to the U.S., which currently account for over 20% of its export volume [4][4]. 6. **Future Export Projections** - The expectation is that China's year-on-year export decline to the U.S. will widen in the second half of the year, with projections indicating a 1% growth in exports for 2025, followed by a potential 3% decline in 2026 due to tariff impacts [4][4]. Additional Important Content - **Product-Specific Export Trends** - Key products such as electronics saw a slowdown in export growth, with mobile phone exports declining by 22% year-on-year. In contrast, integrated circuit exports continued to grow [2][17]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators** - The overall trade surplus and nominal import/export growth rates are illustrated in various charts, indicating fluctuating trends over the years [6][10]. - **Currency Fluctuations** - The Chinese yuan experienced a mild depreciation against the U.S. dollar in July, which may influence trade dynamics [20][22]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the Chinese economy, particularly in the context of international trade.

Group 1: Export Performance - In July, China's exports (in USD) increased by 7.2% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 5.9%, but decreased by 1.1% month-on-month[5] - Exports to the EU improved, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2% in July, contributing 1.4 percentage points to overall export growth[17] - The overall export growth is supported by strong performance in machinery and electrical products, which saw an 8% year-on-year increase, contributing 4.8 percentage points to total exports[18] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite a negative growth rate in U.S. imports, China's exports remained resilient due to a shift in import sources, with ASEAN countries benefiting from tariff exemptions[6] - The U.S. demand has shown signs of exhaustion, with a significant drop in imports from China, which fell by 44% year-on-year in June[6] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariffs between the U.S. and China are expected to continue impacting trade dynamics, with a potential decline in exports anticipated[30] Group 3: Future Outlook - The export outlook may face challenges as U.S. demand is expected to decline further, which could indirectly affect China's exports through reduced demand in ASEAN countries[22] - The increase in tariffs on ASEAN countries starting August 1 may lead to a decrease in their export activities, putting additional pressure on China's export performance[8] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations remains a significant risk factor for future export stability[30]

Group 1 - China's export scale exceeded 13 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, achieving a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, marking a historical high for the same period [1] - In June, the total import and export scale reached 3.85 trillion yuan, with exports at 2.34 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, indicating a recovery in growth rates [1] - The complete industrial chain and continuous technological upgrades provide a strong foundation for China's export resilience amid challenging external environments [1][2] Group 2 - China's manufacturing value added has consistently exceeded 30 trillion yuan annually since the 14th Five-Year Plan, maintaining its position as the world's largest manufacturing country for 15 consecutive years [2] - High-tech product exports grew by 9.2% in the first half of the year, with significant increases in exports of high-end machine tools, ships, and marine engineering equipment [2] - China's trade partnerships expanded, with over 190 countries and regions experiencing growth in imports and exports, and the number of trading partners with a trade scale exceeding 50 billion yuan increased by 5 compared to the previous year [2] Group 3 - Exports to emerging markets contributed significantly to growth, with imports and exports to Africa increasing by 14.4% and to Central Asia by 13.8% in the first half of the year [3] - Despite a decline in export growth to the U.S., China's export resilience is supported by strong product competitiveness and market diversification [3] - Various international organizations have downgraded global trade growth forecasts for 2025, but China has maintained its own pace and rhythm in trade [3]